The Weekly Portion: Two grave scenarios unfolding

Last week's most pressing event was undoubtedly President Bush's visit to Israel and the Palestinian Authority. And not only because of the frustrating traffic congestion that gripped Jerusalem, the ceremonies, the dinners and the provincial bickering about who was invited and who was not.

This visit was vital for us Israelis in that the leader of the most powerful country in the world came and reminded us and the Palestinians of the importance and urgency of reaching a mutual agreement. Based on the cynical and mocking media reactions, one could have thought the conflict was Bush's problem and not ours. Alternatively, one could see Bush and Condoleeza Rice as a bothersome couple that pushes us to deal with an issue that perhaps holds no importance, for anyone.

In 2007, not even a single suicide bombing attack was carried out inside Israel. This success is attributed to the great efforts of the IDF and the Shin Bet (Israel's security agency). However, this blessed quiet hides the catastrophic processes taking place and creates an impression of complacence to the public. Presently, "only" thirty thousands residents of the Gaza periphery and Sderot are essentially paying the price of the conflict. Their lives are not actual lives but the rest of Israel's population - 7 million people - do not sense so.

Due to the lack of an agreement to our continued occupation of the West Bank, to the increasing authority of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, two grave scenarios are unfolding:

One - The failure of the attempts to bring about a solution of two states for two people only reinforces the notion of the one-state solution. In a bi-national state between Jordan and the Mediterranean, there is currently a population of 54% Jews and 46% Arabs. Should the Palestinians despair and give up hope of achieving their own state, they will start to ask for equal rights in a shared state. Calls for this solution are multiplying greatly. It would be an end to the Zionist dream and a recipe for a country modeled after Lebanon, where mutual killings do not cease, and when they do, it is only for short periods.

Two - Should the current Palestinian Authority leadership fail to bring about an independent state while conducting negotiations and ongoing dialogue with Israel, the influence of Hamas and other extremists in the West Bank will only grow. In a process that should only last a few years, Hamas will come to control all territory under the PA's control and will continue its terror and Kassam firing policy from there. The current reality in Sderot will grow to encompass Afula, Kfar Saba and Petah-Tikva. The severe difficulty in dealing with the rockets militarily is already apparent to us today.

The "nuisance" from Washington wishes to save us from these two terrible scenarios. At the end of the day, the US can assist, understand but it cannot replace either one of the sides at the negotiating table. Only political will can be the conduit to an agreement. Only political will can strengthen the implementation of an achieved agreement.

Both sides lack a "strong leader", but whoever leads the negotiations with decisiveness and a strong will, while ignoring the professional skeptics and the cynical commentators, shall at the end of the process, only stand to benefit politically. The next few weeks will be the actual test.