The Syrian illusion revisited

Here are two excellent recent pieces by Emile Hokayem and Jonathan Spyer on the stale old illusion of a Syrian "peace track," and assessing the whole enterprise of engagement with Syria more generally.

Spyer explains why the so-called "Syria track" - that most absurd leftover from the delusional 1990s "peace process" - will, once again, lead nowhere. There are structural reasons, as I've argued repeatedly here and elsewhere, why this is so, and they have to do with the regional system overall and Syria's position as a second tier regional actor (its over-inflated self-image and role-conception notwithstanding) with no other assets to remain relevant save for its sponsorship of violence and alliance with other violent actors:

Why would such talks almost certainly fail? The formula for success in negotiations between Israel and Syria is no longer the '90s recipe of land for peace. A breakthrough in Jerusalem-Damascus negotiations would be predicated on the basis of 'land for strategic realignment.'

That is, Syria would be expected to abandon its regional alliance with Iran in return for Israeli territorial concessions on the Golan Heights.

Damascus, however, has made abundantly clear that such a realignment is not on the table. The reasons are fairly obvious. Syria's current stance of alliance with Iran gives the Damascus regime most of what it needs. Syria is seen as a vital part of any regional diplomatic process, because of its ability to spoil progress through its alignment with radical forces."

The 30-year old (and counting) illusion of distancing Syria from Iran and countering Iranian influence in Iraq is the driver behind Saudi Arabia's recent and ridiculously inept political moves. Both Spyer and Hokayem correctly identify the shared interest (which, ironically, is also shared by Iran!) in undermining Nouri al-Maliki in Iraq, something that I've written about at the time of the August bombings in Iraq, responsibility for which Iraq has, correctly in my view, laid at Syria's doorstep. General Odierno also agrees with the Iraqi accusation.

The French position is even more pitiful. France is a secondary world power that wishes to carve a "role" for itself in ME affairs and its only avenue to do so is through the so-called "peace process," and more specifically (by default) through Syria. How apt, therefore, for a secondary power to place its bets on a secondary regional actor in a process that will lead nowhere.

Reactions from the Lebanese blogosphere

Following Lebanon's pro-majority win, the Lebanese blogosphere, and other Lebanese media outlets, have been hoppin'. Here are some interesting reactions:

On The Ouwet Front, writers posted notes of congratulations:

Congratulations my friends.

GOD BLESS THE FREE LEBANESE PEOPLE

10452KM2 ALWAYS

and

Mabrouk lal Sheikh Nadim Bashir Gemayel!
Mabrouk la Nayla Gebran Tueni!

and posted pictures of Beirut celebrations:

'I'm leaving and I'm not coming back'

A World Association of Newspapers Interview with Mohamad Ali Al-Abdallah, Blogger, Syria. Other interviews, editorials and photographs exposing the harassment, threats and censorship journalists face worldwide, can be seen on this page.

The lack of press freedom in Syria has defined the life of Mohamad Ali Al-Abdallah. He has been detained, his brother is serving a five-year sentence in a secret location, and his father is finishing a one-year prison term. He recently fled Syria and received refugee status in the United States. Al-Abdallah is an outspoken advocate for human rights through his widely followed blog, "I'm leaving, and I'm not coming back." Al-Abdallah is now exploiting the blogosphere to fight for change from across the world. He talks to the World Association of Newspapers. 

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Assad does not want real peace with Israel

In the last two or three years, a number of old arguments regarding Syria have again become fashionable. One of them is that peace with Syria is not only "there to be had," but that it may lead to drastic changes in Syrian behavior, in turn altering regional dynamics for the better. However, in several recent interviews, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has made statements that paint a very different picture.

In his comments, Assad clarified exactly what he meant by "peace" with Israel, and it bore no resemblance to the rosy scenarios painted by the "peace processors." In fact, the president raised serious questions about the value of any such deal altogether.

In a recent interview with the Emirati newspaper Al-Khaleej, Assad made a remarkable - and indeed unprecedented - comment about what his concept of "peace" with Israel was. "A peace agreement," he said, "is a piece of paper you sign. This does not mean trade and normal relations, or borders, or otherwise."

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Syria's role in the Gaza crisis

The ongoing conflict in Gaza has often been compared, both rightly and wrongly, to Israel's war with Hizbullah in the summer of 2006. One of the points of convergence is Syria's heavy hand in instigating and sustaining the conflict. Indeed, as in 2006, a regional fault line has once again been drawn between the Iranian-Syrian axis, which includes the terrorists groups Hamas and Hizbullah, and US allies like Israel, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Working closely with its ally Iran, Syria aspires to establish itself as a major power player in the region - at the expense of the current interlocutor Egypt. Syria has used non-state actors to subvert efforts to maintain a relative level of calm within the Palestinian territories and undermine the interests of the United States and its allies. Syria's interest, as has been its modus operandi for decades, is in exacerbating such crises in order to present itself as an indispensable address for "engagers." Destabilizing Gaza is Syria's latest tool in re-establishing its regional influence.

Syria and the rockets from Lebanon

As expected, a few rockets were lobbed into Israel. While no one has claimed responsibility, it's fairly clear a) who's behind it, and b) why.

The threat of rockets from Lebanon was delivered early on in the fighting when the Lebanese Armed Forces dismantled eight Katyusha rockets set for firing into Israel. The Lebanese authorities at the time openly suspected this to be the work of the Syrian proxy, the Damascus-based PFLP-GC [Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command].

Then, as the fighting went on in Gaza, the Iranians sent a delegate to Damascus, Saeed Jalili, to discuss the Gaza situation with the Syrians and the Palesitinian factions based there. After the meeting, the PFLP-GC's secretary general, Ahmad Jibril, declared that "new military fronts will be opened and the circle of war will be widened as long as the Rafah crossing remained closed."

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Syria: Terror Inc.

The list of countries affected by Syrian terror sponsorship had (most recently) included states like Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the US, Germany (and US targets there), Spain, Israel and more. Now add Bahrain to the list (Arabic articles here and here).

The Bahraini (Shiites) who were arrested for plotting to carry out major terror attacks during Bahrain's national holiday on December 17, trained for their operation in Syria, adding further support to the charge that Syria is Terror Grand Central - - consciously using its territory as a safe haven, revolving door, and distribution/reorientation hub for terrorists of all stripes targeting Syria's enemies (which happen to be the US and its allies).

Syria sets its trap for the Obama administration

This article originally appeared as part of a symposium titled An Obama Administration in the Middle East published by the MERIA Journal in December 2008, Vol 12 No.4 .

In approaching Syria, the new administration will have to navigate carefully amidst myths, fantasies, and traps laid not just by the Syrians, but also by credulous experts here in the United States. The best way to do so is to assess soberly the Syrian regime's nature, interests, priorities, and instruments as well as the history of diplomatic engagement with it.

Syria wants the US to adopt its own grossly inflated self-image as a major regional power without which "nothing can be done" in the Middle East. Despite a concept of its role far outweighing its capabilities, Syria is, in fact, a weak Third World country with few resources. As such, in order to project an influence well above its weight, the Syrian regime has chronically relied on violence, terrorist proxies, acting as a spoiler, and Iran, with whom it has had an enduring 30-year old strategic alliance.

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What the IAEA report tells us about Bashar Assad

Last month, the IAEA issued a report on the events that took place on Syrian soil last year and in which Israel was accused of destroying a nuclear facility. Here is the leaked version of the IAEA report [PDF] on Syria courtesy of the ISIS site.

The report shows pretty clearly that the site destroyed in September of 2007 was a North Korean-style nuclear site and makes a mockery of the already hilarious Syrian statements on the site.

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