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Monday Dec 01, 2008

Rosner's Domain: Dialogue - yes; A breakthrough? - probably not

Posted by SHMUEL ROSNER
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David Ignatius has been one of the most consistent supporters of dialogue with Iran. In 2006, he wrote:

There's no guarantee that a policy of engagement will work. The Iranian regime’s desire to acquire nuclear weapons may be so unyielding that Tehran and Washington will remain on a collision course. But America and its allies will be in a stronger position for responding to Iranian calls for dialogue. Openness isn’t a concession by America, it’s a strategic weapon.

But Sunday he revealed how skeptical he really is. Yes - he still wants dialogue, but the "there's no guarantee" that it could work has been changed to something even less hopeful:

It's easy to criticize the Bush record on Iran. But anyone who thinks it will be easy for Obama to make a breakthrough hasn't been paying attention. Iran moves closer every day to becoming a nuclear-weapons power. It views America as an aggressive adversary that wants regime change, no matter what Washington says. Dialogue is worth a try, but Obama and his advisers should start thinking about what they will do if negotiations fail.

Ignatius offers a fair criticism of the Bush Administration for its "double failure on Iran":

Administration hard-liners haven't checked Tehran's drive to acquire nuclear-weapons technology, and moderates haven't engaged Iran in negotiation and dialogue.

But other than the call for dialogue and his well-established stance against aggressive action - "Military action would be irrational for both sides," Ignatius doesn't offer much. It is hard to tell what he'd like Obama to do. And even more importantly - his article skips the most relevant question: what price should the U.S. be willing to pay in order to stop Iran from cruising toward its goal of nuclear weaponry? So far, the answer has been "no price": The U.S. is willing to try international sanctions and dialogue. Ignatius's skepticism is well-founded: Defeating a determined rival with such approaches is not likely to happen.

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Comments: Post your own comment
1  |  St. Sobolovski, USA, Tuesday Dec 02, 2008
You cannot dialog with a terrorist (leader of Iran) and expect to get results. Since endless talking won't work, try something else.
2  |  American, Tuesday Dec 02, 2008
The carrot has to be big. The dialogue has to be perceived as on an equal level. The consequences of permanent sanctions with teeth by a united front on a long term basis has to be laid out inthe strongest terms. Russia is going to have to meet us part way. It doesn't sound likely but I will hold on to hope and I am sure other options in case of failure are being quietly discussed. There is no nice solution to this problem. Just the better of two bad choices. I will take a level headed President and an experienced team over open military threats that only heighten the danger.
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