After the NIE: where do we go from here?

There are many caveats to the screaming headlines that the US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) has declared that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003. The caveats not only reinforce the fact that the medium-term threat from a nuclear Iran is still very much before us, but also should call into question the conclusion of many that any immediate sense of urgency should be removed from the discussion.

The caveats involve both the language of the NIE report itself and interpretations of the meaning of some of the NIE statements and conclusions.

First, despite the implication of the headlines that Iran stopped its nuclear program in 2003 until the current time, in fact there is ambiguity in the NIE as to whether Iran has continued to halt the program. Carefully using words like "high confidence" meaning quite sure based on confirmed quality sources, and "moderate confidence" which suggests plausible sources but not fully corroborated, the NIE attributes "high confidence" to its judgment that Iran halted its weapons program in 2003; and "high confidence" that this "halt lasted at least several years"; but only "moderate confidence" that Iran had not restarted its nuclear program as of mid-2007.

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