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Wednesday Jan 21, 2009
Rosner's Domain: The Israel Factor on the will-Obama-and-Bibi-get-along questionPosted by SHMUEL ROSNER
Comments: 53      Updated Jan. 22!!! Election 2009: Rosner's Poll Trend Will barack Obama get along well with the new Israeli government? That's one of the questions the Israel Factor panel was asked to address. For those still unfamiliar with The Israel Factor project here's a short description: it is a group of eight Israeli experts that has been ranking and rating American candidates and policies vis-à-vis Middle East affairs for the last two and a half years. The Israel Factor was quoted extensively in numerous publications around the world. And according to news reports it even helped Obama decide that he needs to be more vocal on Israel-related issues. For more information about this project click here. Earlier this week, I posted the panel's assessment of Obama's policies on Iran (click here) and the Palestinians (click here). They predicted some pressure on the illegal outposts, a prediction that becomes even more viable after the appointment of George Mitchell to Middle East special envoy (Mitchell wanted Israel to freeze all settlement activities years ago). But today I will post the more political prediction of the panel. I asked if Obama will get along well with Binyamin Netanyahu (a question I've dealt with in the past, so you can see what I think here) - the more likely future Prime Minister according to polls. I also asked if Obama can get along well with the less likely candidate to win, Kadima leader Tzipi Livni. The panel was asked to rate the following scenarios from 1 (very unlikely to happen) to 5 (very likely to happen). The table below reflects the way the eight panelists have voted (the average of all votes), but also gives an indication if the vote was unanimous or nearly-unanimous (U) - if there was broad agreement with one or two dissenters (A) - or if the panel was split (S). Of course, the outcome does not necessarily reflect Israels public opinion and its attitude toward Obama - but rather an Israeli expert opinion on the new administration. Here's the panel's prediction followed by some comments. The question: Will Obama...
1. As one can easily see, the panel is generally optimistic about the chances that Obama and the new Israeli government will get along quite well. Naturally, its more optimistic about Livni - center-left governments have always managed to do better with American administrations but it also has a fairly optimistic view of future Netanyahu-Obama dialogue. 2. The main difference between the assessments of the two is this: all members of the panel believe that Obama and Livni will be fine. But only the average of the panel's assessment on Netanyahu is (almost) as hopeful. What we really got on this issue is a split panel: third believe that Netanyahu means trouble with the US, third think it will be OK, but not sure. And only a third are certain about Netanyahu's ability to communicate well with the new administration. 3. This is one tool that Livni will be using in the short campaign ahead: Many Israelis were watching Obama's inauguration with owe and even excitement. To those Israelis Livni will have a message: Obama means new era. It's no longer the free-ride of Bush's days. You need me as your Prime Minister if you want Israel to be able to ride this Obama-wave. 4. So, can they get along? I think at this stage the answer of most people is political. Those opposing Netanyahu will say no by way of (partly) justifying their opposition. Those supporting him, or at least untroubled by the prospect of yet another Netanyahu government, will say "why not, yes they can".
1 | Tom, US, Wednesday Jan 21, 2009
Obama isn't the fool that Bush was. It will be interesting to watch as the arrogance of the self chosen gets crammed down their throats.
2 | Mike Carroll, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
The only one Israel has to get along with God. If Israel is right with God all our troubles will be taken care of by him. I know Israel worries to much about what the US thinks about them. You are you own people and have the right to be an individual and do what you need to do for your country. There are blessings and curses and you know what you need to do for both. Choose this day whom you will serve...and the US is not your best option.
3 | Mark Cooper, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
It doesn't matter who the Israelis elect. At the end of the day, they can, through AIPAC hamstring our government to do their bidding. Your chokehold on our country is being to lessen. There is a quiet but growing backlash. Stay tuned
4 | davies fatunmishe vancouver bc canada, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
with obama or no obama , Israel will be okay by the divine grace of God .
5 | Michael Ireland, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
It is about time the" God", "the chosen people", "the good book" etc stuff was given a rest - Every body believes these labels. None of it is true - How can anyone kill, maim, starve, humiliate, etc people and believe they are "the chosen people" or that God is on their side. Except the deluded..
6 | Avraham - Yerushalayim, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
I disagree completely. I think Obama would "get along" much better with Bibi than with Livni. It's not about policy differences. Obama and Bibi are both very intelligent. Bibi's English is much better than Livni's, and Bibi has a more similar academic background.
People "get along" because of personalities, not because of minor fluctuations in policy positions.
It's like the old adage in boxing - "styles make fights". Applies in politics, too.
7 | John - Tampa, FL - US, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
All that is good and of Jehovah God stands behind you Israel. All that oppose you will feel the wrath of God and this includes the US. Millions of Christians in the US stand behind you aggressively and support fervently your right to defend yourself against this hatred. The ignorant and uneducated in the US continue to climb in numbers and wears at our political alliance. However you will always be God's chosen peope and we (Christians) will always stand behind you. The World will witness God's greatness and see the Word is the truth. The prophecies are being fulfilled.
8 | Latch, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
Israel will prevail....God said so. The opposing countries wishing to conquer Israel will fall short in the Valley of Megiddo. Sad thing is this event won't happen soon enough. Latest news.....Obama's first call of business was to ABBAS, a known palistienian terrorist and enemy to srael.....hmmmmm! go figure. Obama may not support Israel but, I do and so do a huge number of Americans.
9 | Steven Mann , USA, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
Michael, you are way off base when you say none of it is true. Believe and trust in God and he will come near to you. Continue to mock him, and your life will be a struggle you can not overcome, because the devil ties up heavy burdens on people's shoulders, and God will take the burden from you through faith. God has a plan for Israel and Jerusalem, and the plan will not be reversed. He planned that salvation should come to the gentiles first, and it has. And he has a plan that salvation will shine from Jerusalem, and it will.
10 | Iyke-Nigeria, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
Tom, may God save you from your anti-semitism.
11 | Sonny, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
Comment on #5
It is obvious that you have no understanding of the bible so I will not argue that point. But knowing how the Islamic propaganda machine works I will state that the international press is bias, Ill even say down right anti-Israeli, especially in the UK and Europe. But those of us who know the bible know that Israel will stand alone in the end, none of this is much of a surprise. What is a surprise is what is being accepted as truth!
12 | Yacov Yosifovitch,nyc, On: Earth needs more Lady Leaders, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
The Ancients need to wake-up! Today, in All Muslom Country's, Israel too etc, there are those [Men?]who believe in the saying, "Thank G-d [IT], not a HE nor a SHE] did not make me a woman.." Similar. ! Please knoweth that when this blesseth planet, a.k.a. "Holi-Space-Ship-Earth" hath a majority of WOMAN-LEADER to Lead us MEN; Then genuine PEACE, in a Prophetic way, will TRULY (opposite of MYTH) will finally be realized globally. AND that "ALL" Pre-Apocalyptic "THEOCRACY's" (Ayatola, Saudi Kings etc..) & "MONARCHY's" (English, Saudi, Hashmites Kingdoms etc..) must be Abolished or removed
13 | Silvestre Santana, Dominican Republic, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
Jerusalem must not be divided and Israel is not going to get peace giving land. If Bibi keeps this in mind and do not submit to UN or any other international pressure, Israel will has problems with Barak Hussein Obama. Remember, Obama says he is christian but he really is a "nominal christian" which means he is not saved. In Biblical matters Obama doesn't know where he is standing. The future of Israel is in what the Almighty G-D says in His Holy Scriptures and neither Obama or UN will be in disposition to obey G-D. Ezekiel 38 and 39 and Zachariah 12, 13 and 14 tell us about the end.
14 | Ryan, USA, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
HAHAHAHAHA....12 is awesome....so anyway....always been a big fan of Israel....i really hope our countries get along....Can't say I'm a big fan of his domestic policies but Obama is our leader so I wish him the best.
ps Israel, screw politics and kick hamas' butt !
15 | Daniel-Atlanta, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
Obama has bigger things to worry about than Israel, such as America. The real question is: Who will get alnong best with Hillary Clinton, the new Secretary of State? Obama will meet with Israel's new leaders, but the real work will be carried out at lower levels. An Israeli PM is about equivalent to a US Secretary of State in importance, and that relationship is where attention should directed as far as negotiations go. If Obama has to get involved in negotiations in a serious way, it will probably be simply to tell the Israeli PM how it's going to be, and that will be that.
16 | Duncan Lennox, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
Zionism plus fundamental Judiasm is a vile combination. Zionism started out as a secular movement and if it had not been subverted by the religious fanatics might have avoided the" Might IS Right = Ethnic Cleansing IS Good" approach to settling in Palestine. Zionist leaders starting with B.Gurion have proudly admitted that they have NEVER negotiated in good faith re Palestine but remained committed to a Jewish-only homeland via the ethnic cleansing of the indigenous population. Cease fires have been used as opportunities to reload & occupy more of Palestine. Bibi is a 1st rank Zionist.
17 | Laurence D.C., Thursday Jan 22, 2009
Hmmm #1, #3, & #5 some Jpost readers are reading the wrong paper. I think you three should spend your time reading Al Arabiya, or Al Hayat, where the just, the honest, the objective, and the oppressed Arab world trash the evil Zionists and manipulators of world markets.
18 | Tom, US, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
10 | Iyke-Nigeria - May God save the Khazar jews from THEIR antisemitism.
19 | michael, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
Steven-God and I are a personal thing. As a Catholic, I cannot carry God, the chosen people, the bible into the political/social arena and start telling other people that I am right and their beliefs are wrong. All life is a struggle for all people - some more than others. If God has a plan for Israel and Jerusalem, he must have a plan for the Russians and Moscow, the Canadians and Toronto, the Saudis and Riyadh etc etc. Nobody is mocking God - I am mocking the abuse of God as was done for the last 8 years in the US via the neocon Christian right who brought their God but not their humanity.
20 | Manny, Chicago, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
"Getting along" is irrelevant. Countries have interests. The interests of the US and Israel may sometimes differ. We need a leader that can protect Israel's interests, not one that can "get along". I trust the 3-B (Bibi, Bugi and Begin).
21 | Colin Wright, Richmond, California, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
I think Israel and the United States are headed for a collision; and I think Israel will lose. Strong US supporters of Israel fall into two groups; one of them was alienated by Gaza, and the other didn't vote for Obama in the first place.
22 | moshe kaplan, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
All those palestinians want to go to their heaven????? let's help them a.s.a.p------no other solution available
23 | Yakov Yosifovitch, On:ReReading Constitutions of Hamas et al, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
#14 (RYAN) Thank YE! Please note: That as a believer [Sabra] of the "Holi-Cosmic-Feelers-Faith" , where OUR Prophets likes hir Albert Einstein (refused to be a President of Israel) , Buckminster Fuller, Edgar Cacey, Gallalio, Corpernicus et al that hath given Us "Space-Forth Thinking" [Apocalyptic; not Pre-Apocalyptic thinking] and "Future-Bound" Prophecy's; That i was thrown-Off Washington-Post's "onfaith" blogg because they (Jealous, but religious Moderators) like Rick Warren ., could'nt handle "OUR (One-Universal-Religion) NEW-SONG" comming from alll thier OLD-SONGS for a New world-Order.
24 | JUDE LAYTON UTAH, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
We can make our plans, but the final outcome is in God's hands. Proverbs 16:1. God's words are plain and clear to anyone with half a mind--only if is is open.
25 | Randy, Pensacola Florida, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
I think that "John" from "Tampa" has said it all. I believe in the Bible and the Jewish people are God's chosen people, and for this reason I support the Jewish people. If America does not help Israel and defend the Jewish people and there land, the wrath of God will be upon us. I stand with pastor John Hagee and through him I send my support to the Jewish people. Please everyone, it does not take much effort to do as our Lord and Savior instructed us, "Love each other as God has loved us" for he gave his only Son that we may have life and have it in more abudance.
26 | USA, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
Israel, take care of yourself. Don't pander to the US president or even to the US Jews. Do what will keep Israel and her citizens safe....international pressure is there regardless of what Israel does. World Anti-Semitism continues regardless of anything. Israel must stay strong and whatever her citizens do it must be on behalf of keeping Israel a safe and strong Jewish state. Nothing should be based on Obama. May Israel be blessed, especially her soldiers.
27 | Ramon Garcia, Carolina, Puerto Rico, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
When we begin the argument over, is Israel God's chosen , we can argue in favor and against just by using the Old Testament. We must not forget the lessons of history. The Nazis made their mark on the so call, "final solution", syndrom. This is the same mind set of the Muslims terror groups. It has nothing to do with land. It has to do with wiping a people out just because of whom they are. The persecution will not end with given up the land and moving. Obama is not the important factor, but the right of survival of a people that have every right to live and enjoy the gift of that pursuit.
28 | Ramon Garcia, Carolina, Puerto Rico, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
When we begin the argument over, is Israel God's chosen , we can argue in favor and against just by using the Old Testament. We must not forget the lessons of history. The Nazis made their mark on the so call, "final solution", syndrom. This is the same mind set of the Muslims terror groups. It has nothing to do with land. It has to do with wiping a people out just because of whom they are. The persecution will not end with given up the land and moving. Obama is not the important factor, but the right of survival of a people that have every right to live and enjoy the gift of that pursuit.
29 | Ramon Garcia, Carolina, Puerto Rico, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
When we begin the argument over, is Israel God's chosen , we can argue in favor and against just by using the Old Testament. We must not forget the lessons of history. The Nazis made their mark on the so call, "final solution", syndrom. This is the same mind set of the Muslims terror groups. It has nothing to do with land. It has to do with wiping a people out just because of whom they are. The persecution will not end with given up the land and moving. Obama is not the important factor, but the right of survival of a people that have every right to live and enjoy the gift of that pursuit.
30 | Jason Leverette - USA, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
Obama on Jerusalem -- dishonest, ignorant, or both
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July 14, 2008 Posted by Paul at 1:08 PM
As with virtually every other issue of consequence, Barack Obama has failed to take a consistent, coherent position with respect to his goal for the city of Jerusalem. A few months ago, when he was pandering to the pro-Israel audience at AIPAC, Obama said that Jerusalem should remain undivided. For those with a basic understanding of the discourse on this issue, the meaning of his statement was clear -- Jerusalem will remain the Jewish peoples historical capital city and will remain exclusively part of the Jewish state under any future agreement with the Palestinians.
31 | Jason Leverette, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
Obama, moreover, had plenty of incentive to convey this position to the AIPAC convention. Any other descripton of the future of Jerusalem would have played poorly with an audience Obama very much wanted to impress.
However, Obama's handlers were uncomfortable with Obama's statement because the call for an undivided city might prejudice the final status of Jerusalem. The party line among mainstream advocates of the "peace process" is to call on Israel and the Palestinians negotiate without such preconditions, with the "final status" of Jerusalem to be resolved at the end of the process.
32 | Yakov Yosifovitch, CONTINUED on reread Hamas Constitution, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
Please "Search-Engine" the "Palestinian Constitution" [Allah, Islam..] and compare the Israeli-Constitution and compare the IRAQi Constitution & the Pakistanian Constitution & Saudi Constitution?? and the Lebanese Constitution & the AEGYPTian Constitution , the Jordanian Constitution & the Syrian Constitution?? & the Iranian Constitution's.... THEN & ONLY THEN can we see what the "SECULAR WORLD" is up against with them "Religious [Finatics] Worlds"!!! Note: The Israeli Constitution is ZERO Religious nor Zionist! See the word "AL TAQIYAH" ['Islamic-Zionism' WAHABI Conquest of all the INFIDELS].
33 | Jason Leverette, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
With the AIPAC convention behind him, Obama has fallen back to the party line. Attempting to "clarify" his "poorly phrased" remarks to the pro-Israel crowd, Obama now says:
The point we were simply making was that we don't want barbed wire running through Jerusalem, similar to the way it was prior to the '67 war, that it is possible for us to create a Jerusalem that is cohesive and coherent. I was not trying to predetermine what are essentially final-status issues.
34 | Jason Leverette - USA, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
But that is an easy point to make. If this is what Obama wanted to convey to AIPAC, it's difficult to believe he would have used the loaded term "undivided."
But what of Obama's current vision under which Mr. Yes-We-Can resolves to "create a Jerusalem that is cohesive and coherent" that it is not exclusively part of a Jewish state but requires no barriers? The question answers itself. Here's how David Hazony, a resident of Jerusalem, puts it:
35 | Jason Leverette - Mobile, AL, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
What could it possibly mean to want a coherent city that is the capital of two different countries, one of which has been teaching its entire population to hate the other and commit suicide bombings in its restaurants for 15 years now and all this without a proper border? I live in Jerusalem. The border between Israel and the Palestinians, wherever it may run, and no matter how long peace reigns, will never be like that between Massachusetts and Connecticut. It is unlikely ever even to be like the one between
36 | Tom, US, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
22 | moshe kaplan, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
All those palestinians want to go to their heaven????? let's help them a.s.a.p------no other solution available
===============================================================================
All those Khazar jews claim to be sent from God. I say, return to sender.
37 | Janice Stern, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
There will be no peace between the palestinians and Israel until Hamas deletes from its charter the total destruction of Israel and the jewish people. Right now, Israel has been fighting Iran, not just Hamas and this can't continue. The international community has to wake up and realize that if Iran wins then it will keep going until it can conquer Europe. Not just the jews are at stake, the christians will be next. They have no regard for human life, whatsoever. The fundamentalist muslims will conquer the world given a chance.
38 | bannister USA, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
I am sure American President will send chocolates to Bibi when he is in prison in the Hague
39 | Nicole toronto canada, Thursday Jan 22, 2009
Tthe US nees to wake up and realize that their own country has been more barbaric in invading and annillating other countries, than Israel has been in protecting their citizens, a country's right, from the terrorists within.
Perhaps the US should learn from Israel who has been dealing with the Islamic problem since the beginning of time - you can not reason with unreasonable people - a people who have no regard for human life!
40 | George, AZ, Friday Jan 23, 2009
Hoping That I am wrong...but Obama concerns me. It is clear he is no Christian - please view his interview: http://blog.beliefnet.com/stevenwaldman/2008/11/obamas_interview_with_cathleen_comments.html. God alone and his followers will protect Israel. No pact should be made with Obama.
41 | Just-James, London, UK, Friday Jan 23, 2009
I am surprised that comment 22, moshe kaplan, was "reviewed and deemed appropriate for posting" by the Jerusalem Post moderator! So the annihilation of all Palestinians is the only solution to the problem? Everyone here is in agreement with that?
42 | TruthHurts? USA, Friday Jan 23, 2009
Bibi was educated here in US. He is also an intelligent man. Intelligence is a valued asset to Obama. The more appropriate question is how well Israel interacts with George Mitchell and Hillary Clinton. I would suspect that Obama will prioritize his time to building stronger ties to the Muslim world. Obama will be biggest asset to ongoing peace aspirations of Israel than any POTUS before him. He will let others concentrate on "face time" with Israel. He will not publicly question Bibi and he will expect the same courtesy in return. What is required here is that Israel TRUST Obama.
43 | Yaakov Zelig -Israel, Friday Jan 23, 2009
What does get along mean? Should the PM of Israel be a little puppy, like all PM, since Shamir. Israel's PM's first obligation is to the Israeli citizenry that elected him. American's don't vote in Israeli elections, unless they are citizen's of Israel.
Fear G -D, not Washington, if you want success.
44 | Frank / Texas, Friday Jan 23, 2009
I think 2009 will be the year that United States will become to involved with Countries that are against Israel and have more to offer to keep the United States from economic collapse. Absolute opposite of what the United states should do, protect Israel. United states needs to keep favor with God by submission through the Holy Spirit and not bargain with these other countries, basically for oil that will force United States against Israel. If and when United States looses favor with God a lot of people will be looking for answers and that's why Christians need to ready to tell about Jesus.
45 | Lenny, Friday Jan 23, 2009
The more Israeli's feel that the recent war did not produce the results that it wanted, the more Netanyahu will benefit. If he wins, it won't matter whether Obama will get on more or less with him. Political pragmatism will kick in and play out.
46 | Deborah Tollstrup, Friday Jan 23, 2009
The best scenario would be that Obama would learn from Bibi. Obama has much to learn and he would do well to study Bibi. Hopefully, Obama will not allow the "USA #1" mantra to distract him from the reality that he is just an up and comer.
47 | Deborah Tollstrup, Friday Jan 23, 2009
The best scenario would be that Obama would learn from Bibi. Obama has much to learn and he would do well to study Bibi. Hopefully, Obama will not allow the "USA #1" mantra to distract him from the reality that he is just an up and comer.
48 | Shalom Freedman, Friday Jan 23, 2009
The real question is not about their getting along but rather whether or not Obama's policies and action will be of ultimate benefit for Israel. This is truly questionable as there are many indications that he is going to force a two- state solution which might prove detrimental to Israel. How he will make 'Hamas' a partner for peace is one question, but there can be all kinds of 'covering- up' and faking it to do this. If I wanted to be optimistic I would base this on the kind of practical wisdom Obama has shown all along.
49 | Motty Perel, Canada, Friday Jan 23, 2009
The US needs Israel at least as much as Israel needs the US. I cannot imagine that an intelligent leader, as Obama is, does not realize that fact. Israel is the only faithful agent of the US in the Middle East. Israel is the first to test and improve US weaponry.
While the intelligent people of the world perceive the value of Jews to the world, the anti-Semites will demonstrate against it no matter what.
Israelis should keep their own interests in mind. These interests never harm neither the US, nor peaceful Arabs. But what is the reason for the Gazans to be there if not to kill Israelis?
50 | Laurence D.C., Friday Jan 23, 2009
To Tom and his ilk...Addressing a misconception about Israel and where Israel's polulation hails from. Let's first address his Anti-Semetic Khazar generalization as if no Ashkenazim existed in Europe pre-1100 A.C.E. not true period! Also, Jews had been in Italy for already 900 years before that time. Secondly more than 60% of Israel's popluation today hails from the Mid-East and Spain's dispersion. Mizrachi Jews (Babalonia,Yemen, Syria) pre-date the Mohammed and his murderous Arab horde (read Arabia) by at least 800 + years. So, check some fact even though you are clearly a Hate, Tom!
51 | not bill clinton, Wednesday Jan 28, 2009
Well bannister I will send you tea from Vladimar Putin. i would love to see you rot away very very slowly, to see you suffer unbearable pain for weeks until you just die.....It would be a highlight to see a roaring and hateful anti-semite and anti-american suffer, and then just like Kenny in the South park movie, you will push the button to get into heaven and the sign will say " access denied", and then you will go where you belong ..in hell....
52 | Hypocritical antisemites support the Jewish State by posting, Thursday Jan 29, 2009
Just remember one thing. Each of these anti-semites here is bringing more money to the Jewish State Guess who has the last laugh as long as they are so stupid to viist this site
53 | Nevada_len, South Fl, Monday Sep 21, 2009
Bibi is doing the pragmatic thing. He is going along, but not really. It is eight months of Obamas Presidency and there is complete chaos in American Domestic and American Foreign policy with no end in sight of the anger that is developing in the USA. Talk, Talk, Talk but the building goes on in the "suberbs" of Jerusalem. Keep talking and keep building until a reasonable result will come. We all know that this is impossible but it does no harm to play along. As for the ritual Anti-Jewish posters on these blogs it is time to hit the "ignore button". They will be irrelevent.
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