Rosner's Domain: Why Jews support attack on Iran? because they trust Obama

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J.J Goldberg wrote an interesting analysis on AJC's survey of Jewish public opinion (on which I wrote here and here).The problem one might see with it: Goldberg accuses AJC for conducting "a public relations exercise", and not a serious poll. But his tone sometimes suggests that his frustration with AJC has more to do with the outcome of this survey that with the professionalism of it. In other words: Goldberg's attack is also some kind of public relations exercise aimed at proving that American Jews are more in agreement with his own views than this poll might suggest. 

And he is wrong when he writes that "a plurality of American Jews agreed with Israel's pragmatic middle, which favors Palestinian statehood not as a guarantee of peace with the neighbors but as a way to separate from them". Yes, American Jews probably want a two state solution, but as far as Israel's "pragmatic middle" goes, things are much more complicated and Goldberg's assertion looks more like wishful thinking than like a valid description of Israel's public opinion.

True, according to some polls Israelis do support a TSS. However, according to other polls they don't. It all depends on the way one asks the question (you can see good example for such differences in wording in the polls done by the Harry Truman Institute for the Advancement of Peace). And since Israelis have a more nuanced knowledge of possible agreements, they tend to answer according to their view of the specifics offered by the poll. Asking them about non-specific "two state solution" really makes no sense unless the question offers some kind of explanation: is this a demilitarized state? what happens in Jerusalem? with Gaza? with refugees? with settlement blocks? Tell me how the agreement will look like - and I'll tell you what Israelis think. Believe me - it is not the two state solution Palestinians have in mind. And judging but the outcome of the most important poll - recent Israeli election - one wonders where exactly this "pragmatic middle" is hiding.

Anyway - my idea was to compliment Goldberg for some very good points he was making in his analysis, and I ended up criticizing him. So let me say it again: he wrote an interesting piece, that I highly recommend. Here is one of the more intriguing arguments he's making:

So what did the 2009 survey find? Its headline finding - Harris called it the "biggest change" from past surveys - involves views toward hypothetical American military action against Iranian nuclear sites. A hefty 56% of respondents would back an American strike; 36% disagreed (the rest were unsure). In last year's survey, Harris noted, Jews opposed such American military action, 47% to 42%. Back in 2006, the last time the question was asked, opposition was even stronger: 54% against, 38% in favor. Presumably, Jews have now woken up to the Iranian threat.

Curiously, support for Israeli military action hasn't changed at all. This year found 66% favoring an Israeli strike and 28% opposed. In 2006, despite strong opposition to American action, respondents favored Israeli action by 57% to 35%. American Jews, it turns out, have consistently supported military action. What's changed is that they now support American military action.

The difference, in other words, is not how Jews view Iran but how they view Washington. Last year we had a commander-in-chief who couldn't be trusted playing with guns. Now there's a grown-up in charge, which changes the equation.

Am I stretching things? Not at all. The surveys are crystal clear. In 2006, respondents were asked if they "approve or disapprove of the way the United States government is handling the situation with Iran's nuclear weapons program." Only 33% approved; 54% disapproved. In 2009, asked about "the Obama administration's handling" of it, 49% approved and 35% disapproved. Support for American military action, then, follows trust in the president. Blind partisanship? More likely, Jews were deterred by the previous administration's incompetence.

And I will add to Goldberg's analysis one layer: it can also help explain the recent Pew poll, showing that not just Jewish Americans but rather Americans in general are now more supportive of an attack on Iran.