Is it real silence..or silence before a real storm?

The relative quiet we've seen so far with regards to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict seems to be coming to an end. The new Israeli government has been formed and the international community wants to see real progress in the negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

During his recent visit to Israel and the Palestinian territories, US Middle East envoy George Mitchell said that the two state solution is the only way to end the conflict. Avigdor Lieberman, the new Israeli foreign minister, stated in the presence of Mitchell that Israel will work to improve the Palestinian economy. The latter responded by saying that the Israeli plan to improve the Palestinian economy must be a part of a complete plan to end the conflict by having two states for the two peoples. 

In a meeting held between White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel and Jewish leaders in the United States, Rahm stated clearly that the interest of the White House is to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in a period of four years with a result that includes two states; one Israeli and one Palestinian.

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A policy change strikes the Middle East

Following several key steps made by the new American administration, it seems the US is changing its approach to the Middle East. Last week, Senator John Kerry visited Gaza and met with Syrian President Bashar Assad and Iranian-American talks are still unclear but seem to be active behind the scenes. President Barack Obama, Middle East envoy George Mitchell, and other American officials are trying for a new strategy and their challenge involves breaking through the Iranian alliance and trying to negotiate with each element separately.

Obama is working on removing all the economic sanctions against Syria because of its ties with Iran and Hizbullah as he recognizes that the Syrians may play an important role in affecting the conflicts in the Middle East through their relations with Lebanon and Hamas. Sen. Kerry stated that he will ask President Assad to invest in changing the situation by applying pressure on Hizbullah and other such elements in the region.

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The real situation in the Middle East

[Likud leader Binyamin]Netanyahu stated yesterday that moderate Palestinians should be strengthened and radicals should be weakened. According to him, under the curent circumstances, the possibility of holding negotiations for a two-state solution is next nothing. Netanyahu stated again that strengthening the Palestinian economy is how he will deal  with the Israeli - Palestinian conflict. 
 
Livni believes that Israel must give up land to remain Jewish and democratic. She adds that no Palestinian refugees should be allowed to return to their lands in Israel because their real national aspirations exist somewhere else; the Palestinian territories. This is not the first time Livni speaks of the importance of keeping Israel a Jewish state.

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Be loyal to yourself before being loyal to your cued ideas

Ever since I started writing political pieces about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and related subjects, I've felt that I was received by people in many different ways; some considered me an extremist, others considered me a moderate. To be honest, I was sometimes affected by readers' comments and opinions about my analyses and in discussions about the political situation in the Middle East.
 
The first time I decided to write about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, I convinced myself to try to look at the situation from a place located in the middle. This can be seen in my writings; I wrote about the mistakes that were made by the Palestinians in their internal situation, and I also wrote moderately and honestly - with evidence - about Israeli policy towards the Palestinians. I was not surprised when I was criticized by some of my Palestinian people, and a lot of the Israeli people. Sometimes I thought of changing the language I used depending on the readers I was addressing. Even then, I was called a hypocrite by some Israeli readers who would say that I was trying to show the good face, one that hides a different reality behind it.

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The international Middle East

Fatah and Hamas do not seem to agree on ending the Palestinian division. PA President Mahmoud Abbas stated last week that there would be no negotiations with Hamas before the organization recognizes that the Palestinian Liberation Organization is the only representative of the Palestinian people.

Fatah's spokesman and chief negotiator, Ahmed Qurei stated that Fatah's sixth public conference will be held on March 21st. This conference is meant to gather all of Fatah's leaders from the Palestinian territories and the Arab world to discuss improvements and changes to Fatah's leadership including replacing the current ones. The conference has not been held in more than 20 years and not convening it was one of the reasons parties like Hamas criticized Fatah.

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The brothers' war

Recently, many efforts were made by Arab countries to reach a reconciliation agreement between Fatah and Hamas. Since the Hamas coup in Gaza in 2007, the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah has considered Hamas' rule in Gaza illegal. Hamas currently considers PA President Mahmoud Abbas' government illegal because, according to the Palestinian premier law, his presidential period has expired.

Both movements have been attacking each other since the division started about two years ago. Fatah claims that Hamas is trying to involve Iran and Syria in the Palestinian decision and destiny and Hamas claims that Fatah has become a 'surrendering' movement that works according to Israeli and American demands.

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Answers to readers' questions

Following last week's invitation to submit your questions about anything related to Israel-Palestinian relations to our Palestinian blogger Ziad Khalil Abu Zayyad who writes on BlogCentral's The Other View, Ziad has patiently answered every question sent in. The exchange is below.

Dear Readers

I want to make several points clear. First of all I do not represent Hamas nor anyone else. I have answered you based on what I hear in the Palestinian community and people's reactions to the conflict. Some answers will be also based on what Palestinians consider beliefs. Thank you for your questions; it was interesting.

Ziad

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1.  Is there any indication that talking to Hamas would make it stick to its beliefs less than it has up until now, as you claim in your post The price of political stubbornness? Is there any reason to believe that its continuous glorification of killing is just a failure of communication? Like it or not, Hamas' terror is itself a form of communication. It is they who have chosen the form of "dialogue" -- a dialogue of raw force -- that Israel has had to respond to in Gaza.

Fed Up, Barcelona

Answer: The reason I wrote in that post that Israel has to change its way of communicating with Hamas was to try and show an alternative way of thinking instead of launching a war which, in the end, brought no benefits for Israel nor for the Palestinians.

There is reason to believe that Hamas continued to fight and launch missiles because of a failure of communication between it and the West. The Palestinian Liberation Organization held beliefs that invited the Palestinians to fight Israel until the last inch of the land of Palestine is liberated but this changed after signing the Oslo agreement. It shows us that even a system built on religious beliefs that convinces its followers that it is their duty to fight in the name of God, can be changed. The United States, Israel, and the West in general refused to communicate with Hamas because they considered it an organization that is similar to any other terrorist organization in the world. In the eyes of the Arab world, Hamas differs from Bin Laden and al-Qaida since Arabs in general and Palestinians in particular consider it a movement that fights in a Holy land that has been occupied. Therefore any lack of communication with Hamas or a siege around it does not weaken it but indeed makes it more popular, more justified in the eyes of the Arabs, and stronger within the Palestinian community.

* * *

2. Hamas defines its identity as the "Islamic Resistance Movement". Its charter says very clearly that they believe negotiations are worth nothing, that only "jihad" will bring the Palestinians what they want. And what does Hamas want when it refers to the residents of Sderot as "settlers" and refuses to accept Israel's right to exist? We can hardly dismiss Hamas rhetoric, but at the same time take them serious as negotiation partners.

Petra, Bat Yam

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Obama's challenges in the Middle East

The future of any kind of achievement in the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians is hazy. Although the new American administration supports the two state solution, it seems unrealistic and unattainable in the current conditions.

President Obama's policies and what seems to be different, more realistic approaches to the Middle East will have to satisfy Israel, the Arab allies of America, and the moderate Palestinian leadership. So far, American considerations in the region have translated into the following; there are suggestions with regards to improving the economic situation is the West Bank instead of talking directly about a two-state solution, which is in line with what Israel's current leading candidate for the premiership Binyamin Netanyahu advocates. Netanyahu also thinks that at the moment, there is no basis for discussions or negotiations on a future Palestine. This has an effect on the Palestinian side in that it becomes more convinced that supporting a Palestinian party like Hamas which holds a similar approach - no negotiations - is in its best interest.

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The war is over, now what?

The main goal of the Israeli operation in Gaza was not to weaken Hamas but to try and affect Palestinian public opinion since it is the Gazan population that elected Hamas and supports its agenda.

Although the Israeli government claimed victory in this war, nothing has changed in reality; Hamas still has power, the tunnels are being re-built as we speak, and the people are still supporting it, not only in Gaza but also in the West Bank and in the Arab world.

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War achievements...or illusions

Israel's decision to go to war in Gaza should be analyzed in order to understand the real reasoning behind it and to examine what results following the war were promised to the Israeli public. The Israeli leadership stated at the beginning of the war that it was acting to protect its citizens from the Kassams and Grad missiles launched by Hamas and other factions on the cities in the Gaza periphery. 
 
Preparations to convince the public that this war was important and would bring a long period of calm along the Gaza-Israel border included comparing Hamas with Hizbullah and promising to make the south as silent as the north. This enabled a strong wave of patriotism to wash over Israelis who then supported this war.

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