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Friday Jul 03, 2009

Rosner's Domain: Should Israel attack, or wait for diplomacy to work?

Posted by SHMUEL ROSNER
Comments: 97
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A couple of days ago I had the pleasure of meeting him in Tel Aviv, now I have the pleasure of linking to Peter Berkowitz`piece in the Weekly Standard. 

While John Bolton argued yesterday that:

Israel's decision on using force is both easier and more urgent. Since there is no likelihood that diplomacy will start or finish in time, or even progress far enough to make any real difference, there is no point waiting for negotiations to play out. In fact, given the near certainty of Obama changing his definition of "success," negotiations represent an even more dangerous trap for Israel.

Berkowitz chronicles the more measured Israeli assessment. It is definitely not "easy" - and doesn't seem to come with "urgency":

Most countries are reluctant to discuss the details of their offensive capabilities because they don't want to provide useful information to their enemies. Israel is no different. Nonetheless, the experts with whom I spoke were willing to discuss in broad outline Israel's capacity to destroy or substantially degrade Iran's nuclear facilities. All would be delighted to see engagement, diplomacy, or sanctions succeed. All emphasized that a military strike must be the last resort, chosen only after every other option has been fully exploited. All believe that a green light from the United States, or at least a yellow light, would be indispensable. And they seem convinced that Israel has good intelligence about vital Iranian targets and could, if necessary, with a combination of aircraft and ballistic missiles, bring enough firepower to bear to set the Iranian program back far enough to justify the substantial risks.

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1  |  Terry - Eilat, Israel, Friday Jul 03, 2009
Bolton is absolutely correct. Now is the right time to strike Iran, with or without American approval (not likely to be forthcoming anyone with Obama). We have waited far too long already. Whatever the consequences of a preemptive strike, they are far better than allowing a nuclear-armed Iran.
2  |  GOLDEN NUGGET Australia, Friday Jul 03, 2009
ISRAEL has NO choice...ATTACK or PERISH !!....time will tell...
3  |  GOLDEN NUGGET Australia, Friday Jul 03, 2009
ISRAEL has NO choice...ATTACK or PERISH !!....time will tell...
4  |  Stategic expert, London, Friday Jul 03, 2009
If Israel attacks Iran, a thousand accurate and destructive rockets will hit Tel Aviv per day, for 90 days. Dimona will be go up in flame, including the Nuclear reactor there. The Chemical plant in Haifa will be destryed and thousands, probably tens of thousands of people, will die as a result of inhaling poisonous chemicals. And Iran will retaliate heavily. Not a single Jews all over the globe would feel safe. And all Israel could do would be to slow down the Iranian programme for a few months, that is all.
5  |  Mike, also Australia, Friday Jul 03, 2009
Golden Nugget: are you drunk? I suggest you sober up
6  |  PZ, Friday Jul 03, 2009
There will be no attack. Period. Anyone who thinks otherwise is dreaming.
7  |  John Profit, Friday Jul 03, 2009
Before WWII the world hoped and prayed for peace, the world talked to, and placated the Nazi fascists hoping against hope they'd see reason in the logic of peace. 70 million deaths later the Nazis were finally defeated. Unfortunately those who oppose war at all cost only make the inevitable war more deadly by giving the fascists more time to prepare. This time around 70 millions deaths will seem like a walk in the park if Islamic fascism is not nipped in the bud
8  |  TEK NY, Friday Jul 03, 2009
The basic question is always "after all diplomatic efforts fail." The only time that an Israeli attack on Iran would be justified if the US would support it politically and militarily. A provoked war against Iran could mean the destruction of Israel. It could mean a neuclear retaliation by Israel and an entire world war. Unless world wide severe sanctions against Iran fail in time, thinking of bombing Iran should be off the table.
9  |  Mike Feldman, Canada, Friday Jul 03, 2009
Mr. Strategic Expert. Tell me if I.m wrong, but I think your "strategy" is to scare Israel and world Jewry into allowing iran to have nukes. Perhaps you can dig into your strategic bag of tricks and tell us what the strategic advantage to israel would be if they allowed Iran to develop strategic nukes. Other experts on these posts(Tom) have stated that Israel has 400 nukes. Is it your strategic postulation that Israel would allow Iran to rain missiles down on it for 90 days and hold its powder (400 nukes), wlhile Iran kills its ciizens. This business about not a single Jew all over the CONT
10  |  Mike Feldman, Canada, Friday Jul 03, 2009
CONT-globe not feeling safe, sounds more like the words of an armchair terrorist than a strategic expert. I think you should go back to the drawing board and try another strategy.
11  |  Isadora Czynkin, Boston, MA, Friday Jul 03, 2009
In any country other than the U.S., Bolton would be tried and hung for treason.
12  |  Eric Scottsville NY USA, Friday Jul 03, 2009
Stategic expert-If Israel attcks Iran it will send it back to the stone ages. Oh wait.... It is already there.
13  |  phil edwards kentucky, Friday Jul 03, 2009
Israel has no choice but to send Iran to the pits of hell where they belong with their leader Satan. God has been with the Jews throughout biblical history and he will not forsake them.
14  |  Hofikoman, Friday Jul 03, 2009
A military attack on Iran is a poor way to wage warfare on the Mullocracy. Far better to increase investment in discretely supporting their internal enemies and developing a much more subtle and effective information war against them worldwide. Top it off by working to defeat them on the University campuses of the West. In the USA "armies" of Israel's rainbow nation and Zionists of all streams from English speaking countries should be visiting university campuses to confront the lies of "Zionism ='s apartheid" with the fact of who Israelis are. "One struggle, many fronts."
15  |  Hofikoman, Friday Jul 03, 2009
South African Jewry waged just such a successful struggle against the Anti-Zionists in a country whose government is heavily influenced by the same leftist assumptions energizing global anti-Zionism. How so? By being in their face, fearless, yet mannered and nuanced, and demonstrating their committment to the New South Africa again and again through donations of capital and manpower. The lynch mob against Israel was thwarted in what was formerly the land of apartheid and revolutionary insurrection, why not in the West?
16  |  John Profit, Friday Jul 03, 2009
Before WWII the world hoped and prayed for peace, the world talked to, and placated the Nazi fascists hoping against hope they'd see reason in the logic of peace. 70 million deaths later the Nazis were finally defeated. Unfortunately those who oppose war at all cost only make the inevitable war more deadly by giving the fascists more time to prepare. This time around 70 millions deaths will seem like a walk in the park if Islamic fascism is not nipped in the bud
17  |  Tom, US, Friday Jul 03, 2009
By all means attack and attack and attack. It's the ONLY speed that Israel has had for 60 years now, to attack. I do strongly advise you to attack. Because with your failed policies you have the middle east so destabilised that they could over run you with ball bats. You could kil a few thousand before every single one of you is dead. Hey, even a better idea. Nuke yourselves and save everybody else the trouble.
18  |  andy-london, Friday Jul 03, 2009
This is what Israel should do.When the midget ama and his mullahs are screeching in the mosque they should fire a rocket [not nuclear,as we dont want the reformers nuked ]and send them to where they DONT want to go,then the shah can come back and run Iran 21st century style.Next do the same to syria and their mullahs and Israel can shove the pallis in to live there with the hezbullah and hamas crowd as one big happy family.
19  |  Hershel, USA, Friday Jul 03, 2009
When Israel blew up the nuclear reactor in Syria what happened as far as retaliation is concerned? Nothing. Nor did Israel seem to need permission from the US in order to act. The Syrian strike was one of the few things that the Olmert regime got right. Yet with regard to Iran there is nothing but hesitation. Granted the risks are enormous, and the courage needed for taking action is equally enormous. But the risks of inaction are equally perilous. Natanhayu's political future and his place in history hang in the balance. As does the role of Israel in the Middle East.
20  |  bannister , USA, Friday Jul 03, 2009
The real failure here, The consequences. First If you hit Bushere you spill a thousand tons of Nuclear material creating a Chernobyl for which you will be rightly blamed by the Millions of people you kill or sicken. Many of the other sites are also loaded with materials which you will disperse. You will bring down the wrath of the world on your heads. This is the minimum scenario. The maximum scenario is quite different. You attack, Iran is ready and waiting wipes out most of you planes and hits you with Nukes it was just about to announce. Who could blame them?
21  |  Henry, Chile, Friday Jul 03, 2009
To 4 Strategic expert, You forgot the magic genie that will come out of alladins lamp and destroy all Israel and all jews and all the infidels in the whole world. To bad the genie is asleep and has not been able to quell the popular revolt in Teheran. It is not a military problem for Israel to raze Iran and simoultaneously crush Hizballah and Hamas and Syria if necessary, it is a political and economic problem (huge costs) and unknown beneffits. But if in need or dire straits a full mobilization of the IDF and all its resources is the mightiest and most formidable war machine in the region.
22  |  firefighter_california, Friday Jul 03, 2009
methinks that strategic expert doth inhale much smoke and that said smoke doth veribly produce much confuision within his cranial cavity.
23  |  Margie Wisconsin, Friday Jul 03, 2009
Just get rid of the Supreme backwards leader and the illigitimate president of Iran and things might fall in some kind of order. I don't think the the 21st century people of Iran are against Israel or USA. They probably like us more than the obama's do.
24  |  Ronald, Friday Jul 03, 2009
Strategic expert, You Brits have got to get over your clinical depression over the loss of your empire. It is beginning to morph into full-blown psychosis. If you really must beat up Jews, come to my house in one of your former colonies. I'd like to find out just how tough your really are.
25  |  Strategic common sense, Israel, Friday Jul 03, 2009
#4,Strategic expert,London="a thousand accurate and destructive rockets will hit Tel Aviv per day, for 90 days. Dimona will be go up in flame, including the Nuclear reactor there. The Chemical plant in Haifa will be destryed.."And all this will happen even if Israel warned Iran about the consequences? I doubt it.The most they will be tolerated to do is retaliate against Dimona and military targets with reasonable accuracy or else... So Strategic expert, do your friends a favor and pass this comment to them.
26  |  Michael in Irelandi, Friday Jul 03, 2009
Bolton - a neo-con idiot with credentials of the disastrous American attack on Iraq. You would think that people with Bolton's track record would crawl into a hole somewhere and keep a low profile. No - they keep surfacing and idiots keep interviewing them and printing their spleen and bile. The world needs Bolton types like it needs a hole in the head. For God's sake do not demean your newspaper by giving them space to spout their agenda of hate and war.
27  |  carlos acosta, Friday Jul 03, 2009
Israel should attack now.
28  |  B.A. The Nederlands, Friday Jul 03, 2009
To #4 Dear "Stategic expert", what do you think will happen to Iran while "a thousand accurate and destructive rockets hit Tel Aviv per day and for 90 days, Dimona and de chemical plants go up in flames and killingntens of thousands"? Do you think that Iran would - by so doing - have wiped itself off the map? Can you garantee that Iran will not be the first to run to the UN begging for cease fire (as Arabs do) if conflict with Israel ensures?
29  |  Sajani, Stuttgart, Germany, Friday Jul 03, 2009
Strategic expert (4), London or Londonstan? I tell you the truth: I don't wish Israel to go to war against Iran. But if it has to, then it will be fatal to Iran to the extent that Syria, Hizbollah and Hamas will be entirely scared to commit suicide despite of 72 perpetual virgins promised to them by Bin Laden. Israel will bleed too, but not like what you're hoping for, because only about a dozen missiles will hit Israel before Iran is completely subdued. After this, one of the smallest nation on earth will become our global super power. It sounds ridiculous, but trust my word, No US, No EU.
30  |  Strategic Ex-pert, Friday Jul 03, 2009
If the Allies invade Nazi-occupied Europe, bombs will reign on British and American cities, destroying munitions plants and vital factories, hundreds of thousands will die of the bombs or their repercussions, and no American or British citizen anywhere will feel safe.
31  |  AM Pons, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
#4 the Strategic expert , London, clearly is a propagandist (meaning paid professional LIAR) for the corrupt Iranian government from hell. Actually the main threat of the nuclear weapons in the hands of the Mullahs is to use on Iran itself, if there is a civil war. Those weapons are meant to be used by the Basiji and the Revolutionary Guard, on any city, or any army unit, that rebels against the Mullahs satanic government from hell. Because the Iranian leaders know that a civil war would probably begin in provincial cities and it would pick up defecting army units as it marches towards Tehran.
32  |  dukes south yorks england., Saturday Jul 04, 2009
lets be honest after all the death and destruction caused by Israel over the past 60yrs and more a true act of retaliation is long overdue.
33  |  TEK NY, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
When Israel bombed Iraq and Syria's reactors, the threat of massive retaliation from these countries was considered an acceptable risk. Not so with Iran. They have massive missile capabilities along with a disregard for the lives of their soldiers as shown in the Iraq/Iran war. Bombing Iran would cause a neuclear war to erupt and a great peril to the exsistance of Israel. In the most dire of circumstances, The US must be the prime agent not Israel. Diplomacy must be given a full chance to succeed and any blustering talk at this time is reckless and should be shut down.
34  |  cares1996 usa, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
fire when ready,i know and pray we are still supporting our allies ,either way the longer you wait the stronger there getting,they feed on anger,fear and count on procrastination and appeasement .go bibi give them agood whooping
35  |  cares1996 usa, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
fire when ready,i know and pray we are still supporting our allies ,either way the longer you wait the stronger there getting,they feed on anger,fear and count on procrastination and appeasement .go bibi give them agood whooping
36  |  JERRY BORIS PHILA PA USA, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
BIBI NETANYAHU NOW CONFRONTS THE SAME PROBLEM OF IRAN'S NUKES THAT THE COURAGEOUS MENACHEM BEGIN FACED WITH SADDAM HUSSEIN HAVING IN 1981, INSTALLED A FRENCH-BUILT ATOM BOMB PLANT, COURTESY JACQUES CHIRAC. BEGIN KNEW HE COULD NOT WAIT FOR THE WORLD, SO M. BEGIN TOOK NECESSSARY ACTION, WHICH ISRAEL TODAY IS TOO FRIGHTENED AND STUPID TO TAKE, WAITING FOR IRAN'S AHMADINEJAD TO BLOW UP THE NATION, WHILE THE LEFT AND LIB ERAL NINCOMPOOPS DITHER! WHAT ARE YOU WITING FOR? WORLD APPROVAL FOR THE JEWS, OVER SAUDI OPEC OBJECTIONS? THE REAL BOSSES!! DUMMIES!!!
37  |  Bob, Washington, DC, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
To #4, your post is absurd. You obviously don't know what you're talking about. Gaza and Lebanon would burn if one rocket were to hit Tel Aviv.
38  |  Roland Berger, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
Let's not exagerate.It is probably true that thousands of missiles will hit Israel.They already did,with very limited casuatlies.That's because they are raw,innacurate weapons.Even if Dimona is hit,does anyone believe that the nukes are there,rows upon rows,awaiting destruction ?Yes,the population will be forced again to the unpleasant life in bomb shelters for a while but not much more than that.The only real threat would be the use of chemical weapons by the Iranians.I do not see them,even the Paradise -searching mullas,willing to risk the real Israeli wrath.
39  |  Shagatron, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
Iran needs the backing and the OK from Russia the way that Israel needs the OK from Washington if either are to succeed. Without the backing of the superpowers neither can be completely effective in their goals. Forget all the saber rattling in the news. Neither side wants to go it alone because both sides know they will be starting a full scale war that will drag their neighbors into the fight. Israel will need the US for critical supplies just as Iran, Gaza, and Syria will need the help from Russia. The real decision will be made by Russia, not Iran. Russia must agree to supply Iran.
40  |  GOLDEN NUGGET Australia, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
G'day MIKE...is your response "are you drunk? I suggest you sober up" the best your apparently dismal IQ can come up with?.. and what does that mean..what is the relevance?..you have revealed yourself as someone with limited intelegence...incapable of understanding someone else's view..not a nice example of a true blue ..fair go..fair dinkum ..Aussie.....SHAME !!
41  |  GOLDEN NUGGET Australia, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
G'day MIKE...is your response "are you drunk? I suggest you sober up" the best your apparently dismal IQ can come up with?.. and what does that mean..what is the relevance?..you have revealed yourself as someone with limited intelegence...incapable of understanding someone else's view..not a nice example of a true blue ..fair go..fair dinkum ..Aussie.....SHAME !!
42  |  samir, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
What if at the end if all this turn out to be like another Mr. Bush hype about Iraq having "weapons of mass destruction" after all IAEA as well as Iran refute Israel's claims.
43  |  Linda, Illinois, U.S.A., Saturday Jul 04, 2009
Recall that Israel is the chosen people, ye bloggers of little faith. G-d will NEVER allow the State of Israel to be destroyed now that she is a nation again, fulfilling the prophecy spoken in the book of Isaiah. As for Iran, check out Ezekiel chapters 38 & 39. G-d make His covenant with Abraham in the book of Genesis thousands of years ago, and, unlike the human race, doesn't renege on His promises. Happy 4th of July, Obama's in the White House deconstructing our constitution as fast as he can with the help of his treasonous adminstration and state run media.
44  |  Abz, Southern Hemisphere, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
It is very likely that if Israel attacks Iran, it will suffer immediate and heavy retaliation from several Arab nations. It will not be a simple task. However, I would hate to wake up one morning to see on the news that Iran, or anyone for that matter, has launched a first-strike, full-scale assault on Israel. I feel that, yes, Israel needs to take action now or very, very soon but it must be understood that this will be far from an easy task. They, Israel, being highly intelligent in combat and strategy, would know this. May God's Will be done in this situation.
45  |  lyes hassani USA, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
israel has over 400 nukes and I think the iraninan have to think twice
46  |  Frank B, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
Bolton, one of the USA's greatest friend of Israel, was pushed out of his UN Ambassador job by the same liberals who elected Obama. His point about Obama's use of "diplomacy" is crucial. The One is no friend of Israel and he's using engagement to run down the nuclear clock until Israel will find it more difficult or impossible to attack Iran.
47  |  Alex, Cardiff, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
"Strategic expert" from London - is you self-pleasure session over? Then listen. Nobody takes this nuclear crap for real. Attack will first hit AA, command-control, terror training centers, and missile sites. Only then military industry and Natanz site. The idea is to make Iran less dangerous, overall. Take recent Israeli IAF operations in Gaza, Syria and Sudan.. magnify 10-20 times.. that is what Iran needs not "democracy". However, without major provocation such high-intensity actions aren't likely. Maybe after they tested their bomb..
48  |  marvin in Australia, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
I am sure their is a point in Iranian nuclear progress beyond which Israel will not go,being monitored carefully by Israeli intelligence.
49  |  JOSE NIGRIN, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
IS THERE ANY EVIDENCE THAT IRAN ALREADY HAS AN ATOMIC BOMB? ARE THE TERRORIST ACTIVITIES INCREASING? WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE DEFINITIVE RESULTS OF THE IRANIAN ELECTIONS, FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE OF IRAN POSTURE FOR ISRAEL AND THE WHOLE MIDDLE EAST.
50  |  shmeelshiya, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
#4...wishful thinking on your part, but it's not going to go down that way...Israel will continue to flourish, and you and Iran will continue to circle the toilet bowl...and then flush. you must feel right at home in London.
51  |  shmeelshiya, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
#4...wishful thinking on your part, but it's not going to go down that way...Israel will continue to flourish, and you and Iran will continue to circle the toilet bowl...and then flush. you must feel right at home in London.
52  |  GEORGE . TORONTO., Saturday Jul 04, 2009
IT IS THE RIGHT TIME NOW TO DESTROY IRAN NUCLEAR SITES!! IN 1938 ENGLAND WAITED TO LONG TO ATTACK GERMANY AND THE RESULT WAS- 50 MILLION PEOPLE DIED!!!
53  |  CHOI USA, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
Strategic "Expert" in London, And you "know" a "1000 rockets per Day x90 days" will "hit Tel Aviv" HOW? Do you for 1 second think Tehran would escape IF even 1 Rocket hit Israel? THE PURPOSE OF YOUR POST IS TO INTIMIDATE ISRAEL ,ISRAELIS,AND JEWS WORLDWIDE. AFTER THE ENTIRE HISTORY OF THE JEWISH PEOPLE, DO Y-O-U REALLY THINK YOU CAN INTIMIDATE ANYBODY? _ _ _k YOU AND IRAN!
54  |  GEORGE . TORONTO., Saturday Jul 04, 2009
IT IS THE RIGHT TIME NOW TO DESTROY IRAN NUCLEAR SITES!! IN 1938 ENGLAND WAITED TO LONG TO ATTACK GERMANY AND THE RESULT WAS- 50 MILLION PEOPLE DIED!!!
55  |  CHOI USA, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
Strategic "Expert" in London, And you "know" a "1000 rockets per Day x90 days" will "hit Tel Aviv" HOW? Do you for 1 second think Tehran would escape IF even 1 Rocket hit Israel? THE PURPOSE OF YOUR POST IS TO INTIMIDATE ISRAEL ,ISRAELIS,AND JEWS WORLDWIDE. AFTER THE ENTIRE HISTORY OF THE JEWISH PEOPLE, DO Y-O-U REALLY THINK YOU CAN INTIMIDATE ANYBODY?
56  |  Manila, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
i remember raid on entebbe. what did the Global community back then do? Nothing!. if all diplomacy fails. shock the world, no one messes with the best.
57  |  skiut tland, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
If not now, when
58  |  Chaim - Israel, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
If we truly intend to stop a mad, fanatical regime from using nuclear bombs against us, there is no doubt about the answer to this question. What on earth would be the purpose of waiting? Waiting for what? Obama has made it crystal clear he will do nothing. We must destroy Iran's nuclear weapons making potential NOW!
59  |  Duncan Lennox, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
The response to Bolton`s piece in the WaPo (ie bomb Iran now) was ~50 to 1 against the idea with a very high % calling for Bolton`s head & the Wapo`s retraction. Of course there were a few Zions & AIPACers that were in favour. Many pointed out that Bolton & the AIPCAcers (Wolfowitz,Feith,Perle,Edelman,Libby,Josh Bolton,etc were part of the Israel Lobby that created the lies that got the US to invade Iraq. A wrongful war that only Israel wanted. I hope the WaPo response to Bolton`s article is truely representative of US opinion. If so AIPAC won`t get far with their Iran bombing plan.
60  |  kiuts Damascus on Thames, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
The present Iranian regime hoisted the pirate flag (in case anybody was still wondering) with its last election and ensuing celebrations, still in progress. Syria, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Iraq -- all you who favor these regimes are welcome to go take up residence (Yemen only for the select few). There are secular dictatorships and theocratic dictatorships, monarchic dictatorships and Sultanic delights as well. The human beings who live there have a right to live in peace. But any government that means *ill* should expect ill -- preemptively, if preemptive ill be needed.
61  |  Albert I Berkowitz, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
In reply to Duncan Lennox, the facts and the numbers indicated that Israel was split on the War on Iraq. In 2002,support of the war was in the 70% category for the US, and in the 60% for Israel. Perez for, but Sharon against.He was of the opinion that Iran was the number one threat in the Middle East, not Iraq and that an attack on Iraq would distract the world away from the main threat. I have been to Israel many times, and have spoken to Israelis about the war in Iraq and even Afganistan. The response:while the wars per say had nothing to do with them, winning them was very important.
62  |  Albert I Berkowitz, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
In reply to Duncan Lennox, the facts and the numbers indicated that Israel was split on the War on Iraq. In 2002,support of the war was in the 70% category for the US, and in the 60% for Israel. Perez for, but Sharon against.He was of the opinion that Iran was the number one threat in the Middle East, not Iraq and that an attack on Iraq would distract the world away from the main threat. I have been to Israel many times, and have spoken to Israelis about the war in Iraq and even Afganistan. The response:while the wars per say had nothing to do with them, winning them was very important.
63  |  George, Florida, Saturday Jul 04, 2009
Russia will intervene, and similarly to previous conflicts, will not allow Israel to win against a Muslim country. The US with Obama will just nod in agreement.