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Monday Dec 22, 2008
Rosner's Domain: Rosner's election poll trendPosted by SHMUEL ROSNER
Comments: 162     
1 | Ger, Raanana, Monday Dec 22, 2008
Once again, the stupid Proportional Representation system, which New York City got rid of over 70 years ago as unworkable, will bring about an ugly coalition, regardless of whether the Right or the Left wins.
We will have more of the same stagnation as we currently have, with little or no reaction to the ongoing rocket fire in the South, along with continued buildup of arms by Hamas and Hizbullah.
2 | Chaim - Israel, Monday Dec 22, 2008
FELLOW JEWS: PLEASE DON'T VOTE FOR KADIMA! If you're Jewish and you're planning to vote Kadima, what are you thinking? VIrtually everything Kadima does is a total disaster for Israel. It releases terrorists by the hundreds who soon maim and murder more of us. It does virtually nothing as terrorist rockets pound our cities. Livni personally (and proudly) negotiated the disastrous cease-fire with Hizbullah that cost in victory in Lebanon. Livni pledges much of our tiny land to our enemies in secret talks (likely treason under our Basic Law). Don't let Kadima destroy Israel, I beg of you!
3 | Seymour, Berkeley, Tuesday Dec 23, 2008
It is unfortunate the Arab vote is not broken down as to the various parties including such non-Arab parties as Labor, Kadima, etc. Support of the non-Arab parties might be an index of a desire to integrate into Israeli society. By the way, what happens if I answer the math question incorrectly?
4 | Avraham - Yerushalayim, Tuesday Dec 23, 2008
I'd have to disagree a bit with your "trendlines". Statistically, you should throw out the Dec. 10th polls, as they are irrelevant on Dec. 23rd, given that there are three recent polls.
It looks, therefore, as if the "trend" is Likud - 30, Kadima - 28. All in all, a pretty tight race.
5 | Terry - Eilat, Israel, Tuesday Dec 23, 2008
It's still possible to have a right-wing coalition, one without Kadima & Labour. That's the only hope for a real change in direction. But, because of our bizarre & dysfunctional system of proportional representation, we are likely to get stuck with the same paralysed gov't. as we have now.
Our elections are basically meaningless - the same collection of useless parasites show up in every gov't. We seemingly can't get rid of all the failed old faces; they're like a loathsome skin disease.
6 | Kadima, Tuesday Dec 23, 2008
Go Kadima! Chaim, move back to Iran with your theocratic buddies!
7 | Dudu, Tuesday Dec 23, 2008
Terry, what can the right promise except exactly the same status quo we have now? The Palestinians might not be a real partner but we can not simply wait while a bi-national state overtakes us. The right has an exhuasted ideology and no real solution. As the great man BG said - Either a jewish state without all the land, or all the land without a Jewish state!
8 | Israel, Wednesday Dec 24, 2008
Dudu - We will have a Jewish State with all of Our Holy Land. The quickest and easiest way to do this is to implement the Israel Initiative http://www.israelinitiative.com/
9 | Dudu -Very Close, Wednesday Dec 24, 2008
Ha,ha and you just expect the Palestinians to agree to this, huh? We wouldn't settle for less than self-determination so why should they? Israel you, and the others keep all the land types, are bringing about the bi-national state of the post-zionists! There is no difference between Ilan Pappe and Moshe Feiglin.
10 | debra, Thursday Dec 25, 2008
i agree voting for kadima is giving all the land away. voting for likud means security.(livni is just another olmert.)
11 | David- Israel, Thursday Dec 25, 2008
On 19/12 there was a tie between Likud and Kadima at 30 apiece. On 24 and 25/12 Likud led by 6 and 4 respectively, never gong below 30. How can you say that the trend shows Likud going down. You are obviously no expert in reading polls
12 | David- Israel, Thursday Dec 25, 2008
On 19/12 there was a tie between Likud and Kadima at 30 apiece. On 24 and 25/12 Likud led by 6 and 4 respectively, never gong below 30. How can you say that the trend shows Likud going down. You are obviously no expert in reading polls
13 | Chaim - Israel, Thursday Dec 25, 2008
#6 Kadima.You offer absolutely no rational defense of Kadima. The reason is obvious. There IS no rational defense for Kadima. How can one defend their freeing and arming hundreds of murderous terrorists against us? How can one rationally defend Livni's insane cease-fire with Hizbullah, which cost us victory in Lebanon? How can one rationally defend Livni's almost certain treason (under our Basic Law) by pleding much of our tiny land to our enemies? How can one defend Kadima doing virtually nothing as thousands of terrorist rockets pound our cities? Kadima doesn't deserve a single Jewish vote.
14 | Chaim - Israel, Thursday Dec 25, 2008
#7 Dudu, your leftist propaganda that ceding our land protects Israel as a Jewish state has long been disproven. Recent studies prove that our Judea and Samaria Jewish communities are growing at THREE times the rate of the rest of Israel. The real demographic problem lies WITHIN the so-called green line. Not in Judea and Samaria. No one can dispute the clear fact that EVERY single Israeli retreat has been a total disaster. Our insane retreat from South Lebanon brought us the last Lebanon War. Our Insane Gaza retreat brought thousands of rockets. We must end retreat. Period.
15 | David NYC, Friday Dec 26, 2008
Do the math, kids. Likud, Kadima, Labor make a 69-seat government. Toss a few pieces of pork at Shas and that makes a solid 80. The right (what's left of it) is shut out again and the "centrists" get a pretty new/old face to march the country in the same direction -- toward oblivion.
16 | Jon, Chapel Hill, Friday Dec 26, 2008
hey David, ya sure the rabbis over at Shas really want pork thrown at them?
17 | Dudu, still very close, Friday Dec 26, 2008
Yes Chaim you are right, onward Jewish Soldiers! Israel is the most powerful country in the world! We will simply crush Hamas, crush Hizbollah, crush the PA. The IDF can control everything! Opps, oh yeah we tried that in 1982!
Let's say we could take out every member of Hamas, Hizbollah Islamic Jihad etc, what's next? What do we do with the several million Palestinians left? Please don't tell me give them Jordanian citizenship, as I will have to ask what you been smoking on the hilltop. Chaim wake up and smell the binational state. Hopefully you will become a real Zionist, like Livni!
18 | Martin - USA, Friday Dec 26, 2008
IsraelNN.com) A poll, released by the Geocartographia Institute on Thursday shows the Likud party opening a 13 Knesset-seat lead on Kadima. The survey gives the Likud 35-36 mandates, as compared to 23 for Kadima. Polls taken immediately after last week's Kadima primary had shown the two parties even.
According to the poll, Yisrael Beiteinu would pick up 11 seats. The newly-announced Meretz list would be good for 10 mandates. Shas and Labor would have nine seats each and the predominantly Arab parties would account for ten mandates. The Green Party stands to pass the threshold.
19 | Sam Sydney, Australia, Saturday Dec 27, 2008
No 17. yes deport all the arabs from the west bank & gaza to Jordan, with compersation. Give the King of Jordan a guarantee of army protection if there should ever be an uprising in that country(It happened before) Atleast the arabs being deported would get some finanical assistance in moving, more than all the arab states gave the jews that they forced out of their countries in the 1940's & 50's.Only a right wing government can do this. also the right wing should change the voting system as soon as they come to power, that would bring about stronger governments in the future, less parties.
20 | Sam F America, Sunday Dec 28, 2008
As an American Jew who wholly supports Israel (and Jewish people) I would never impose myself in your election. However, whomever gets elected has to understand that Israel is dealing with people who hates their guts and existance. Negociate all you want..nothing will come of it. Hamas and its ilk are like crocodiles..can you tame a crocodile? And beware of your own Israeli Arabs..they "protest" this recent attack on Gaza... that should tell you something! This Gaza re-attack (Hamas started it with the Kassams) will perhaps start a new dialogue. At all costs defend your land and people!
21 | , Monday Dec 29, 2008
22 | Jonathan, UK, Thursday Jan 01, 2009
I enjoy the blog, but surely the presentation of the data could be improved? The table is hard to read because of the slider and the use of only one colour. Other sites (dare I say the BBC) offer a more user friendly experience. Keep up the good work though
23 | David C.S: Hughes, Sweden, Friday Jan 02, 2009
We are living in a new century but still living in the mentality of the 2nd half of the last one. Faced with the horrific racist and religious nationalism of the first half of the 20th Century (right wing madness) the human race being the reactionary beasts they were went to an opposite PC left wing nut job tolerance that has allowed us to accept our innevitabilital destruction because we will not do that which is NECESSARY to give us a chance to survive. Israel has 2 basic choices; take the land of Israel as our own create the State for Jews only (tolerance in this) and kick out the others.
24 | Mike - in the part of the U.S. where we're not leftist twits, Friday Jan 02, 2009
In re: David C.S: Hughes, Sweden, Friday Jan 02, 2009
WHAT??? "racist and religious nationalism of the first half of the 20th Century (right wing madness)
You have no idea that the racist nationalism of the first half of the 20th century came from the LEFT!!!!!
NAZI stands for National Socialst. Marx was their grandfather.
Try to make statements about history that are accurate, for crying out loud.
I'm sick of libertarian/conservative/right being used as the scapegoat for Socialist and Marxist revisionism of what really happened.
Get your facts straight for a change.
25 | Yocheved, Michigan, Friday Jan 02, 2009
A well funded regionally supported plan for emptying the refugee camps and resettling the inhabitants in alternative locations in other countries is needed. Those Arabs who wish to be loyal citizens of the Jewish state can do so. Israel is not Israel without Jewish Judea and Samaria - it simply will not work. Regarding the tables - instead of comparing results from completely different polls, why not make an aggregated figure like the real clear politics average so that you can actually compare apples and apples. Shabbat Shalom everyone.
26 | Brooke, Philadelphia, Friday Jan 02, 2009
This poll proves what I've been telling people about Barak's popularity. I am not an Israeli but an American Labor/Barak supporter so it definitely lifts my spirts, despite the sad circumstances around it. I guess conventional wisdom would suggest that this operation would benefit Likud but thing is, Barak is the one in charge of this op and he's in a great position right now, even if he's not doing it for political purposes. We'll see what happens. I hope Israel is able to dismantle Hamas in a way that leaves them no choice but to negotiate and stop bombing towns like Ashkelon. GO BARAK!!!
27 | David J Feiger Oakland Park, Fl, Friday Jan 02, 2009
#24 Mike.Sorry Leftist Twit, but you have no idea what your talking about. It's embarrassing how uninformed and poorly educated so many Americans have become. National Socialism is based upon the works of Hegel not Marx. Hagel argued the supremacy of the state over the individual and created the concept of thesis, antithesis and synthesis. Marx argued for the supremacy of class over the individual and the state and the establishment through " The Communist Manifesto"he co authored with Engels a world wide worker's revolution creating a classless stateless egalitarian world order.
28 | Jon, Friday Jan 02, 2009
Climbing in the poles,is simply climbing the rungs which are dead Palestianian Children.
When will morality become a component of the Israeli mentality.
Venemous,vitriolic,insulting terminology was given birth in Israel and copied by others.
Israel cannot prove whatsoever that they are God`s chosen one`s,and also cannot prove it was God who said you should have a Holy Land.
Lets start being honest,it was the Jewish Scribes of the time who came up with an idea to ensure that Israel and the Jewish followers had some claim to fame and a future built on what " supposedly God told them" ????
29 | I, Ramat-Gan, Friday Jan 02, 2009
Funny you "forgot" to take JPOST poll(The Poll of your Newspaper!!!!!!) or Globes poll or Channel-2(Mishaal-Cham) poll. Maybe because they are not fitted to your political agenda Mr. Rosner ?
btw, Ma'ariv "poll" su*** . It's the only poll that Kadima has more or less as the Likud for the last 5 weeks. I am starting to suspect their integrity. I will remind to the readers that according to Ma'ariv "poll" or shall we say Ma'ariv-Political-Spin Livni should had defeated Mofaz by 22% margin
30 | Daniel Shavit, Switzerland, Saturday Jan 03, 2009
I do understand that Judea & Samaria as well as the Golan is of highest military strategic interest. I do understand that Israel should not give it back for a piece of paper which is worseless in case of conflict. But Jordan will not accept 1 mio of Palestinians sent out of westbank. Furthermore, if most of Palestinian would prefer to get Israel Citizzenship, the demografic change would be dangerous for Israel..
31 | Reuven Ben-Daniel. Israel, Saturday Jan 03, 2009
At Munich , Chamberlain and Daladier when faced with the demand of Hitler that the Gemans of Sudetenland could not live under the Czechs . The answer should have been 'let them immigrate to Germany'. This would probably have prevented WW2. But after the War,with the agreement of all the Allies, the Germans were expelled.Also at the same time the Germans were expelled from East Prussia, which was divided between Poland and Russia. Two trouble spots were solved at the same time Germans under the Czechs and dispute over the 'Polish corridor;.Since then no German demand for reversal of expulsion
32 | Reuven Ben-Daniel. Israel, Saturday Jan 03, 2009
After WW2 all Germans in Sudetenland were expelled with the full agreement of all the Allies, and the land returned to its rightful owner the Czech Republic. That sealed the problem of Germany claiming Sudetenland because of its German population. In East Prussia all Germans were expelled and East Prussia divided amongst Russia and Poland. That settled the pre war sore of the Polish Corridor through German Territory .Germany has never suggested that these lands should be returned to her sovereignty, and to my knowledge, no German groups demanding 'right of return.'.So it can be done .here.
33 | Reuven Ben-Daniel. Israel, Saturday Jan 03, 2009
Jon, Indeed you are also saying that Christianity which accepts the Jewish bible is also a fake, and that Islam which came afterwards is also based on lies.And that Mohamed is also a vicious liar.Why don't you advertise this in a Islam country, I am sure they will be amused.
34 | Physicist USA, Saturday Jan 03, 2009
#17 Dudu -- Jordanian citizenship and/or relocation of the Palestinians to Arab or European countries needs to be considered on its merits. Responding by "what have you been smoking" is a cheap ad-hominen non-response. The Palestinians are being perpetually exploited as a weapon to attack Israel by Jihadists and their Leftist sponsors. Most of them would accept a chance at a decent life elsewhere. This can't happen while they are being used to sponsor anti-Israeli jihad. Let them settle in other lands and rebuild their lives, and let the Jews live in peace in their ancentral homeland!
35 | Timmy, Canada, Sunday Jan 04, 2009
Unfortunatlely, we are going through a time in which hope of a regional (or even global) Islamic Caliphate fires the imaginations of Muslims everywhere. As a result, Islam is at war with all of its neighbouring cultures on the perimeter of the Islamic world: Sudan, India, Chechnia, China, Kosovo, Phillipines, etc.
36 | Not Bill clinton- Los angeles, Sunday Jan 04, 2009
Well Mike from germany we have known that for the past few years, we always read your vicious and nasty comments for jews and americans. And I too HATE YOUR GUTS. But I have faith you will get yours....
37 | ctg is home- Colombia, Sunday Jan 04, 2009
Mike from Germany you talk a big tough game, always threatening Jews and Americans, why not join hamas or al-queda, if you want to kill us?, or are you just a cowardly little euroclown poodle?
38 | Dominik von Muehlberg, Cologne, West Germany, Sunday Jan 04, 2009
i very sincerely hope that this shithead spreading his venom under # 35 "mike germany" is NOT german as it would constitute a severe offence to the whole german nation. this is definitely a hoax, i refuse to believe that anyone in this country could sputter such imbecilities! we do understand the situation israel is in and we support fully your just fight against terrorism. those of you who speak the relevant languages and have the chance to monitor blogs in germany, austria and the czech republic will know. we pray for all brave IDF boys and PLEASE don´t stop too early! GO ISRAEL GO! -V-
39 | Shel Zahav, Sunday Jan 04, 2009
Polls in Israel are meaningless. They ask 500 people about their preferences and then try to extrapolate that to cover several million voters. All the pollsters do this and, despite their protests to the contrary, the results often indicate that the polls are way off and meaningless.
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