Big Jew on Campus: Al Qaida's veiled admission

Reports last week that the situation in Iraq has improved dramatically did not just come from Western sources but also from al Qaida itself. Al-Qaida's second in command, Dr. Ayman Zawahiri, produced a video condemning Iran for "cooperating with the Americans in occupying Iraq and Afghanistan." Although the claim is bizarre and baseless, Zawahiri's mention of Iran was a look into the state of the Muslim world, as well as a veiled admission of defeat.

What Zawahiri outlined in his comments on Iran was his impression of a Shi'ite power-play in Iraq, a predominantly Shi'ite country. Al-Qaida's Iraqi off-shoot, 'al-Qaida in Iraq' had been attempting to install a fundamentalist Sunni Muslim regime in Iraq after the American invasion created a power vacuum in 2003. A democratic, peaceful, and Shi'ite Iraq ends al-Qaida's chances of creating an Iraqi theocracy and thwarts attempts at al-Qaida control.

This was the scenario in the Anbar province until Coalition forces regained control. Although a Sunni-Shi'ite split was always apparent in Iraq, as well as throughout Muslim history, it came as most obvious in April when Zawahiri claimed the "Persians" are the enemy of the Arabs. Zawihiri's comments about the "Persians" took the conflict out of a religious context and put it into the ethnic realm, totally severing any connection that al-Qaida may have with their fellow [theocratic and fundamentalist] Muslims in Iran. These developments and Zawihiri's statement are clear indication that the Muslim world, at least on the fundamentalist fringe, is in a total split between Shi'ite and Sunni. Zawahiri's statements are thus a plea to all Arabs in Iraq to turn against the Americans and their Iranian "supporters."

Al-Qaida, a Sunni network, does not appeal to the average Shi'ite Iraqi. By breaking down the conflict along ethnic lines (Persian vs. Arab), and not religious (Shi'ite vs. Sunni), al-Qaida is attempting to gain the support of the largest Iraqi demographic - Shi'ite Arabs - that it desperately needs. This plea comes as the Anbar province, which is predominantly Sunni and previously totally uninhabitable for Coalition forces, was handed over to Iraqi security forces by the Americans last week. Al-Qaida in Iraq once ruled the streets in the Anbar province, and started to enforce a hard-line religious system. As al-Qaida in Iraq started oppressing the local population with their religious agenda, the local population started turning to the Americans. Al-Qaida lost another stronghold in Iraq and is turning to anyone for help, even Shi'ites.

Zawahiri's video is an indication of two important developments; one, al-Qaida is not the global force that it used to be, and it lost an extremely important battleground to the United States. Not only was it defeated by American military forces, but fellow Sunni Arabs in Anbar rejected al-Qaida's oppressive rule and started turning to the Coalition forces for help. This was one of the main reasons for the success in that region. Two, because of the defeat of al-Qaida and the decline in overall violence, Iraq is on the road to democracy and perhaps even peace. If al-Qaida is ruled by Shi'ites, that would mean that the majority is ruling, unlike the days of Sadaam's rule and of al-Qaida's temporary hold on certain areas.

In the short-term, America has to terminate the remaining threat of al-Qaida in Iraq which may occur sometime soon. But in the long-term, Zawahiri pointed to the next threat in Iraq. For Iraq to keep on the road towards normality, it must keep Iran's influence at bay. The Shi'ite majority in Iraq should rule, but not as an Iranian puppet.