Eye on Lebanon: Why not neutrality?

I don't care that Syria doesn't want it, or the Palestinians, Iran, the US or the Saudis. To heck with them all! Why can't the Lebanese stand up and say, 'we have had enough of all your plots and we refuse to be used as tools. Is it better to have the ongoing dialogue of the deaf?

If and when that happens, it will be the start of Lebanon's rejuvenation. The idea in itself is not revolutionary. If anything, it is common sense. That is what is lacking in Lebanon's political leadership. From Amal to Hizbullah, to the Lebanese Forces, to Jumblatt's PSP, to Kataeb, communists, leftists, Sunni extremists - all blame the other (s) for asking and following orders from outside.

How preposterous is that? They are all doing it. Two options:

1) They all stop blaming one another and get on with building and strengthening institutions. A state, any state relies on institutions. If you weaken the very structure of a state, what else is there? Lebanon has no President since November 2007, no Parliament and the Government is barely working, and that's because all parties involved look outside for leverage of some sort.

2) No one stops and the current state of affairs will go on, until one side is strong enough to subdue the other. To what end? Will there be a Lebanon standing tall after a major internal conflict? History teaches us that the ones subdued will do whatever possible to gain the upper hand. A war of all against all.

Lebanon is a country of 4 million with 18 recognized sects, and 6 main ones but the struggle is between Sunni and Shia. This is a regional struggle played in Lebanon, because you have Hizbullah (and through it Iran and to a lesser extent, Syria) and you have the Sunnis strongly supported by Saudi Arabia and Egypt (mainly) and their disputes.

The problem is that the Christians are being divided into oblivion by taking sides, instead of being a third party mediator. Who else can act as a mediator? I did not forget about the Druze but they too are divided (Jumblatt and Talal Arslan, Wiam Wahhab) and, anyway, in this struggle we needed the Christian base to be strong and influential. Nowadays its neither.

Furthermore, is there a need for a new social contract? Definitely. We now have two (main) visions that go one against the other. A consociational political system does not work as well as some have thought. It may be because of our human nature. As someone recently said to me, "all Generals and no foot soldiers."

This is just one of the countless examples of this qualitative difference.

"On 8 September 2006, March 14 forces issued what has become known as the Bristol declaration: Any armed force that is not part of the state is not a deterrent against Israeli aggression. . . Lebanon has become an arena exploited by Iran to consolidate its negotiating position vis-à-vis the international community with regards to its regional role. Syria also is using Lebanon to restore its hegemony over the country and to escape any consequence from the international probe into president Rafik al-Hariri's assassination."

and,

"Naim Qasem, Hizballah's second in command, stated: The basis of every crisis in the region is Israel's presence. To maximize its security, it must exert pressure on its Arab environment. Israel feels a perpetual need to interfere in Lebanese politics, resorting at some times to military at others to political domination. Did it not try to alter the domestic political equation by creating Antoine Lahd's South Lebanese Army, imposing President Bechir Gemayel in 1982 and waging a war this summer? All this makes protecting the resistance project absolutely central." (Lebanon at a Tripwire, International Crisis Group, http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=4586)

Irreconcilable positions.That is why a third alternative has to be found or Lebanon will be in a continuous state of conflict. This clash is peripheral, as the forces that provoke it are not interested to have it spread within their borders, so they'll keep it at bay, while using the Lebanese and gaining all they can at a regional and international level. About such types of conflicts, their impact, and much more, I highly recommend the book of Umberto Eco, Turning Back the Clock: Hot Wars and Media Populism.

How should this social contract look like? I am not sure. You are most welcome to throw ideas and visions into discussion.

PS. Dr Fuad Abou Nader (www.jebha.org) mentioned the term 'positive neutrality' in one of his public speeches, where Lebanon has a relationship based on mutual respect with both its neighbors, and in the intra -, and inter Arab - West quarrels plays the role of mediator. An idea worthy of thought.