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Thursday Sep 24, 2009

Rosner's Domain: Will Russia agree to impose sanctions?

Posted by SHMUEL ROSNER
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This is what the NYT was reporting today:

President Obama, in his first visit to the opening of the United Nations General Assembly, made progress Wednesday on two key issues, wringing a concession from Russia to consider tough new sanctions against Iran and securing support from Moscow and Beijing for a Security Council resolution to curb nuclear weapons.

 Marc Ambinder was more suspicious of administration's briefing-bragging:

What might have prompted Medvedev  casual shoulder shrug on sanctions? Last week's decision to change U.S. missile defense strategy in Europe? The official, reading reporters' doubt, said that a quid-pro-quo never came up in U.S. discussions.  It was more, he said, a factor of President Obama's having convinced Medvedev that the U.s. and Russia "share common interests" on a variety of measures, including Iran.  A reporter pointed out that the Bush administration used the same language to describe its relationship with Iran, but the Obama official said that never before had a Russian leader been as open about the possibility of sanctions. "I really don't see any daylight between us vis-a-vis Iran," the official said.

I had several meetings in Jerusalem yesterday with Israeli officials. Not even one believed that Russia will come around this time and agree to impose meaningful sanctions.

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1  |  Peace Symbol, Thursday Sep 24, 2009
If in fact Russia decides to aid the rest of the world in sanctions against Iran ( the Western World ) I have to say Danka shen President Medvedev. It will not be easy for many to hold the sanctions as there are mutual interest of many countries to market many goods an services. There does come a time when people have to agree its time to accept these losses rather than risk a more a serious alternative. I re-iterate danka shen to Russia if they see the sanctions as the best alternative
2  |  Terry - Eilat, Israel, Thursday Sep 24, 2009
The NYT is hardly a credible authority to quote, particularly on anything to do with Obama & foreign policy. Obama's speech at the UN was utopian fantasy, such a total misunderstanding of how the world really works, just delusional. And, of course, it was the most anti-Israel speech any US president has ever made. Any sanctions the Russians would agree to would be so weak as to be meaningless. This is just more make-believe success from a total failure, more image over substance.
3  |  Daran, UK, Thursday Sep 24, 2009
many on Mr Rosner's blog will no doubt urge Israel to ignore this latest development and proceed directly to military options (which they imagine Israel has, but which I would dispute). It may or may not be the case that Russia is considering Obama's call for crippling sanctions. In any event there will be no international concensus or force without this having been tried (unless Iranians make a fatal error and procede to weaponisation). Those who champion other options need answer to two important questions about the nature of strike and the likely responce, those answers require allies
4  |  lydia, Thursday Sep 24, 2009
Sanctions against Israel? most definitely! Can't talk about sanction against Iran while Israel remains in blatant violation of Int. Law and illegally occupies Palestinian. It is not Iran that has ghettoized and slaughtered the Palestinians to steal their land, nor is it Iran bombing unarmed civilians with white phosphorus, dime missiles and cluster bombs. Neither is Iran incarcerating the entire members of the US supervised Palestinian elected government. As one of the founding members of the NT Iran is well within its rights to Nuclear technology.
5  |  Tom, US, Thursday Sep 24, 2009
??, ? ??????, ??? ?????? ????????? ??????? ? ???????????? ??????. ?? ??? ?????? ????????????? ??????????????? ?????? ?????????? ????? ????? ?? ???. ???? ????????????? ?????, ??? ??? ? ????? ?????? ???????? ???-???????? ????? ? ????????? ? ????, ??? ??? ?????????????. ??, ?????, ??? ???? ????????, ??? ??? ??????.
6  |  Mike Feldman, Canada, Thursday Sep 24, 2009
Soon Obama will be held to his word. Despite the fatuousness of his speech at the UN, the one thing I took note of was his saying that a nuclear-armed Iran was not acceptable, Either he doesn't mean what he says, or he will have to be part of the solution for making sure Iran does not get the bomb. Watching Amadenejad yesterday, no serious person call think that Iran will capitulate to sanctions and foresake their goal for a nuclear weapon. Accordingly there is only one option. At a minimum Obama is obliged to aid Israel in exercising the military option.
7  |  Mark Jeffery Koch Cherry Hill, New Jersey USA, Thursday Sep 24, 2009
To Lydia, the hater of Israel and Jews...... Israel has not slaughtered Palestinians or ghettoized them. More Palestinians have been killed in intercine fighting by their own people than by Israel. No one stole their land. Read the bible, not the Protocols of the Elders of Zion or Mein Kampf which must be your only reference materials. The Palestinians could have had a flourishing State with contiguous borders but instead chose victimiization and terror and raised their young to hate Israel and Jews. They chose as their leaders terrorists or inept people incapable of improving their lives.
8  |  Tom, US, Thursday Sep 24, 2009
7 | Mark - Just the same as the jews in Israel teach their young to hate the Palestinians. So you have no higher ground among the tribe over the Palestinians. If anything, the Palestinians have more factual reasons to hate the jews than vice versa. Regarding the bible, it isn't a deed for fake European jews to displace the indigenous people of Palestine and place them under a strict internment in to the Gaza concentration camp as well as the West Bank concentration camp. When it comes to hatred nobody has it up on you and your tribe and their racist jewish supremacist Talmud.
9  |  Ben, Thursday Sep 24, 2009
Russia will not support sanctions but will arm Iran because of:Iran is the NATO enemy,weakening it.Iran`s nyk will rise international tension and oil prices so importained for Russia(they speak openly on the theme).Obama affects naivity because his leftist "-loving" supporters and Jews catching at a straw.
10  |  PZ, Thursday Sep 24, 2009
So Rosner's "Israeli officials" now have magical Kremlin mind-reading powers? Look, NOBODY outside the Kremlin can know the real answer to this question -- like everyone else, we can only wait and see. Rosner is merely spinning, plain and simple (he's also misstating Ambinder). **Real question is: what possible reason could Rosner even have for making this spin, for pushing this view that these "officials" are correct? Shouldn't he WANT Russian cooperation?** Once again, I think Rosner should do everyone a favor and stop trying to be so clever -- he's not even helping his own cause.
11  |  K2K NYC, USA, Thursday Sep 24, 2009
at a certain point, hopefully now, Russia has to see it is dangerous for Russia to have a nuclear Iran threatening Moscow, with no consideration of Israel in the equation.
12  |  Tom, US, Thursday Sep 24, 2009
Sorry that the Cyrillic didn't come through. I think that as a result of the statesmanship of Obama Russia is far more likely to assist with sanctions than before. I don't see them getting behind very strong sanctions but something is better than nothing. Keep in mind that nobody is in a better position to know exactly what is taking place with Iran's nuclear program, whether peaceful or otherwise because Russian advisers are helping. According to them not only is Iran NOT building a bomb but Iran doesn't have the know how to build one.
13  |  moron galut, Thursday Sep 24, 2009
they will exract a price every step of the way and betray the west anyway--there are too many nuslims with too much oil and russians are ALL KGB --americans are naive and obama even worse
14  |  Mark Jeffery Koch Cherry Hill, New Jersey USA, Thursday Sep 24, 2009
To Tom the anti-semite. You cannot find one school in the entire country of Israel that teaches their children to hate Arabs. Not one! You can find schools in Gaza, the West Bank as well as in Syria and Saudia Arabia accusing Jews of being monkeys and pigs and less than human and spouting their Hitler like venom about blood libel and the joy of killing Jews. There are no concentration camps in Gaza or the West Bank. America has killed more civilians in Afganistan and Iraq the past year than Israel has since in all its wars since 1948. Your anti semitism and ignorance of the facts abound.
15  |  Daran UK, Thursday Sep 24, 2009
Tom the deal Iran did with AQKhan network offered a package of technical drawings and procedures which contained the spec and build guide for a chinese designed nuke. The Iranian themselves do'nt dispute that, only that they did not act on that info. Perhaps the russians know for a fact they do'nt know to detonate a device because the russian explosives expert reportedly helping Iranian nuclear program has told them as much. The "secret" annex reported by PA cites intel reports of commissioning of definably non peaceful nuke tech. I am wary of such intel but should it prove to be correct???
16  |  Daran UK, Thursday Sep 24, 2009
Mark while I accept the vast majority of jewish schools in Israel and occupied territories do'nt teach children to hate, but the land of faithful and such groups do inculcate their children to hate, to deny it only makes you appear false to those aware of such entities.
17  |  Tom, US, Thursday Sep 24, 2009
15 | Daran UK - Thank you for the input. I have no doubt what so ever that the Chinese have been involved. What I doubt is what actually exists in the Iranian nuclear program. ALL the evidence I have seen says that no active bomb program exists. To Mark the HATER of ALL non jews, I saw pictures of Israeli children drawing 'greetings' on bombs that were delivered to Gaza. You phony European jews are NOT semitic so quit talking crap moron. I am a National Socialist and Hitler and the Reich had no mass extermination program. You are a liar with that CRAP !
18  |  Tom, US, Thursday Sep 24, 2009
I know for a fact that Iran has had rolling energy blackouts. So the need for a nuke energy program is very real. I also know for a fact that their uranium has been enriched only to the 3% level. Which is very much in keeping with a peaceful nuke energy program. To attack Iran under such conditions is against international law and I assure you that you will face the ICC in these regards just the same as your beloved IDF will face the ICC regarding Gaza and civilian deaths. So let the big boys take care of these things instead of your amateur mossad !
19  |  cares1996, Friday Sep 25, 2009
Well I truly hope they comply,however I think a fleet arriving early has far more promise of reaching there sensible side then words on paper even though it was unanimously approved by security council,it appeared medeved was peeved when Obama said this was not making empty resolutions,sarkozy looked as if his puppy just got ran over,well as always pray for the best ,but be prepared for the worse.I`m a little relived,for there was no other option that stood any chance,lets hope our service personnell get the appreciation and support they need also, whatever it takes when generals ask.A.S.A.P.
20  |  Bloodyscot Dallas, Texas, Friday Sep 25, 2009
YES, Russia will impose sanctions if talks fail but not on oil, so sanctions will be limited and mostly weak. I think Iran will take a step back for now, making nukes at this time is not a good option for Iran but they will want to keep it as an option for later. Iran will not give up nuclear power for electricity which is a right for any country that signed the NPT. So what is the US/UN asking Iran to do, give up ablility to make fuel rods or reprocess them, that is legal under NPT atleast to a point or more inspectors maybe but that doesn't work well unless full access for everywhere.
21  |  Teresa, USA, Friday Sep 25, 2009
No, do we really believe there was just timber on that ship?
22  |  David W. Lincoln, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, Friday Sep 25, 2009
So, why then were the Poles and Czechs thrown under the bus to get rid of the Missile shield, when it wasn't that to persuade the Kremlin to take a harder line vis a vie Iran? Something doesn't add up, and frankly it stinks to high heaven. Leave it to the current occupant of the Oval Office to say whatever makes him look good, and for him to have the final word on the definitions of the words he uses, so that he looks good. As for the Kremlin, they will bail on tougher sanctions when they say, "They are not working". That is if they agree to tougher sanctions in the first place.
23  |  David W. Lincoln, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, Friday Sep 25, 2009
To Tom, Jews are not allowed to own property in Arab lands. Are Arabs allowed to own property in Israel? Therefore, because you sign onto the deadening phenomenon of dividing the world into the Dar al Islam and Dar al Harb, the property rights of the Dar al Harb are not protected and/or respected at all, whereas the Dar al Islam's property rights are protected and/or respected part of the time. Which speaks to the backwardness of yourself, and those you speak for.
24  |  tomas usa, Friday Sep 25, 2009
shalom yisroel,,,the un is a buzzards roost,as we've learned in this 13 billion year old creation,aint nothin lasts forever,,,the un is host to buzzards ,,israel and nations similarly inclined ought to bolt,i e,,,give the u.n. a 3 month notice to vacate the roost,turn the un into a council of eagles
25  |  Mike Feldman, Canada, Saturday Sep 26, 2009
Re: Tom # 17 Unfortunately my post of yesterday somehow did not get published. I will try again. In #17, Tom states: "I am a National Socialist and Hitler and the Reich had no mass extermination program. The National Sociaist Party's name is derived form the first two syllables of Nationsozialitische Deutche Arbeitei, the official German language name of the National Socialist German Workers Party, commonly known in English as the N-zi Party. Members seldom refer to themselves as N-z-s. I would like to quote Article 7 from the Cotswold Agreement which is essentially the "Mission Statement" CONT
26  |  Mike Feldman, Canada, Saturday Sep 26, 2009
#17 Tom CONT. of the National Socialist Party. it begins with: "We believe that Adolph Hitler was a gift of an inscrutable Providence to a world on the brink of a Zionist-Bolshevik catastrophe, and only the blazing spirit of this heroic man can give us the strength and inspiraation to rise, like the early Christians from the depths of persecution and hatred".. Tom is a self-confessed proud member of the N-z- Party. Anyone who sympathizes with his views is a N-z- collaberator. It is most unfortunate that by the misuse of the word, hurled as an anti-semitc taunt, that the word cannot be used.
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