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Thursday May 24, 2007
In the Trenches: US Muslim Population Figures: Fact and Fiction Posted by David Harris
Comments: 31
On May 22, 2007, the respected Pew Research Center issued the results from “the first-ever, nationwide, random sample survey of Muslim Americans.” Among the study’s striking findings: the US Muslim population was estimated at 2.35 million. No doubt, to some this estimate comes as a shock. For more than a decade, absent census data on religious affiliation, the figure has been the source of speculation and, yes, brazen manipulation. Knowingly or not, many government officials, scholars and media outlets, have bandied about as articles of faith exaggerated numbers of American Muslims. Judge for yourself: A 1996 article in the notoriously anti-Israel Washington Report on Middle East Affairs declared: “According to Dr. Sayyid Syeed, secretary-general of the Islamic Society of North America (ISNA), there are between 6 and 8 million Muslims in the United States today. The New York Times, which has its own agenda, placed the number between 2 and 4 million two years ago. Dr. Diana Eck, who is working on the subject at Harvard University, believes the correct figure is somewhere in between.” In 1997, the Britannica Yearbook was cited on a New York Times Company-owned website (About.com) as the source for the figure of 5.53 million Muslims living in North America. In April 2001, a project involving the Hartford Institute for Religious Research and the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) led to the publication of The Mosque in America: A National Portrait. The lead researcher, Ihsan Bagby, a professor of international relations at Shaw University and a CAIR board member, reportedly had no training as a demographer. That didn’t stop him from presenting his “guesstimation” of 6-7 million Muslims in the US. On September 30, 2001, USA Today, in an article on Islam and Arab-Americans, reported, without naming a source, that “an estimated 7 million Muslims live in the USA.” In the September/October 2003 issue of Islamic Horizons, published in the US, Ilyas Ba-Yunus, a demographer at the State University of New York at Cortland, declared that “there are close to 10 million North American Muslims.” In 1997, in a publication for the East-West University, he had estimated the number at 6.7 million. In 2004, a book entitled Muslims’ Place in the American Public Square and associated with Georgetown University, declared that “at least 6.5 million Muslims live in the United States.” A report entitled “The Diversity of Muslims in the United States,” published in 2006 by the United States Institute of Peace, noted that, “There are approximately 6 to 7.5 million Muslims in the United States who identify themselves as Americans.” An August 27, 2006 article in the Washington Post on American Muslim assimilation stated that there are “approximately 6 million Muslims in the United States.” On January 17, 2007, Investor’s Business Daily addressed the demographic issue in an article entitled “The 8-million Muslim Lie.” It cited a spokeswoman for the Muslim Advancement Society boasting on CNN that “there are 8 million Muslims in America now” and a Muslim chaplain in the Marine Corps asserting that “today, 8 to 10 million Muslims live in the United States.” Then, in a rare instance of media courage, it challenged these claims as “wildly inflated” and astutely added that “politicians in Washington are intimidated by the figure.” Visit the Public Broadcasting Service website and check out the “Frontline” discussion of frequently asked questions about Muslims and the Islamic faith. To the question “How many Muslims are there in the United States?”, the response is, “Estimates range that between five to 12 million Muslims live in the United States.” At one point, even former President Bill Clinton used a figure of seven million, while National Public Radio has more than once spoken of six million Muslims in the United States. Will the Pew estimate of 2.35 million now take hold? Don’t hold your breath. In the late 1990s, AJC began approaching several mainstream media outlets to ask why they routinely cited numbers that appeared grossly exaggerated, often came from groups with dubious political agendas, and surely couldn’t withstand closer scrutiny. Most answers fell into one of three categories: (i) lazy journalism; (ii) fear of risking a confrontation with Muslim groups; or (iii) an inquiry from a Jewish group, no matter how the issue was framed, was deemed dead on arrival. Bottom line: we had zero impact. In 2001, we went the next step, knowing full well that, as a Jewish organization and notwithstanding our longstanding reputation for solid research, we’d be potentially vulnerable to attack. But no other institution stepped forward, so we forged ahead. We approached an academic heavyweight, Dr. Tom W. Smith, the director of the General Social Survey at the National Opinion Research Center of the University of Chicago, whose scholarly integrity and impartiality were beyond dispute. He was asked to examine the available literature on the US Muslim population. In October 2001, he reported his findings: “Since the September 11 terrorist attacks, the media have used estimates of the Muslim population in the United States of 5-8 million, with an average of 6.7 million or 2.4 percent of the population.” In the previous five years, 1996-2001, he looked at 20 estimates and they averaged out to 5.65 million. After thoroughly studying all available data and the methodologies used, Dr. Smith concluded: “The best, adjusted, survey-based estimates put the adult Muslim population in 2000 at 0.67 percent, or 1,401,000, and the total Muslim population at 1,886,000. Even if high-side estimates based on local surveys, figures from mosques, and ancestry and immigration statistics are given more weight than survey-based numbers, it is hard to accept estimates that Muslims constitute more than 1 percent of the population (2,090,000 adults or 2,814,000 total).” Unbeknownst to AJC at the time, The Graduate Center of the City University of New York (CUNY) was completing its 2001 omnibus American Religious Identification Survey. The results were strikingly similar to those of Dr. Smith. The survey found 1,104,000 adult Muslims in the U.S. Allowing for undercounting or sampling error, the survey suggested that the uppermost range would be 2.2 million to just under 3 million. The studies were widely reported on at the time, including major stories by the New York Times and Washington Post. The assault from those invested in the higher numbers was immediate. The American Muslim Council accused Smith of trying to “deny the existence of four-and-a-half million American Muslims” and “tearing at the heart of America,” while claiming that its own figure of 7 million Muslims emerged from the most recent U.S. Census—an impossibility since the Census does not ask about religious affiliation. Meanwhile, CAIR described the Smith study as a “desperate attempt to discount the role of American Muslims.” Its spokesman went on to declare that, “Very often the representatives of the extremist wing of the pro-Israel lobby, such as the American Jewish Committee, seek to block Muslim political participation.” The AJC-sponsored and CUNY studies couldn’t easily be attacked on scientific grounds. That didn’t stop others, though, from continuing to repeat the outlandishly exaggerated numbers ad nauseum, or wielding the “Islamophobia” charge against anyone who dared use the reports’ figures. To a large degree, those twin strategies worked. Look again at the examples cited above from 2002 onward, after the studies appeared. Now a third study has been released. Pew has a well-earned reputation for quality research. Will its findings change things? What will the New York Times, National Public Radio, the Public Broadcasting System, USA Today, Encyclopedia Brittanica, elected officials, and scholars at Georgetown and Harvard universities, among others, say the next time they’re in need of US Muslim population numbers? Will they now cite the three authoritative and convergent studies on the subject? Or the exaggerated and politically-motivated numbers afloat out there? Or simply split the difference, convincing themselves that this is the “fairest” approach? Stay tuned.
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Zoe,
Thursday May 24, 2007
Bravo to David Harris for dealing with this issue. In fact, I just happened to hear him in a debate regarding the Pew study on WNYC, the National Public Radio station in New York. One of the other guests tried to minimize the importance of the wild exaggeration of Muslim numbers by American Islamic groups, but Harris didn't let him get away with his patent nonsense. And when the host, Brian Lehrer, asked Harris why it mattered, he responded straightforwardly that these groups were trying to gain political power and clout built on manufactured numbers. Let's now see whether politicians and the media will continue to be cowed by extremist Muslim groups claiming 6-12 million coreligionists in the U.S., or begin to use the reliable numbers of Pew (2.35 million) when discussing the Muslim population estimate. Does it matter? You bet.
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Jerri I,
Thursday May 24, 2007
These figures were reported about a year ago in the Wall Street Journal.The higher figures according to the article in the WSJ are a Moslem ploy to show they are stronger than the U.S. Jewish population.However I know for a fact that many Jews who feel they are knowlegeable believe the higher figures.I had an opportunity to dispute one such.
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theo,
Thursday May 24, 2007
I would venture that this gross exaggeration is typical of the Muslim culture. It is very similar to the quoted inflated statistics of the size of the Palestinian population. Palestinian sources also commonly float other exaggerations such as 'Holocaust-like massacres', 'apartheid'-wall etc, for their propaganda purposes which resonate and are easily picked up by the media . Filtering this nonsense would be a journalist / editor's duty however screaming headlines take priority over the truth.
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Dan,
Thursday May 24, 2007
"What will the New York Times.... say the next time they're in need of US Muslim population numbers?" The New York Times will simply keep using the inflated numbers, since they didn't even think the story worth reporting on. Not even in their National Briefs section.
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Efox,
Friday May 25, 2007
A Horde takes Comfort in Numbers. They have no sense of perspective, but they will also not be honest with us. They will exaggerate as they always have, but they will also lie to anyone who investigates. Studies will come up short while their claims come up long. They see everyone as an enemy, they assume everyone sees them the same way. Maybe we should. We do not know how many of us there are, we know even less about their numbers.
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Joseph,
Friday May 25, 2007
It's common for early census figures to be less accurate and for newspapers to exaggerate, so the initial inflated numbers don't concern me. However, the acussations of anti-Muslim bias is cause for concern. Any debate on the numbers should center around sampling methods. When the lower figures get shoulded out by a knee jerk bias accusation, there is no hope for objective research or honest disagreement.
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Githendil,
Friday May 25, 2007
Why is the Pew Study number automatically considered to be more accurate than other estimations? Regardless, it is beside the point. U.S. Muslims deserve their civil rights, and they deserve equal protection under the law by virtue of the 14th amendment. More importantly, bloggers and columnists in Israel would do well to point out how the Pew Study shows that American Muslims reject extremism and embrace assimilation. Indeed, most of the Pew Study shows positive results for both Jews and Muslims in America and abroad, resulting in a "win-win" outcome so rarely seen in the unfortunate "zero-sum" world of Jewish-Muslim relations.
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Scott Rose,
Friday May 25, 2007
Beyond the question of numbers, there is that of actual belief. A person who happened to immigrate to the US from a Muslim country, but wanted nothing to do with Islam, might be counted by some as a Muslim even though he/she has no desire to be counted that way.
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SALAH SALAAM,
Friday May 25, 2007
YOU CAN'T DO AN ACCURATE SURVEY BECAUSE MUSLIMS LIVE IN CLUSTERS IN A FEW METROPOLITAN AREAS, LIKE CHICAGO, DETROIT, LA, NY, DALLAS, ETC.. YOU WILL NOT FIND MANY MUSLIMS IN SAY ALABAMA.. AND THIS SURVEY DIDN'T COUNT AFRICAN AMERICAN MUSLIMS EITHER, WHICH ARE WELL OVER A MILLION ALONE
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Mordi,
Friday May 25, 2007
Even with this adjusted number, there has still been astonishing growth over the past few years.
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Dee,
Friday May 25, 2007
How do we even know that there are up to 1 billion Musilims worldwide? We don't know! It has always been a tactic of Islamists to exaggerate their numbers for political gain, and the left (helped by their Media pawns) want that Muslim vote so badly that they don't care about the ramifications of such lies for Western society and thought. Let's hear the truth for once.
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Zoli,
Friday May 25, 2007
This seems to be a pattern. They exaggerate the Muslim population on the West Bank. Funnily, they even do it for Hungary. Wikipedia states 60000 in Hungary, although census showed 1/20-th of that! They did not let me correct the high number in Wikipedia.
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jerry,
Friday May 25, 2007
SHHH!!!..DON'T LET THE MUSIMS HEAR YOU CALLING THEM LIARS...THEY MAY RIOT , PILLAGE ,BURN ,BLOW UP..WHO CAN PREDICT WHAT SOME OF THESE RADICAL IMAMS THAT PREACH HATRED TO THEM MAY CALL ON THEM TO DO ..HOOF- HEARTED
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Christine,
Friday May 25, 2007
Let Muslims aside, how many Jews are there in the world?
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Patrick,
Friday May 25, 2007
I tend to think it would be a good idea to find out who and where and what the numbers are of the muslims in the USA. Since over 95% of terrorist acts worldwide are carried out by so called muslims and most muslims are anti American and anti Israel why not? Oh but lets be politically correct and not "profile". HOGWASH
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Patrick,
Friday May 25, 2007
I tend to think it would be a good idea to find out who and where and what the numbers are of the muslims in the USA. Since over 95% of terrorist acts worldwide are carried out by so called muslims and most muslims are anti American and anti Israel why not? Oh but lets be politically correct and not "profile". HOGWASH
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Fiona,
Friday May 25, 2007
To Githendil (#7), who is questioning the civil rights of U.S. Muslims? That's not an issue in this discussion. Yes, the Pew study of American Muslims revealed some encouraging news, especially when compared with comparable surveys of British Muslims. At the same time, there were areas of concern, especially the fact that only 40 percent of respondents believed that Arabs carried out the attacks on 9/11 -- what do the rest believe? -- and the fact that a significant number of younger respondents in particular were prepared to justify suicide bombings in the defense of Islam. To Salah Salaam (#9), the Pew methodology accounted for the clustering of Muslims. That's not an obstacle these days to survey research, whether in the US or UK. Moreover, you are incorrect in stating that African Americans Muslims weren't counted. Visit the Pew website, check out the survey, and you'll see that they were listed as constituting 20 percent of the total population and included in the study. And thanks to David Harris for once again taking on a timely issue and discussing it with reason and clarity.
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John,
Friday May 25, 2007
I think the number of Jews whom are known to be Jews, worldwide, is about 15 million. However if you add the number of Halachic Jews, whom DO NOT KNOW they are Jewish (and the kids of Jewish wives) I think you would get a number of about 20 million? NO WAY there are about 5 million muslims in the USA (THANK G'D!!). I believe in the number of 2.35. Huge flows of ARABS have come to the USA during many years. MOST of them (about 75%?) were chr'stians. Many Lebanese, Syrian and Iranian chr'stians. Many statistics see ARABS as muslims. And there have been A LOT of muslim-converts to chr'stianity. Only due to the number of converts, the number of muslims is rising (?). Since many muslims in the US are middle-class-citizens with high degree's etc, they do not have a extremely high birthrate.
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John,
Friday May 25, 2007
Indeed #8. Many muslims in the US from the Arab countries are assimilated.
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Jonathan,
Saturday May 26, 2007
I admire the courage you have for spending time findind the truth. Of course, your research at first would be considered anti-muslim since AJC is an advocancy group. With PEW, there is no one providing sufficient your worl.
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Robert B Hayes,
Sunday May 27, 2007
What % are Sunnite. What % are Shiites. How well have they assimilated into American culture, etc, etc. I am not very optimistic.
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Jean Sherrell,
Friday Jun 01, 2007
It's a great relief to hear that the high numbers are exaggerations -- THANK YOU David Harris -- if that's true. Indeed, I'd never given a thought to the number of Moslems in the U.S. until I read in the NYTimes some estimate of 10 million. Later, during an NPR interview with a Moslem newspaper editor from the Detroit area (complaining about the Israelis vis a vis Hezbollah as well as American bias in covering such conflicts). The NPR person, falling all over himself to dissociate himself and his network from this "bias", asked the editor why he thought Americans were so favorably inclined to Israel. The editor said it was because of the (what else?) powerful Jewish lobby, whereby Jews have successfully controlled the politicians and press. But, the Detroit editor said unctuously, all that is going to change soon because of the great and growing numbers of Moslems in the US, particularly in the Detroit area, who were becoming politically active and would be a counterweight, overcoming the Jewish advantage. Truthfully, I'm baffled as to why the Moslems want to be seen as more numerous than they actually are in this country, because hasn't the strategy of the Palestinians been -- since the '67 war when the Arabs failed militarily to drive out the Jews -- to present themselves as underdogs and therefore gain international sympathy and support? (It's worked pretty well up till now, actually, though I think now they're going for the demographics to justify squeezing Israel out.) Who knows. Numbers seem to be a big problem for Moslems in general: the Sunnis in Iraq apparently believed and some say continue to believe that they are not a numerical minority in Iraq, and so will never accept Shiite rule. (Can't say that I blame them.) Jean, Northern California, June 1,1:30am
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Christopher Rushlau,
Friday Jun 01, 2007
Speaking of being cowed, I'd like to hear how Israel sees itself as a safe refuge for Jews, or how the AJC can expend such wind in service to this claim. If the Jews of Europe were passive in fleeing the Nazi threat--my reading of Kafka tells me he saw it coming in 1924--Israel seems to be "organized Judaism" (that there should be such a thing) fleeing into harm's way. Denial, defiance, but what does a prophet always say? "It's going to catch up with you." As the lady said to the young lawyer from the Boston consulate's speaker's bureau in the late 90's, "So that's your rubber bullet?"
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alan winters,
Friday Jun 01, 2007
demographics involving muslims is very inaccurate given their cultural trait to falsify answers to their advantage. the same problem exists in Israel and the territories. the demographics there, will soon favor the Jews, not the arabs, contrary to the classic estimates.
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Irvin Jacobs,
Saturday Jun 02, 2007
How indeed does one deal with incorrigible liars?
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Sam Thornton,
Saturday Jun 02, 2007
I can't decide which is whackier, the article or the comments. Who cares how many Muslims live in the US? What difference does it make? Is there something in the water over there that's slowly driving you folks out of your minds? Get a life.
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Jim Hannon,
Sunday Jun 03, 2007
The apparent racism in these comments is quite disturbing. Here's a deal. I'll insist on the lower estimates when David Harris, Larry Summers and other advocates stop equating criticism of particular policies of an Israeli government with being anti-Israel or anti-semitic.
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Zoe,
Sunday Jun 03, 2007
To Sam Thornton (#26), you ask who cares about population numbers. As an American, I care and so should you. The deliberate lying by American Muslim groups serves one purpose only -- to gain political power that has not been earned. And that political power may or may not be used in the best interests of American domestic and foreign policy. Want a preview? Look at what's happening in Western Europe. Enough articles and books have already been written on the subject of the impact of the widespread rejection of assimilation and Western values by the immigrants and their offspring. Read Ayaan Hirsi Ali or Melanie Phillips to get a sense of the real world. And what's happening there is taking place precisely because people like you are either asleep at the wheel or asking such ridiculous questions as "What's the big deal?"
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Ed Stein,
Saturday Jun 09, 2007
More troubling than the actual number of moslems in America is the latest survey results showing that over 50% of them think of themselves as Moslem first and Americans second. And even more sobering -- some 5% of moslems here think that suicide bombings are justifiable as jihad.
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AL LOOKMAN,
Sunday Jun 17, 2007
Reading bigoted hateful comments, I would think we are re-living in 1930s Germany. There are some many sub groups within Muslim communities such as Ismailis, Bhoris and Ahamadis that are not accounted for and don't fall into the major Sunnis and Shia communities, and most Muslims are poorly organized and non active in politics and have the lowest voter turnout among major religious groups. But than what would I know? I am a committed number manufacturer! What a bunch of rubbish!
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zari namdar,
Thursday Jun 21, 2007
i was lucky to be born a muslim!.....dear mr. harris:once i was born muslim in the country of iran under the beloved king pahlavi.in those good old days, iranian schools were a symbol of peace.muslims,christians,jewish,and bahaii students were all friends ,no kids cared who is from what religion!we loved eachother .iran under our beloved king pahlavi respected and cared for all iranians regardless of their faith.i must tell the universe the jewish iranians were very respected and loved by iranians.the jewish hospital in tehran was one of the best hospital ! and they never refused to give care .the hospital was known to be the most carring.even the doctor of our beloved king was a great bahaii[dr.ayadi]which was my doctor too.the christians too were very much loved by iranians .my father ambassador[mostafa namdar]always on the daily basses reminded us ,how iran is colorfull,because of diversity of culture,and faith.that was iran yesterday.!mr. jimmy carter stabbed the great shah of iran in the back!and braught chaos and terrorism accross the globe.today i am a convert to christianity with a jewish soul.as a muslim child i had to attend my religious islamic classes.i could never digest all the teachings, and i could not wait for the class to end.i say i was lucky to be born as a muslim because i had the chance to really see the depth of islam.all mohammad[the founder of islam ]teaches is hate and revange.my father 30 years ago, none stop would say"islam one day will destroy our shinnig country,and will put us into shame"shame on you mr. carter to bring that evile man khomeini to replace the shah of iran ,the best friend of usa and the globe.shame on you mr.carter that you even call yourself a christian .shame on you that you are antisemite....mr. carter, jesus was a jewish man and was born on the soil of israel!mr. carter ,your behavior is like a devout muslim terrorist!it looks like mr.carter converted to islam in the closet!....with love and respect for usa and israely soldeirs.zari namdar.....a zionist artist...www.zainamdar.com.....thank you mr.harris for dedicating your life for peace! |
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