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Wednesday Sep 30, 2009

Rosner's Domain: Jewish opinion: are we suddenly concerned about Obama?

Posted by SHMUEL ROSNER
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Here are some quick comments on the new AJC annual survey of Jewish public opinion that was just published. As Domain readers know by now, this is not the first time for me to survey this survey. You can read some of my comments on last year's survey here and the survey for 2008 is here (in case you want to compare), 2007 here,  2006 here. Now, let's go to work:

1.

As Ben Smith was quick to note in The Politico "An annual survey of American Jews finds support for President Obama's Mideast policy, though by narrower margins than backed him in November". This might mean one of two things:

A. That Jewish support of Obama's policies vis-a-vis the Middle East erodes because of - well - the policy doesn't seem to work. As the experts of The Israel Factor indicated earlier this week, if American Jews feel uncomfortable about Obama's policies they will not be alone: Israeli Jews think Obama is a terrible President.

B. However... Smith smartly compared AJC's numbers to election exit polls. This can only work if one assumes that both are accurate and that the group polled is similar. I'm not at all sure this is the case - and become even more suspicious when I compare AJC 2009 to AJC 2008.

Take a look:

In AJC 2009: Do you approve or disapprove of the Obama Administration's handling of US-Israel relations? - 54% yes, 32% no.

In AJC 2008: If the election for president were being held today, for whom would you vote--John McCain, Republican, or Barack Obama, Democrat? - 57% Obama, 30% McCain.

True, the questions are different, but the numbers indicate a strikingly similar level of Jewish support for Obama - much lower than the one indicated by exit polls. This can happen if one of the polls (or both) are lousy, or if the groups polled aren't the same (all you have to do is use different methods of finding and defining Jews). Clearly - and AJC was blamed for quite a while now that this is the case - there's a reasonable case to be made that the group of the "annual survey" is more conservative than other polls dealing with Jewish opinion.  

2. 

I think that the major finding - maybe the major blow to Obama's policies - is not-even-well-hidden in the question about settlements: "Do you agree or disagree with the Obama Administration's call for a stop to all new Israeli settlement construction?" - the survey asks. The outcome: 51% disagree, only 41% agree. Hey, but didn't all pundits and commentators (myself included in several cases) thought and wrote that Obama's focus on settlements was politically smart because American Jews have no desire to see settlement expansion, and because they will support his message of freeze? Yes, they, we, did (even American Jewish leaders didn't like the idea of needing to defend settlements. Proofs here, here, here). And is AJC's survey is to be trusted, we were wrong for one of two reasons:

A. Jews don't think what we thought they do. In other words: they do not oppose settlements as much as we believed they do.

B. And I think in this case option B is the one to pick: The Obama administration was going much too far, and the Israeli government was much better at explaining why it can't go this far. In other words: Most American Jews still don't have much sympathy for settlements, but (like Israelis) also didn't understand the rush to push Israel around, and didn't quite see the logic of "total freeze" now.

3.

This really looks like a trick question: "As compared with one year ago, are you more optimistic about the chance for a lasting peace between Israel and the Arabs, less optimistic, or do you think the chance for a lasting peace is about the same as it was one year ago?"

But what did US Jews say a year ago? - 56% have said that Israelis and Arabs will never be able to "settle their differences and live in peace". This means that the 65% US Jews that are as optimistic as last year about the peace process are really quite pessimistic. 

4.

This wasn't in the survey a year ago, but it was there two and three years ago: "Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? 'The goal of the Arabs is not the return of occupied territories but rather the destruction of Israel.'"

Compare:

2002: 82% agree, 15% disagree, 4% not sure.

2003: 81% agree, 16% disagree, 3% not sure.

2004: 84% agree, 13% disagree, 3% not sure.

2005: 78% agree, 18% disagree, 5% not sure.

2006: 81% agree, 13% disagree, 6% not sure.

2007: 82% agree, 12% disagree, 6% not sure.

2009: 75% agree, 19% disagree, 5% not sure.

My point: the number of US Jews believing that the Arabs want to destroy Israel is lower than the numbers of recent years. It is not yet lower enough to declare that what we see here is real shift, but it is remarkable enough to find worthy of special note. Whether what we see here is an "Obama effect of good will" or just a temporary blimp (or both) we will only know in a couple of years.

5.

American Jews want Arab to recognize Israel as a "Jewish State". That's an achievement for Netanyahu who (like Obama) was looking for message that can resonate with this group.

6.

As Jim Besser already remarked, Jewish opinion is now supportive of American military strike on Iran. This is interesting because last year 47% opposed, 42% supported such attack (this year it's 56% support, 32% oppose). And there were other indications that US Jews feel very uncomfortable about the possibility of violent action against Iran: recent poll by J Street (I generally don't trust their polls, but will use this one just for the sake of comparison) found that there's a very small majority of Jews (41% vs. 40%) who believe that "America should not attack Iran with military force if they are on the verge of developing nuclear weapons".

J Street's poll was back in March, we're in September. This means that in half a year Jewish opinion have shifted from "no to attack" to "yes to attack". That's quite a change considering that fact that nothing much had changed. Well - nothing but the forged Iranian election and the realization that Obama's dream of "engagement" was no more than a "dream". It is good to know that when reality knocks even the stubborn Jews can change their minds.

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Comments: Post your own comment
1  |  Cortland Richmond, Wednesday Sep 30, 2009
The difference in exit polls versus pre-election surveys can -- in my opinion -- be laid at the feet of the enthusiastically evangelist Sarah Palin. Support for Israel may have softened because of taking a closer look at where our interests lie as Americans. Israel should act in its own best interests, as its government sees them, but those need not coincide with what the US government wants. That inevitably leads to divergence between the two nations. And should traditionally liberal American Jews support an increasingly illiberal Israel?
2  |  Shel Zahav, Wednesday Sep 30, 2009
One mixed up piece. Can somebody please explain: In AJC 2009: Do you approve or disapprove of the Obama Administration?s handling of US-Israel relations? - 54% yes, 32% no.
3  |  Steven J, Wednesday Sep 30, 2009
The war in Afghanistan is deeply unpopular and not supported by the majority. To think Americans support a war with Iran is foolish. The most important feeling is that Americans do not like Israel dragging America into another war. Shmuel gets it wrong....it is not the jewish support that matters but the campaign donations that rich American jews provide. And that remains stable.
4  |  Virginia-Orlando, Wednesday Sep 30, 2009
I find it ironic that American Jews do not support the settlements as much as I thought they did. I wonder what percentage of non-Jewish Americans, like myself, support the settlements, as I do. I support them wholeheartedly. My reasons: Ancient prophecy [God's promises]. I am not sure, though it is likely, that the formation of Israel in 1948 was fulfillment of those prophesies. However, the way I see it, those who accept it now, will accept it when [ALL Jacob's/Israel's children are gathered there by the hand of God] As for me, I wouldn't want to be in non-acceptance mode then!!!
5  |  Amnon, the Great AMERICAN Southwest, Wednesday Sep 30, 2009
It is clearly obvious that Bonzo isn't going to do a thing about the Iranian nuclear threat. That 1.) he doesn't have the cojones to do so - and you don't get cojones sitting 20 years in Uncle Jeremiah's cabin, and 2.) he probably doesn't want to, as the elimination of Israel removes a major obstacle to Obamanation. So, in the next 3-6 months it is going to be down to the men in the INS subs, the boys in the IAF, and the teams of commandoes probably already on the group in Iran. They, unlike Bonzo, know you don't have "serious, meaningful dialogue" with girl rapists and Holocaust deniers.
6  |  Claudia, Tampa, FL USA, Wednesday Sep 30, 2009
I certainly do not have a good opinion of American Jews after visiting Israel and seeing the difference between real Jews and AJ's! AJ's don't have to live with daily terror as do Israeli's and my experience showed me that the majority despise Israeli's. AJ's will support Obama until his Arabist policies destroy Israel and then wring their hands as they do historically and pronounce another Holocaust. They have lost their soul's to the accumulation of "stuff", and are shallow, selfish people. Christians care more about Israell than do AJ's do & not for conversion, but for God's directives.
7  |  APRPEH - USA, Wednesday Sep 30, 2009
Concerning your question #2 and so-called settlements - In the US, amongst Jews that I know everyone now knows that what Barry Hussein Obama calls a "settlement" includes Jerusalem. Imagery in the US of what a so-called settlement is usually involves "extremist orthodox" in tents on hill tops. The truth has been successfully passed along that Obama wants ALL the hill tops including Har HaBayis, G-d forbid. American Jews now seem to know that it is Obama who is the extremist when it comes to so-called settlements.
8  |  Joe smith, Wednesday Sep 30, 2009
Israel will out smart her enemies and will not be conned by Obama.
9  |  cares1996, Wednesday Sep 30, 2009
People,the longer you procrastinate the more other countries will interfere,weather for financial or ideology progression,does it make any difference if it takes some longer then others to come to the same conclusion,only if your content to let the threat get bigger for the sake of appeasement.This peace talk STUFF has been going on for years,now there`s not even a leader onthe other side of the table that will recognize your right to exist.I wouldn`t consider this PROGRESS but quite the contrary,so what to do?trust Netanyahu he appears to have your back.
10  |  David USA, Wednesday Sep 30, 2009
I don't understand this insane obsession with settllements, settlements, settlements. It seems like a drug addiction. There are now 300,000 Jews living in those settlements, exclusive of Jerusalem. When is enough enough ??? US Jews are brainwashed and are unthinkingly parroting the Jewish press and the so-called "spokesmen/women".
11  |  Navad_len AKA Leonard Eisenstein.South Florida, Wednesday Sep 30, 2009
Polls are Polls, just snap shots of the moment they are taken. To give credence to an AJC Poll is foolish. Ask a question three different ways, and you will get three different results. Paid mPollsters know this and deliver whatever the client wants. that is with this kind of poll. Election results are much more accurate especially taken by reliable pollsters. The point is The Anti Defemation polls give extremely differnt results. If you poll East Coast Jews of the Yuppie Generation you will get results that are disproportionately Anti Israel . cont. part two
12  |  Nevada_len, Wednesday Sep 30, 2009
This group of Jews have ridden the coat tails of the Greatest Generation, of which I am a proud member serving 3 1/2 years in WW II, and have not paid any price for the affluent life they were given by those who served and gave blood in the great War. They did not witness any Anti-semitism, oe the Holacaust, and Israel became sa thorn in there rush to assimilate. Foold that they are. Consequently, polling today gives differnt results then when the Seniors were alive. Little do they know that Israel will be their escape hatch when the axe falls. Do not think it can't happen.
13  |  Joel Weymouth, Harriburg, PA, Thursday Oct 01, 2009
Mr. Zahav: I can't figure out Jews with their dedication to the Democratic party and that party's hatred of the State of Israel. I believe the reason is that the Jews do not like the Evangelical Christians in the Republican party and afraid their ulterior motive is the conversion of Jews to Christianity: which it is not. So the Jews support Obama: despite his attendance of an anti-Israel rally honoring Rashid Khalid. The video is held by the LA Times. Before Obama leaves office i believe Israel will be attacked. He WILL NOT HELP ISRAEL & will keep refugees out: like FDR did in 1938.
14  |  Mike, Portland, USA, Thursday Oct 01, 2009
Israel is becoming more intensely rightwing over time. The Labor-Zionists are not likely to regain their old position. I know of no U.S. Jews that endorse the emerging Israeli consensus that it deserves the West Bank because of a supposed "deed" given at Mt. Zion. Most Jews still like Obama but are waiting to see how he ultimately succeeds with middle eastern disengagement & health care. As far as Israel having to live with a nuclear Iran. The only hope is worldwide nuclear disarmament inc. U.S., Russia, China, Israel, Iran, Pakistan, N. Korea, India, U.K. & France. NO EXCEPTIONS!
15  |  Halli Casser-Jayne Washington, DC, Thursday Oct 01, 2009
Whatever American Jews accept now is bound to change when they come to better understand Israel's vulnerability to Iran and the strategic significance of Judea and Samaria aka The West Bank in light of Iran's new power in the region. But no matter what you say, and how the polls read, you will not convince me that most American Jews aren't at least somewhat aback by President Obama's harsh tactics used against Israel, which is scary. And wondering how it is that Obama got so badly beaten by Bibi Netanyahu.
16  |  Amnon, the Great AMERICAN Southwest, Thursday Oct 01, 2009
David at 10, I don't even understand why you consider yourself to be both a Jew and an American. You parrot the Obamist line that Jews cannot even live on their OWN LAND when you reside - occupy - someone else's. Ever hear of the Mohawks, or the Seminole? How about the Cherokee, the Obijway, and the Sioux. You don't have a guilt trip over that, but God help you if a REAL Jew wants to live in their homeland. And as for being an American - well, you're occupying someone else's land, schmuck. Do us a favor. Go board the train both Obie and Soros have waiting for you. Or go to Gaza.
17  |  Amnon, the Great AMERICAN Southwest, Thursday Oct 01, 2009
Any so-called lox and bagel Jew like David who puts Obama and the Palestinians above his own people wishing to live on THEIR OWN LAND is nothing more than a pathetic self-hater. Period. End of story. He should move to Tehran and take all of his kind - NOT OURS - with him, i.e., the Soros, Emanuels, the Alan Graysons, the Wexlers, Weiners, and the Neuterei Karta. The Davids and the Soros of the world deserve to live amongst the Ahmedinejedads and Hamas - heck, they should offer their sorry souls for Shalit.
18  |  Boris, Brooklyn, NY, Thursday Oct 01, 2009
American Jewish leaders are in the tank for Obama no matter what. American Jews are in the tank for Israel and can see the difference.
19  |  molly-glasgow, Thursday Oct 01, 2009
If obama ever turned against the Sovereign State Of Israel ,he'll go the same way as the hamans and the pharoahs and the hitlers of this world. God watches over His Land that is only the size of a pea compared to all the islamic middle east.He Gave it to the Jews as an INHERITANCE FOREVER,so I wouldn't worry as since the Jewish people have come back to their land. God has supernaturally kept it against all the hordes that have tried to destroy them from being a nation [see psalm 83 ].and will continue to do so.That's the reason the people of God are hated.GOD BLESS ISRAEL.
20  |  george NY USA, Thursday Oct 01, 2009
american jews hate the right more than they love Israel. hollywood is full of jewish people yet they attack Israel and make excuses for the muslim extremists . They are spoiled and selfish and to me are not really jews ,but intellectual elitists. sad but true. they should wear a dollar sign on their chest instead of a jewish star.
21  |  Tod Zuckerman , San Francisco, Thursday Oct 01, 2009
Reply to Claudia (#6) : I am ashamed to say that - as respects many American Jews ( perhaps, a majority) - I agree with you.
22  |  wondering Canada, Thursday Oct 01, 2009
If you want to know what American Jews think, or what their opinion is, go ask some cleb in hollywood. For sure the Jews will agree with what ever is said. Then you would have an accurate survey.
23  |  YM, Thursday Oct 01, 2009
Mike, Israel would be crazy to give up her nukes, if she has any. Israel, like India and Pakistan, and unlike Iran, never signed the NPT, and so is not subject to the conditions of the treaty. I wonder what the benefit was/is of signing the treaty?
24  |  YM, Thursday Oct 01, 2009
One more thing: Israel has gone for years agreeing to the idea that the Palestinians have the right to a state in the WB&G, becuase they would have been happy to sign a treaty and live in peace with them. However, IT IS OUR LAND. THE ROMANS, REPRESENTING THE CHRISTIAN WORLD, STOLE IT FROM US. THE PALESTINIANS ARE SQUATTERS. MOST OF THEIR GRANDPARENTS/GREAT-GREAT GRANDPARENTS MOVED TO PALESTINE FROM OTHER PLACES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. Israel shouldn't make any concessions without getting something of equal value in return.
25  |  Mike Feldman Canada, Friday Oct 02, 2009
We Jews like to think we're different than everyone else. In many ways we are. We're not killing each other like Muslims. Christians are not in a state of anxiety over the problems of all other Christians. American Jews are simply not informed and therefore not interested in events in the Middle East. They want to get on with their lives as Americans or wherevers and simply don't want to be involved in Israel's day to day struggles. Human nature. Nothing more, nothing less. Those who care consider themselves better Jews. I am concerned about what I think and what I can do, but it would be frustrating to worry about what every other Jew should do or think. Let's not pass judgement.on ourselves, there are plenty of other thans to do so.
26  |  Mike, Friday Oct 02, 2009
To: YM. Nuclear weapons are a menace to all of mankind. Regardless of the NPT, the nations of the world need to work toward their collective abandonment. The U.S. has no more right to hold these weapons than Israel or Iran. The only way we can argue from a moral position is to be willing to dispose of them on all sides with open inspections at will. We owe this to ourselves, our children and their children. NEVER AGAIN means for ANY PEOPLE period. American and Israeli children are no less nor more precious than Iranian or Chinese children. They are all precious.
27  |  Court, Friday Oct 02, 2009
28  |  Courtney in Washington, Friday Oct 02, 2009
My sense is that the numerous American Jews of Democratic persuasion who supported Barak Obama will live to see him due to being weak willed in things of war allow Israel to be attacked by the likes of Iran. I don't agree with Gore Vidal on much, but he is right about Obama.
29  |  Dar-al-harb US of A, Friday Oct 02, 2009
I think the Israelis should settle all of the West Bank. Any Arabs that will accept Israeli citizenship and obey Israeli law should be allowed to stay and live in peace. PA and Hamas should be forcefully removed from this "greater" Israel . Arab leaders have never accepted the notion of a jewish nation. They rejected the Balfour Declaration in the beginning and continue seeking the destruction of Israel. Isreal has grown mostly due to the stupidity of Arab leaders starting wars with Israel causing the loss of Jerusalem, the Golan heights and the West bank.
30  |  Tod Zuckerman , San Francisco, Friday Oct 02, 2009
Jews who are concerned about Israel's survival have always been worried about Obama - Jews who during the campaign went ga-ga over Obama were (with some exceptions) not strong supporters of Israel. By and large, they were indifferent, or tepid in their support of Israel, or, in some cases, even hostile.
31  |  Edward, Friday Oct 02, 2009
Most US Jews have never been in Israel. Do not know the history of the Jews. Have no clue as to the geographic vulnerability of Israel. Were born after the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Do not see or understand the threat to Israel and the Jewish population world-wide. Like the German population prior to WWII, turn a blid eye toward OBama's past affiliations. In other words, they follow the Democrat position like lemmings and are a bunch of computer game playing, iPod deaf mall rats that gave up on reading and are spoon fed by the liberal media. A lot of education is needed.
32  |  Tom, US, Friday Oct 02, 2009
The jews have NEVER been concerned regarding Obama or any other US president so why all this bull ?
33  |  Jack, Friday Oct 02, 2009
Much has been claimed by Jewish people as to intelligence. Commonly, very little is shown. Jewish papers seem to universally float on bigotted innuendo, paranoia, deception ignorence and assiduously developed cults of egoism. Israel has nothing whatsoever to do with judaism other than the political machinations post WW11.Just a few reminders, judaism is distorted plagarism from ancient Egyptian sources which long preceeded it. Atheistic Khazars (origin740ad) assisted by the Reich created collaborator terrorist Israel which has no valid claims to palestine whatsoever or anywhere else.
34  |  Jack, Friday Oct 02, 2009
Additionally, the massive maintenance (ADL, CFR, B'nai Brith, Mossad etc) of the fraud of Israel is to flog us with guilt we do not deserve,;better it be applied to the western zionist organisms which dictated WW11 refugees be turned away "so greater political advantage will be gained". Israel's had no jewish PM's. Early comments were(Stern) "we have no interest in the fate of the old order (jews) later "one cow in Palestine is worth all the jews in Europe". Zionists handed over jews escaping to anywhere but Palestine. No wonder you live in fairyland, trying to ensure the secrets remain safe.
35  |  Jack, Friday Oct 02, 2009
Until you get yourselves sorted out Israel will continue to be the greatest obstacle to world peace. The 62 post WW11 years alone, of atrocities and assassinations against not only Arabs but German politicians and scores of thousands of assinated others has been surrounded by utter deception but as you deceive yourselves as to origin and outlook and "ownership" of the holy land and berate Muslims, you even assault jewish women praying at your wall. It's time you stood back and reviewed Israel's appalling history and why the West supports your abuses of mankind and lthe affairs of most nations.
36  |  DAN ROSENTHAL MONSEY NY, Friday Oct 02, 2009
Obama is the enemy of Israel. This being the case why should Netanyahu cave in to him? Obama will never be satisfied no matter how many suicidal concessions Israel makes. For more on this see WWW.AMERICANJEWSAGAINSTOBAMA.BLOGSPOT.COM which has a unique program to stop Obama and his Anti-Israel policies.
37  |  cares1996, Friday Oct 02, 2009
People,your continued efforts to persuade the PROGRESSIVES in the dem. party will in no way compare to the massive support that I`M SURE EXISTS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF ISLE,whats the problem,i think its folly at this point to say Israel has more to gain in future by partisanship,if its AMERICAN CONSERVATIVES THAT CONCERN YOU,ALLOW ME TO MAKE ONE VERIFYABLE FACT THAT OUR BIBLE STATES,THAT IS JEWS ARE THE CHOSEN ONES BY OUR GOD AND WE CHRISTIANS ARE TO HELP THE JEWISH PEOPLE AND THE STATE OF ISRAEL.THAT SAID WHEN IT COMES TO ANY JESUS OR GOD OR STARS OF DAVID ITS ALWAYS THE DEMS. WITH FIRE IN EYES
38  |  cares1996, Friday Oct 02, 2009
cont. i`m not saying that all dems. are bad people,there not,however they have taken on too many causes,many idea`s are good out of gate but without proper follow-up they become burdensome and dysfunctional,as far as causes ie unionized automaker and enviormentalist that seek to close down automakers,healthcare reform without tort refom because of trial lawyers,wars and anti-war voting block,green causes and coal&railroad unions the conflicts are numerous and serious,the reality is were in for some stormy weather,thank goodness were allies,so i can help if you listen objectively,i won`t deceive
39  |  Lonnie Faubion, Saturday Oct 03, 2009
Please watch this video. Cold this be the start of the next Holocost? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pV71-queH1o
40  |  Chris-Chicago, IL USA, Saturday Oct 03, 2009
Speaking as both an American and somebody who is of Jewish descent (I myself am Christian, but my mother and her family are Jewish) there is a striking and unfortunate difference between American Jews and Jews in Israel. American Jews, I am sad to say, seem to have very little to no personal interest, stake, or true understanding of the problems that face Israel now, and seem almost Anti-Israeli (my mother included). There is such a disconnection to their homeland that I am almost ashamed to know people like this. To Israel I say...I understand your hardships, and I support you 100%.
41  |  tel aviv, Saturday Oct 03, 2009
I think American Jews wanted to whitewash themselves from anti-black racism and Pro-Israel Zionism and used the elections to prove it in undeniable fashion :Voting for Obama killed for the jews two birds with one vote. Blacks in America do not suffer from such inferiority complexes: They voted 97% Obama to show that they were Black First. Which shows that the last elections were the most racially motivated ones, at least for Blacks and Jews, each for opposite reasons. Yours M.Ogilvy
42  |  Mike Feldman, Canada, Saturday Oct 03, 2009
Jack CONT than they are to European Christian populations and that hardly any intermarriage or conversion has occurred to affect the Jewish groups over the centuries.
43  |  Mike Feldman, Canada, Saturday Oct 03, 2009
Jack and friends Part 2 of 3. the results show that Ashkenazi Jews are more closely related to Yemenite Jews, Iraqi Jews, Sephardic Jews and Arabs, than they are to European Christian populations, and that harldy any intermarriage or conversion has occurred to affect Jewish groups over the centuries. East European Jewish ancestry originates substantially from ancient Judea and the same is true of most other modern Jewish populations with the exception of groups like Libyan Jews and Ethiopian Jews.
44  |  Ichabod South Africa, Saturday Oct 03, 2009
Warned you long ago about this. Surprise! He has the mind of a child and his solutions are simplistic.
45  |  Johnson USA, Sunday Oct 04, 2009
Wonder regarding Jews who vote against Jewish interests. Jews provided the financial and intellectual support that resulted in acceptance of blacks by the American population. The "good feelings" are not reciprocated with large segments of the black community engaged in denunuciation of Jews as for example Rev. Wright, the black bigot, who spews anti-American, anti-white, and anti-Semitic rhetoric, and who was Obama's avuncular friend and mentor for two decades, and who espoused destruction of Israel with a Muslim state substituted. This position by whites would never have been tolerated.
46  |  Ashleigh Zahr, Australia, Monday Nov 09, 2009
hey ya, shaun kingsley. your way to beautiful girl. thats why its would never work. you'd have me suicidal, sucidal when you say its ova.
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