Winds of War - Israel and Lebanon
The Israeli government has recently threatened that should Hizbullah join Beirut's incoming government, it would respond to any attack launched by Hizbullah by targeting Lebanon itself. Israel stated that if Hizbullah attacked any Israeli anywhere it was prepared to attack targets on Lebanese soil. Hizbullah officials stated in response that the organization was even stronger today than at the beginning of the Second Lebanon War in 2006, and that its armed wing was well prepared for any possible confrontation with Israel. The officials also stated that Israel would not dare start a new war with Lebanon since the United States would not support such a move at the current time. Although both sides claim that there are no winds of war in the north, they seem to be acting just as they did before the 2006 war. Both continue to prepare for the next battle while claiming that nothing serious is going on. Netanyahu's Conditions
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently stated that Israel would accept the idea of an Israel-Palestinian peace only after the Palestinians agreed to five conditions. His conditions are: recognition of Israel as a Jewish state, Palestinian agreement that a peace treaty ends all claims against Israel, no Palestinian refugees are to be allowed to return to Israeli territory, a demilitarized Palestinian state, and an international recognition of the demilitarization. Besides these, Israeli sources claimed Netanyahu had refused a Palestinian demand to renew the negotiations. Netanyahu stated clearly in the Knesset that the separation wall would never be removed or changed. According to him, it prevented Palestinian attacks and assured the security of Israel. Netanyahu's conditions represent a new approach to directing the conflict with the Palestinians. They will be almost impossible to agree to as they contradict demands which the Palestinians consider to be the heart of the conflict. Not only that, but Netanyahu also makes these demands at a time when Israel refuses to take even the simplest step to improve the peace process. The Israeli government stated clearly that building settlements in east Jerusalem is not illegal and does not contravene any law since east Jerusalem is considered a part of the united Jerusalem, the capital of Israel. So what Netanyahu is offering is a chance for the Palestinians to forget about east Jerusalem as their capital, accept the "logic" and agree to the existence of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, completely ignore the right of millions of Palestinian refugees who are living in bad conditions and camps after being kicked of their houses, immediately agree to recognize Israel as a Jewish state, forgive all the war criminals and agree to not pursue any claim against them, and establish a state which will be a backyard for Israel, which can be entered whenever the latter wants. Well this sounds like an attractive offer in the eyes of the Israeli leadership, and in the future the Palestinians will be blamed for not accepting it, exactly as Olmert and Barak blamed Arafat and Abu Mazen for not agreeing to their similar offers, which only differed in the way they were said or written. The coming of the third intifada?
Since its establishment, the State of Israel has largely depended on its security forces and intelligence agencies to ensure its national security. Today, Israel believes that diminished Palestinian attacks is a result of the successful efforts of its security and intelligence forces. Israel began building its intelligence and security forces even before the declaration of the state of 1948. Jews in Palestine did not trust the Arabs who lived among them, and often offered bribes to the Arab population in exchange for information about Arab plans in Palestine. The Israelis also went about recruiting inside the Arab world, across the Middle East, and around the world. Reconsidering the Middle East
Many people wonder why Israel and the Arab world have not reached an
agreement to end the historical conflict between them. Neither side has
yet to find a solution that meets its needs. It also seems that none of
the leaders in the region over time, wanted to take responsibility for
any kind of compromise reached. Is Israel starting to feel US pressure?
Last week, Israel started to feel the pressure from the US as plans for a new peace initiative proposed by Obama were said to be in the works. Obama was said to deliver the contents of the plan on his visit to Cairo next week, but recent reports have suggested that his speech will focus on American ties with the Muslim world and not on the new peace plan which is rumored to refer to east Jerusalem as the future capital of an independent Palestinian State. Since then, Israeli politicians have not stopped talking of the importance of getting Israel out of this situation in any way, including the removal of Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Is it real silence..or silence before a real storm?
The relative quiet we've seen so far with regards to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict seems to be coming to an end. The new Israeli government has been formed and the international community wants to see real progress in the negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians. During his recent visit to Israel and the Palestinian territories, US Middle East envoy George Mitchell said that the two state solution is the only way to end the conflict. Avigdor Lieberman, the new Israeli foreign minister, stated in the presence of Mitchell that Israel will work to improve the Palestinian economy. The latter responded by saying that the Israeli plan to improve the Palestinian economy must be a part of a complete plan to end the conflict by having two states for the two peoples. In a meeting held between White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel and Jewish leaders in the United States, Rahm stated clearly that the interest of the White House is to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in a period of four years with a result that includes two states; one Israeli and one Palestinian. New hope or lost faith?
On Saturday, Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salaam Fayad declared his resignation, a move which Palestinian analysts said was aimed at encouraging the Fatah-Hamas reconciliation talks. Fayad is considered an important man for the Palestinian Authority; he is trusted by the US and the international community since he is not affiliated with either Fatah or Hamas. There is some fear among Palestinians that his departure could interfere with the transfer of financial aid pledged to the rebuilding of the Gaza Strip. A policy change strikes the Middle East
Following several key steps made by the new American administration, it seems the US is changing its approach to the Middle East. Last week, Senator John Kerry visited Gaza and met with Syrian President Bashar Assad and Iranian-American talks are still unclear but seem to be active behind the scenes. President Barack Obama, Middle East envoy George Mitchell, and other American officials are trying for a new strategy and their challenge involves breaking through the Iranian alliance and trying to negotiate with each element separately. Obama is working on removing all the economic sanctions against Syria because of its ties with Iran and Hizbullah as he recognizes that the Syrians may play an important role in affecting the conflicts in the Middle East through their relations with Lebanon and Hamas. Sen. Kerry stated that he will ask President Assad to invest in changing the situation by applying pressure on Hizbullah and other such elements in the region. The real situation in the Middle East
[Likud leader Binyamin]Netanyahu stated yesterday that moderate Palestinians should be strengthened and radicals should be weakened. According to him, under the curent circumstances, the possibility of holding negotiations for a two-state solution is next nothing. Netanyahu stated again that strengthening the Palestinian economy is how he will deal with the Israeli - Palestinian conflict. The brothers' war
Recently, many efforts were made by Arab countries to reach a reconciliation agreement between Fatah and Hamas. Since the Hamas coup in Gaza in 2007, the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah has considered Hamas' rule in Gaza illegal. Hamas currently considers PA President Mahmoud Abbas' government illegal because, according to the Palestinian premier law, his presidential period has expired. Both movements have been attacking each other since the division started about two years ago. Fatah claims that Hamas is trying to involve Iran and Syria in the Palestinian decision and destiny and Hamas claims that Fatah has become a 'surrendering' movement that works according to Israeli and American demands. |
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