The Weekly Portion: Gaza op inevitable

Last week's barrage of Kassam and mortar fire from Gaza into the surrounding communities has set a new record for the residents living there. This collective suffering has reached a point of no return.

Israel's leadership must provide an answer to its citizens who are living under Hamas rocket fire, a definite answer. In the absence of such an answer from the government, I would like to state the truth as I see it.

Why is the government not preparing a major operation intended to break Hamas's strength and hold on the Gaza Strip? Such an operation is inevitable, because Israel cannot and will not resign itself to the existence of an Iranian terror base on its borders forever.

The reason we are not embarking on such an operation is due to the fact that the government has no clue how to end it. A lesson of the Second Lebanon War is that launching a war without an exit plan is not recommended.

A major operation in Gaza would have the following painful consequences:

1) There could be a high number of casualties, higher even than all the victims of the Kassams combined.

2) The duration of the operation itself and the presence in Gaza thereafter can be lengthy. It can take months, with the enlistment of a high number of reservists. That is, if there is no pre-determined 'exit strategy'.

3) During the IDF's presence in the Strip, it will have to care for the needs of over 1.5 million people with all the financial and administrative burdens it may entail.

4) Without a change of the political and economic reality in Gaza, it will become clear that a military operation alone cannot prevent terror in the Strip and from it.

The combination of these difficulties would create a problematic reality, one that can consist of many casualties and a ruined economy. Many of those who advocate for a major operation in Gaza will be the same ones who will ask, "until when will we be killed in Gaza" and who will preach for a hasty retreat.

This can be a real consequence of invading Gaza without an end and exit strategy.

Why is there no such plan? Because there is no one right now to whom we can hand the keys to once the IDF completes its operations there. Israel will not repeat the mistake of unilateral disengagement without knowing who will take the reigns once it leaves.

There is no international third party that will volunteer to replace the IDF in Gaza. The experiences of Afghanistan and Iraq have left a bad taste in the mouths of countries that would have sent their soldiers and citizens for peacekeeping purposes. Only a government or a secular Palestinian authority can manage Gaza once Hamas falls. In order for this to happen, there needs to be an agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Without an agreement that would include a plan for a future Palestinian state, no on will take responsibility for Gaza.

The conditions for the agreement are well known. They were shaped in 2000 in the Camp David and Tabah talks. Both sides would have a price to pay: the right of return for all Palestinians and the dream of an undivided Jerusalem under Israeli control only.

The lack of courage to state the truth prevents such an agreement from materializing and in its absence, the harm that could come out of an operation in Gaza would be greater than the benefits. Therefore, there is hesitation to undertake an operation and that is why the government recently decided to give the Egyptian-mediated efforts for a ceasefire "a chance". If there is a ceasefire and the time is not used to reach an agreement with the Palestinian Authority, only Hamas would stand to gain. Hamas will prepare meticulously for an inevitable confrontation with Israel and we will have to pay a heavy price.

What should be the list of actions Israel must make or ensure for its sake and the sake of its citizens?

1.  It must reach a framework agreement with the Palestinian Authority
2.  It must deal a deadly blow to Hamas to break its power and hold on the Gaza Strip
3. The Palestinian Authority must return to Gaza as the known and legitimate government.
4. A "Marshal Plan" for the development of the Palestinian economy must be taken further. It must be based on private sector initiatives, international and local.
5. A referendum in Israel in which the people will decide whether to implement the agreement or maintain the status quo.

This is what needs to be done.