Rosner's Domain: 10 short political notes

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Ten short political notes:

1.Did she just say "horrible", "awful", "terrible" about the Obama administration? Or maybe not? I think she really did, and Minister Livnat was smart enough to "clarify" rather than "deny" the reports quoting her comments (she says now that what she really meant is "strict"). So - here's a nagging thought: Will such impolite, insulting, undiplomatic, fullish remarks make Livnat a viable candidate to be Israel's next Foreign Minister?

2. And sad truth must be told: many Israelis, maybe even most of them, will find her remarks unwise, but not incorrect (just to make sure: I'm not endorsing such belief, just describing the troubling reality).

3. "Attorney General Menachem Mazuz told the security cabinet Wednesday ahead of a vote on the decision that there is no real way to enforce the freeze due to a lack of manpower". My American friends tell me: implementation is the key, and the US intends to be much more thorough when it comes to validating that it is "freeze" and not "free".

4. Palestinians can say whatever they want, but the "freeze" is something they "got" without the need to "give" much.

5. Want proof? Shimon Shiffer is the veteran Diplomatic correspondent for Israel's largest daily, Yediot. Here's what he wrote: For years, Netanyahu used to boast of a formula premised on the notion of "if they give something, they'll get something in return; if they don't give a thing, they won’t get a thing." Now, in his second term in office, Netanyahu keeps on giving, without getting proper compensation.

6. For the grimly-serious reader: two articles on how "we" (whatever that means) lost Turkey. Danforth here, Crooke here.

7. Some loyal readers were very unhappy with the my concomments concerning Obama's approval ratings among independents. A couple of them suggested that I take a look at Gallup (I did, as you can probably imagine). I suggest all doubters read the estimable Charles Franklin:

So the point is simple: Claims of abandonment of Obama by independents (or lib-Dems or con-Dems) are substantially exaggerated over the past three months. Significant decline from May through August, yes indeed among Inds and Reps, but that trend halted in August.

And since I'm fair and balanced, here's a link to Rasmussen and Schoen (but I must say, Franklin's analysis seems more convincing):

Unless Mr. Obama changes his approach and starts governing in a more fiscally conservative, bipartisan manner, the independents that provided his margin of victory in 2008 and gave the Democrats control of Congress will likely swing back to the Republicans, putting Democratic control of Congress in real jeopardy.

8. My friend Yossi has this strange theory:

Some even speculate that Netanyahu, like Sharon, is planning a far-reaching political move that will enable him, buoyed by wide public support, to break Likud up once again on the eve on the next elections and establish the new Likud with his partner Ehud Barak. The latter, at least, would be glad to leave his ailing party with its huge debts behind and join Bibi for another political upheaval - as Sharon and Peres did in forming Kadima. 

9. In Abbas land, there's no change: The Palestinian president has said that he plans to stay in office until the next election and will be ready to hold the vote as soon as consensus is reached with rival faction Hamas. Namely - forever?

10. And here's one more question to think about over the weekend: Could Scotland be the next Slovakia?