Can 3D save Hollywood?

Hollywood is in need of a financial Superhero. Box office revenues and ticket sales have been flat the last three years while DVD sales decline and costs continue to soar. In fact, major studio releases now average $78 million to produce and $40 m. to market. Studios are reacting by playing it safe creatively. In the last twelve months, 17 of the top 23 grossing films were sequels. More worrisome is the abrupt decline of DVD sales and the painfully slow adoption of Blu-Ray. In the length of time it took the DVD to reach 20 percent penetration, Blu-Ray has attained a measly 6%. With improvements in the quality of the 3D viewing experience and a proven track-record of bringing in higher revenues, the buzz around Tinseltown is that 3D could be an industry windfall.

But will this save Hollywood? That answer will be heard loud and clear this Christmas when James Cameron's 3D epic "Avatar" hits theaters. With an estimated production budget of $350 m., if this film achieves the success of his last release (Titanic), Hollywood will have found its next Superhero: 3D.

Angel investing in hard times

In the new book Start Up Nation- The Story of Israel's Economic Miracle, Dan Senor and Saul Singer cite the importance of entrepreneurs, and their investors, in building a robust Israeli high-tech industry. The sector represents 16% of GDP and 25% of exports.

That model is now under siege, however, as venture capital firms (VCs) in Israel are bleeding money.  According to PWC's "Money Tree" report, $10 billion in venture capital was raised this decade but less than $1 billion earned back through IPOs and acquisitions. With returns like that, VC's are becoming more conservative toward riskier, seed-stage companies. According to the Israel Venture Center, venture investment tanked by 50% compared to the first three quarters of last year.

IVC Chairman Zeev Holtzman said in an October 20 press release:

The future is expected to be even worse. There is a major shortage of capital for new investments by Israeli VCs, and as foreign VC funds fail to find Israeli co-investors, they will further reduce their exposure to Israel... The entire high-tech industry is at risk."

In this environment, start-ups are relying even more on seed funds and proven Angel investors. However, sometimes even Angels hit turbulence.

Hacking higher education

The higher education system in the US is broken. Average tuition at four-year American universities has reached $25,143 plus an additional $1,077 for textbooks. In fact, education fees have outpaced inflation for 29 of the past 30 years. Foreign enrollment fell by 3% this year, the first decline in 5 years. Even US Education Secretary Arne Duncan is encouraging more creative pricing models. Moreover, many Gen Y students feel the traditional classroom environment is not meeting their needs (see this video prepared by students in the digital ethnography class taught by Michael Wesch at Kansas State University. Like other industries that were transformed by the Internet, higher education may be facing a major transition.

Technologists argue that higher education is a just another digital information industry - like music or newspapers - that can be peer-produced, delivered as bits and curated by a community. Already, companies such as Flat World Knowledge are offering open-source, ad-supported textbooks. Self-learners who don't need the credits can take Open CourseWare classes from nearly 200 leading universities around the world. For example, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology now offers all of its 1,900 courses online through the Open CourseWare site.  MIT also posts materials to other social media sites like YouTube, Flickr and iTunesU. Other universities with their own open courseware resources include Yale, Stanford, UC Berkeley, Notre Dame and Columbia.

However, most students (and their employers), prefer courses for academic credit. Recognizing that accreditation is a scarce commodity, many universities actually charge a premium for online classes, tacking on a "technology fee". For-profit companies like Apollo Group (APOL), the parent of University of Phoenix, have built very profitable businesses by offering online degrees at nearly the same cost as private universities but with significantly lower expenses. While this has been great for Apollo ($3.14 billion in revenue last year and $11 billion market cap), it isn't particularly helpful to the 10% of the US population without a job or the 1 billion people earning less than $1 per day. Now a new generation of start-ups is applying technology and social media toward lowering the cost of higher education… to nearly zero.

Pushy Israelis, phony americans: US-Israel communication styles

At times, American and Israeli communications styles can seem incompatible. One famously rocky relationship is captured in former US diplomat Aaron David Miller's 2008 book, The Much Too Promised Land.  Miller relates that during his first meeting with President Clinton in 1996, Binyamin Netanyahu lectured the President on Arab-Israeli issues, prompting Clinton to expostulate afterwards, "Who the f*ck does he think he is? Who's the f*cking superpower here?"

In broad terms, American politeness appears hypocritical to Israelis while Israeli directness is perceived as aggression by Americans. Quips renowned Israeli technology investor Yossi Vardi: "When an American tells you 'very interesting,' he really means '…but not to me'; when an Israeli says you are an idiot, he doesn't mean to insult you, he is merely trying to provide you with a constructive medical diagnosis!"

Fantasy football scores big in the US

It's autumn in the US, a time when young men's hearts turn to... Fantasy Football?

In preparation for the start of the NFL season on September 10, the Fantasy Sports Trade Association (www.fsta.org) is anticipating an estimated 20 million fantasy football players and $1.5 billion in revenue. Most of that comes from brands eager to reach 18-49 year old males.

The largest of these sites is Yahoo (http://fantasysports.yahoo.com/ffl), with 4 million active fantasy football players. Ben Strong, Senior Director of Yahoo Sports, notes that in addition to the returning sponsors of Toyota and Sprint, Yahoo added two additional title sponsors this year. Rich Calacci, senior vice president of sales at CBSSports.com was "able to grow our revenue year over year. Our clients have grown up playing this and are now in senior management."

In an advertising environment with few bright spots, brands and agencies are proactively embracing this segment. Best Buy has launched its own "casual" fantasy football promotion. Instead of a competition spanning the five month season, players can select a new team every week and compete against celebrities to win prizes.

If anything, the recession has helped bring new fans. Paul Charchian, president of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association, calls fantasy sports "extremely cost-effective entertainment. Men will find other things to scrimp on first."

Lack of transparency hurts Israeli businesses

Recently, an NYSE-listed American conglomerate contacted me about investing in an Israeli media company. Despite being traded on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, my colleagues and I could find no readily accessible financial reports, disclosures or analyst coverage. Moreover, a request to the Investor Relations (IR) department was fielded by an Account Executive at their PR firm. That doesn't exactly inspire confidence in private equity or institutional investors, does it? Israeli companies seeking access to direct, portfolio or private equity investment need to recognize the importance of transparency and build a world-class Investor Relations department.

Research conducted by The Milken Institute's 2008 "Opacity Index" gives Israel poor marks across nearly every transparency category. This includes disclosure standards, regulatory quality and enforcement policies. Higher levels of opacity translate into reduced inbound investment and less capital available for businesses and entrepreneurs. In fact, higher opacity levels are directly correlated with lower GDP growth and a reduced ability to attract foreign direct investment.

Marketers get 'Married on MySpace'

MySpace could use some good news. First, a leaked memo confirmed that Google has no intention of renewing its disastrous $300 million annual search and advertising deal. Then Comscore announced that since May (in addition to MySpace's declining traffic and time spent per user), Facebook has surpassed its rival in the US. In an environment where parent company Newscorp suffered $5.4 billion in fiscal year losses, the inevitable layoffs ensued. Nearly one third of MySpace staff were let go in June. 

However, adversity breeds innovation. At a time when audiences could really use a sappy love story, the wedding-themed web series "Married on MySpace" brought 13 million video views and seamlessly integrated brands like Disney, JC Penney and Unilever.

From Seder to Superheroes – Aniboom on a Roll

No one can forget their first love. Uri Shinar, founder of virtual animation studio Aniboom, began his career in animation.

Twenty-nine years ago, I created my first animation - the Hagada in clay-mation. We sold it to eight countries. Then I went to Cannes for the MIP TV Festival. It was during Passover and they arranged a seder with two hundred people. So I said, let me bring the books and show the animation on the screen... after that evening, our show sold to 40 countries."

Now Uri is providing a similar venue for independent animators, but without the surly French waiters or tasteless matzah.

Israeli military technology can save your marriage

Yosi Glick wants to save your marriage. Using technology developed by the Israeli military, his company Jinni solves the quintessential couple's conundrum- picking a movie that both husband and wife can enjoy.

"When my wife asks me to rent a movie, I get nervous. I have no idea what she will think is good or her mood that day." So Yosi developed a semantic search tool that lets users search like they think. It creates your "entertainment personality," based on 50 different categories (including mood, time available, plot summary, reviews, etc). This can be matched with the entertainment personality of your spouse so that the only thing left to fight about is who makes the popcorn.

Pot-smoking, lesbian dolls conquer Hollywood

While no one in Hollywood would ever admit to reading the Bible, most in the TV industry are likely to wholeheartedly agree with Ecclesiastes 1:9, "what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun." Decades before American Idol, Law & Order or The Hills dominated the airwaves, TV was awash in talent shows, procedurals and catfights.

To find a really fresh format, DigiTALE Productions and Disney have reached back to a format that predates even television - playing with dolls. Disney and DigiTALE Productions would like you to say "Bobdammit" to a new episodic web series, THE STONES. Think Barbie meets American Pie. 

About this blog

Unleavened Media Levi Shapiro advises digital media companies from Hollywood to Herzilya Pituach. From his base in Los Angeles, he works closely with "unleavened" (emerging) companies in technology, media and telecom as a strategy consultant.

Mr. Shapiro has launched new business units (IBM), new services (Toyota) and entirely new companies (Two Minute Television, Snack Mobile, TMT). When not roller-blading on Venice Beach, he is an Adjunct Professor at UCLA and frequent speaker at industry events. He welcomes your comments at levi@tmtstrat.com.

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Recent Comments

Dr. Shmuel Einav: Again an interesting article. We have near my lab here a "cave" where 3D immersed images are displayed (with goggles). My experience is that one gets tired very quickly of watching such an image. Is this a consideration in the industry?
Ari, NY: My experience with US Angel groups is by far better than the Israeli groups. The US groups are more professional, seek experts opinion (while the Israeli groups seek friends opinion) and understand the market much better. I offered to some of them my expertise and knowledge of the NY market, but it did not seem to move them.
Efrat, Tel Aviv: Great work Levi, as usual. Interesting to see the different point of views from different figures.