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Monday Oct 12, 2009

Rosner's Domain: How many Palestinians in the territories?

Posted by SHMUEL ROSNER
Comments: 204
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According to this Pew study, there are 4.1 million Muslims in the Palestinian Territories.

The full report states that:

The Palestinian territories are home to about 4 million Muslims. In addition, Israel is home to roughly 1 million Muslims, slightly more than Qatar. Although Israel has a Muslim population similar in size to those of some western European countries, Muslims constitute a much larger portion (about 17%) of its population. By comparison, the United Kingdom is home to between 1 million and 2 million Muslims, about 3% of its total population.

Pew numbers are notably higher than most other estimations, for example, this one, from 2008:

The Palestinian population in the West Bank, Gaza and east Jerusalem has reached 3.76 million, up from 2.89 million a decade ago, according to census results released Saturday.

Why does it matter?

The more Palestinians live there, the harder it will be to govern them - and that is true both for Israel and a PA rule. The more Palestinians live there, the more the "demographic threat" will seem credible to Israelis - pushing them either toward negotiation, or toward unilateral steps aimed at separation of  the two populations (Israeli and Palestinian).

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1  |  Terry - Eilat, Israel, Monday Oct 12, 2009
Hey, Rosner, there's a third option which you just can't bring yourself to even say out loud. Can you guess what I'm talking about? Political correctness will be the death of us all & that's not just a figure of speech. This third option is certainly difficult to achieve, but, where there's a will, there's a way. Our problem is we don't have the will - but, you know what? Eventually, we will be forced into that option anyway, not by choice but by circumstance & necessity. And if we don't, they will do it to us.
2  |  Sharona Jerusalem Israel, Monday Oct 12, 2009
The terrorities are NOT occupied, they are disputed. The PEW figures are ridiculously inflated. Just drive around the area and you will see hundreds of deserted buildings. These are all absurd lies. The Palis count everyone living abroad as being residents here. Don't believe a word of it. Come and see for yourself.
3  |  andy-london, Monday Oct 12, 2009
israel is a tiny nation {a sliver on the map compared to the islamic nations round about it]so imagine how small it would be if it went back to pre 67' borders,when RIGHT NOW 70% of the country's population is sandwiched between the green line and the sea.Why dont those surrounding muslim nations take the palistinians into their countries.They could give them the homes they stole from the jews and that would settle [WELL WE CAN PRETEND]the matter.The truth is when do you stop feeding a crocodile?
4  |  Maya, NY, NY, Monday Oct 12, 2009
Ridiculous nonsense published by JPost. There are only about 2.7m Arabs in Judea, Samaria and Gaza (excluding Jerusalem) - see http://yoramettinger.newsnet.co.il/Front/NewsNet/reports.asp?reportId=268487 Yes, this is important so stop disseminating harmful nonsense.
5  |  John, Monday Oct 12, 2009
Multiculturalism has been the downfall of every civilization in our recorded history. The idea is admirable but cannot work when you have so much competition with religion, ideals, etc............................Here in the USA we have many 'home owners associations' that make you sign an agreement to abide by their rules with things like what you can and can't do, color of you exterior, maintaining your houses exterior, what can;t be placed on the exterior, what time you can't make noise and if you don't abide by the agreed rules, you are expelled. All countries should expel malcontents.
6  |  Mike Feldman, Canada, Monday Oct 12, 2009
If the Palestinians become harder to govern through population growth, what would be the value of any negotiated agreement? Who would it represent? How to "unilaterally" separate? Build a wall around Israel? These are not alternatives, they're just reality checks bases on unreliable numbers.
7  |  Joseph Ramallah, Monday Oct 12, 2009
Palestinians are not only Muslim
8  |  harold london, Monday Oct 12, 2009
Nice comment Maya. thanks. Rosner just turns out "facts" which back his idealogical position
9  |  David, Monday Oct 12, 2009
"According to this Pew study" which you must know is completely unreliable and based upon the inaccurate and intentionally inflated Palestinian figures. To post the numbers without any comment/criticism is irresponsible journalism. It reduces what could have been an interesting and informative article to more useless drivel.
10  |  Bill Collins, Spokane, Monday Oct 12, 2009
If Israel is forced to go to the 67 borders, then kick the arabs out of Israel proper. Let the international community suck on that one! P.S. sorry for the vulgarity, but then I don't think the pun would be understood. I'm just making a point of how difficult if will be for Israelis to have to leave the settlements. Where do they go? And who takes care of them? Livni--not a chance! She only loves herself! Israeli politics are just a means for her to destroy the state!!! I'm sure she's probably out singing "God bless Hitler!" But then with Obama in power, maybe she can bless him too?
11  |  David, London, Monday Oct 12, 2009
The Arabs were living there before the area was conquered in 67. If you want the land, you also take the people. The extreme rightists can pretend that 'Judea and Samaria' are the same as anywhere else in Israel, but that's something no Israeli government has said, not even this one. It will never be annexed, as to do so would bring with it the Palestinians. Israel can't get rid of them, if it doesn't want them it knows the only solution - two states. Otherwise, it needs to start thinking - now - how it is going to assimilate several million discontented Palestinians.
12  |  Squall, France, Monday Oct 12, 2009
An american-isreali research teams found that the PA inflated their their numbers by at least 1 millions. So they are neither 4.1 ou 3.7M "palestinians" but less than 3M. 1/ arabs living between the barier and the green line are counted twice --> about 250'000 in east jerusalem alone 2/ palestinians living abroad are still counted as west bank residents --> as much as 500'000 have emigrated since 1967 (christians legally to the Americas, muslims illegally to Jordan and Israel). This was recognized by a PA minister who believe he should count "anyone who has a PA ID card and can return"...
13  |  Daran, UK, Monday Oct 12, 2009
Why can't Terry bring himself to say forced explusions (or worse). What name would Terry have the IDF give this operation "pogrom" prehaps, or maybe Terry does'nt want to dirty the hands of the IDF with this and requires "special groups" to carry it out. Never mind that such actions are expressly against Ben Gurion's declaration of the state of Israel. Never mind the reactions of Israel's allies and the rest of the world. Never mind the lives lost in IDF such an act would cost.Never mind all that, it's just wrong.
14  |  George, Ramallah, Monday Oct 12, 2009
"How many Palestinians in the territories?" is not the correct question. It should be "How many Muslims in the territories." There are Christians here too, like me. We don't say "How many Israelis are in Israel" and then count only the Jews.
15  |  Hillel, Monday Oct 12, 2009
In today's Wall Street Journal, R. James Woolsey, former directory of the CIA under Clinton, quoted the total population of the West Bank and Gaza put together as 2.5 million. The Arabs living in Jerusalem are already counted in Israel's own population numbers so they don't need to be counted again. The PEW numbers are a joke. They are just regurgitating the propaganda put out by the PA and the Israeli left. You can read the WSJ article for free here: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704471504574446931027154794.html?mod=rss_opinion_main
16  |  Chaim - Israel, Monday Oct 12, 2009
There are no "Palestinians" in Judea and Samaria. Or anywhere else for that matter. There never was a state called "Palestine". Nor were there ever "Palestinians". There are approximately 2.7 million Arabs in Judea and Samaria. What do we do about the situation? The answer is simple. We do not vacate our tiny Homeland. We pay Arabs to leave as most of them have been tolling pollsters they wish to. It is win/win for everyone. For Israel, compensating Arabs to leave is a one time investment with permanent returns.
17  |  Chaim - Israel, Monday Oct 12, 2009
There are no "Palestinians" in Judea and Samaria. Or anywhere else for that matter. There never was a state called "Palestine". Nor were there ever "Palestinians". There are approximately 2.7 million Arabs in Judea and Samaria. What do we do about the situation? The answer is simple. We do not vacate our tiny Homeland. We pay Arabs to leave as most of them have been tolling pollsters they wish to. It is win/win for everyone. For Israel, compensating Arabs to leave is a one time investment with permanent returns.
18  |  Shel Zahav, Monday Oct 12, 2009
Question: How many Palestinians live in the territories? Answer: None. There is no such thing as a Palestinian Arab. That is a second-half 20th Century invention. In fact, the original "naqba" occurred in the 1920s when the Arabs who had recently come to this area (Israel) proclaimed to the British Mandatory Government, "We are not Palestinians, we are Southern Syrian Arabs." Some of them are. Many are Egyptians and Algerians. The Turks brought them to the region to work in the late 19th Century. A great many are Iraqi.
19  |  James, NY, Monday Oct 12, 2009
There is something wrong with the numbers: the integer parts: 3 = 2+1, and .89 and .76 are way too similar: 9 = 8+1 and 7 = 6+1, including various rotations. What is the chance of one carefully picking these numbers without doing any census?
20  |  Meir, Toronto, Monday Oct 12, 2009
Go to the websites of the major Palestinian towns/cities (excluding Jerusalem) ie. Hebron, Ramallah, Jenin, Tulkarm etc. There are about 9 major urban areas. Add up their reported populations. Be generous and add for their'suburbs'. Then double that to account for the rural areas which is not where most Pals live. You will be lucky to come up with more than 1.5million in the West Bank. Actually far less.
21  |  Iche Behr, Los Angeles, Tuesday Oct 13, 2009
Both reports are in error because One Milion Gaza Arabs are out of the state of Israel period! Hence the Gaza Arabs are not a threat to Israel's demography!
22  |  Iche Behr, Los Angeles, Tuesday Oct 13, 2009
Both reports are in error because One Milion Gaza Arabs are out of the state of Israel period! Hence the Gaza Arabs are not a threat to Israel's demography! Do the Gaza Arabs have the power to vote in Israeli elections?
23  |  Arthur Short, Tuesday Oct 13, 2009
The figures you qoute for the number of Muslims in the UK 1 - 2 million are stats based on the 2001 figures put out by the Office for National Statistics. it was based on a five year study tht preceeded it. It is commonly accepted now, that there are now between 3 - 4 million living in the UK. (Islam is the second largest religion ).
24  |  cyril canada, Tuesday Oct 13, 2009
I would say the number is vastly inflated because of social payments and rations palestinians are getting.Number of children per family may be inflated,number of old people may be inflated.Every social worker has to justify his/her job by number of people he/she cares for.BTW who did the census?And the politics of millions of "refugees" must not be forgotten.
25  |  cyril canada, Tuesday Oct 13, 2009
I would say the number is vastly inflated because of social payments and rations palestinians are getting.Number of children per family may be inflated,number of old people may be inflated.Every social worker has to justify his/her job by number of people he/she cares for.BTW who did the census?And the politics of millions of "refugees" must not be forgotten.
26  |  Marie Antoinette Demonet, Tuesday Oct 13, 2009
What is all this bruhaha for. Why don't we just take the same road as every other nation in the world . Israel was attacked a few times by all Arab armies Israel won each time and gained land.Territory comes with victory. Israel should tell the world including the US these simple few words US Give back to the Mexicans what you took from them. Occypied territories? US get out of South Korea. US get out of Germany . US get out of evey country you are still hanging on to .
27  |  Daniel, London, Tuesday Oct 13, 2009
We are going around in circles; the dibook is wreaking gleeful havoc upon our capacity to think clearly and with concience. How many walls may we build, with how much paranoia will we react to yet another speculative demographic report. Hashem didnt bestow us with Eretz Yisrael to make a mockery of her with fences and mines carving her to pieces. I think today you must be braver to have a tolerent outlook. Our minds are rotting and giving up, closing in on themselves. Did not Avraham say to Lot and his troublesome sheperds, if you go right, ill go left?
28  |  palestinian in dc, Tuesday Oct 13, 2009
Israel only has 3 options remaining and 2 of them benefit Palestinians more. The third is the wisest. Option 1: 2 totally separate states, Palestine and Israel. Problem is that after 20 years, Palestinians within soveriegn Israel (i.e. 1967 borders) will become majority Israeli citizens. Option 2: Israel annexes west bank, gaza strip, and east jerusalem, therefore all palestinians between the river and the sea become israeli citizens. Palestinians will have majority in less than 5 years. Option 3: Create a truly democratic & free single state between river and sea for all 3 religions.
29  |  Smadar, Tuesday Oct 13, 2009
Aside from the demographic issue, there was every intention for both peoples to have their own states since the inception of the modern State of Israel in 1948. I believe that once there's clarification as to the core issues and established compromises, then the majority on both sides would accept. The Olmert administration was pretty close negotiating with President Abbas.
30  |  Saqib from Australia, Tuesday Oct 13, 2009
Sharona #2 How are the territories disputed? What was their status prior or the 1967 unilateral action by Israel? This has always been Muslim Land, for the last 1000+ years and it shall return to the Muslims once again. And Andy #3, what an absurd and preposterous proposition, you IQ must b the same as you age! If you in the UK get occupied by someone like Israel, gets knocked out of your homes, your women, children & elders killed and raped. 800,000 of you made refugees & turned into destitutes & then expected to disappear into surrounding christian western europe, cuz there's so much land!
31  |  Australia, Tuesday Oct 13, 2009
It is incredible to think that the Jews were subject to a Holocaust and now they would like to inflict the same ‘ethnic cleansing’ (illegal house evictions, amongst many other violations) on Muslims and arabs within Israel, and Palestinians (illegal settlements/occupation amongst many other violations) in the West Bank. The abused become the abusers. The world is watching you Israel.
32  |  Terry - Eilat, Israel, Tuesday Oct 13, 2009
#13 Daran. I have no problem saying ''transfer'' - that's Rosner's problem. You want to calll it ''forced expulsion'' - that's fine with me too. Call it what you will, that's the only real option we have. By the way, all the comments on the exaggerated population statistics are probably correct. The statistics are manipulated for political reasons.