A Point of View: After the NIE: where do we go from here?

Foxman is missing the point here. The bottom line of the campaigne against Iran was never the fact the country may eventually be capable of producing a nuke or two. An arsenal of this size could only be defensive and of no military use against Israel, with its hundreds of nuclear devices. Any deployment would be scuicide. This fact was always rejected by the assertion that the Ayatollahs were irrational, radical and crazy enough to take their own destruction into accout in attaking Israel. The NIE report shows exactly the opposite. Iran acts rational and predictable in its dealings with the Int. Community concerning its nuclear aspirations. So going by the facts - The only "nightmare scenario" would be a military adventure against Iran similar to tha against Iraq with similar results.t

The largest concern, in international relations, is uncertainty; uncertainty could lead to extreme reactions. If Iran's current leadership has above board intentions, then it should stabilize the situation ASAP by: 1. opening up its facilities to the international experts; 2 demonstrating that it has extensive controls on all aspects of its program, especially security controls; 3. fully account for the enriched product; 4. demonstrate a reliable command structure over the program; 5. Sign up and adhere to the international nuclear agreements and protocols; and 6. Stop threatening/retract the past statements related to the destruction of Israel. The greatest immediate risk, is not just related to the production of a nuclear weapon, but to the loss or deliberate diversion of nuclear material to terror groups. There are many internal groups, reported in various press articles, in Iran that are working on the replacement of the government; some through peacefull means others through armed struggle; this situation poses a great internal risk to the nuclear related facilities. In addition, from time to time it is not clear as to who is in fact iin charge Revolutionary Guards, Ayatollah's, Civil Gov, etc. So all these observations raise great red flags to all watching Iran; all these flags can be addressed, and should be in the power to resolve by the current Iranian government.

I'll tell you where we go from here. You go back to your fat salary following your trite comments. Israel youth go to war which there leaders refuse to win. Bush goes to enforce his roadmap no matter how bad the situation gets. The e.u. goes behind bush blindly. The Hamas go to smuggling more rockets and firing at sderot civilians. Sderot civilians go to sleep scared and uprotected by Israeli leaders. Israeli leaders go to get sympathy from above world leaders and do nothing for the good of the country at large. etc. etc. that's where we're going, to hell but not back.

Foxman IS NOT missing the point, on the contrary, he is right on the mark. This is the classic story of The Boy Who Cried Wolf. We were duped by the Bush Administration on Iraq, but this time, there really IS a Wolf in Iran. If we don't keep the pressure on this tyrant, and if he doesn't feel the real threat that we will stop him by whatever means necessary, I am afraid we will soon find out just how on the mark Foxman is.

Why would Iran attack Isreal? It has no reason to, unless Isreal attacks it first, and it seems as if Isreal is trying to push it to war. This would be bad for both the econoies of Isreal and the U.S . The Iraqi war has shown this already, and the U.S has within the last 8 years been on a steady decline, in fact, the housing market has been the worst in DECADES. this is needless to say the war would also cause the death of innocent lives. thanks

Mr. Foxman is absolutely right on his assessment of the situation. However, the world is looking at Mullah's nuclear issues through a wrong angle. So far everyone has put the cart before the horse! By this we mean, everyone is looking at Mullah's nuclear ambition rather than looking at Mullah's Regime! To use the NIE Report Jargon, we do have "HIGH CONFIDENCE" if the Mullah's regime is toppled, the Nuclear crisis created by the Mullah's will also diminish. The problem is not Nuclear ambition of Mullah's. Their ambition; way's to achieve their long standing goals. The leadership of Islam and controlling the region. The problem are the Mullah's themselves. If these Mullah's are removed from the seat of power, replaced by a secular, democratic regime in Iran, all the problems will subside. The region will see peace and stability for the first time. Please bear in mind, no matter what agreement the civilized world reach with mullah's, you can rest assure, they will break it or work secretly to achieve their final goal. Making the Atomic Bombs. Time and time Mullah's of Iran have proven they could not be trusted. From so called Moderate Mullah's to Hardliners. They are all the same. After all, it was during the moderate Mullah's rule that world discovered Mullah's Nuclear activities. Again with a "High Confidence" we can state the majority of Iranians, other than those who are paid by Mullah's to be in their employment fighting the world, are against the Mullah's and in favor of Israel and it's people. Today, President Shimon Peres has more credibility with Iranian people than President Bush. You might think this hard to believe. But, this is absolute truth. If President Peres addresses Iranian people when the time comes, Iranian people will be on the side of Israel people in helping for the regime change. In light of above, let us put the priorities on the right track. Let's put the cart behind the horse. The major goal must be regime change. With regime change the nuclear threat from Mullah's will disappear. To achieve this goal there is no need to go to war. Just boycotting Mullah's oil and stop selling refined gasoline to Mullah's will do the job. US Fleet is in Persian Gulf. How hard is it to impose a blocade on Mullah's? despite of Russia and China appeasement.

I believe that the current efforts of the Western world to stop Iran from obtaining a bomb or two, is fruitless. Bush doesn't have any spirit or the strength to confront Iran, Israel doesn't have the long distance capabilites and the EU acts, as always, as eunuchs. I'll take a contrarian point of view. Let them have it. There are a number of countries in the world that now have the A-bomb; it seems to have sobered them a bit (look at North Korea for instance). Using the MAD approach that has held down any global inferno, it's quite possible that Iran will kind of sober up, once it gets it. That may not be the best alternative, but it could give the world a number of years to breathe and perhaps see a more congenial regime gan control over the country sometime in the future.

Why Iran?s Mullahs Must Have the Bomb? By: Amil Imani Because their very survival depends on it; because they know how vastly unpopular they are at home; and because they have absolutely no legitimacy to exist, and the bomb would give them a greater freedom to obliterate the freedom-loving Iranian people with impunity and export their brand of Islam outside Iran?s boundary with carte blanche. Perhaps the most salient element of wanting to acquire the bomb is what the Ayatollah Khomeini was worried about: the existence of Islam in Iran. The Islamic Republic of Iran is consciously aware that once its Islamic Empire falls, Islam will be its first victim, and he wasn?t wrong. The ever-conniving mullahs dread the Iranian people. Granted that a small percentage of Iranians, known as the 3Fs?fools, fanatics and frauds?support the mullahs. No totalitarian rule can ever survive without a segment of the population, for one reason or another, supporting it. Yet, time is not on the side of the mullahs. By their mismanagement, thievery and oppression of the masses, they have created explosive internal conditions.They must have the bomb to create a fake sense of security. The National Intelligence Estimates are designed to alert the president of national security developments and provide guidelines for policy makers. A U.S. source said about the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report on Iran: "It's a full look at what we know, what we don't know and what assumptions we have.? The problem arises about what we don?t know and the accuracy of what we assume we know. Knowing the past and the present behavior of the Islamic regime makes it very hard to believe they have abandoned what seems to be their final card to play. The Islamic Republic cannot possibly live longer than it already has without the bomb. In dealing with the mullahs ruling Iran, what you see is not what you get, and what you hear is not what they mean. Transparency and honesty are not their strong suit. So, we need a first-rate sleuth to see through their smoke-and-mirrors, as well as beyond their twisted tongues into their warped brains. The mullahs, however, say to the world (if you are ever foolish enough to trust the word of a people whose religion not only officially condones but recommends taqqyeh?lying?to achieve a higher purpose) they promise, on their Boy Scout?s honor, to limit their nuclear activity to peaceful endeavors under the United Nation?s watchful eye. In return for their promise, which you cannot even sell at 100% discount, the mullahs demand that the world?led by the Big Dog, the United States of America, and the lesser dogs, the Europeans? give them iron-clad security guarantees. The bargain that the Allah-fearing and peace-loving mullahs offer makes even the shrewdest Yankee trader strictly amateurish by comparison, one suspects. The historians have concluded that history is cyclic and unless one learns from its mistakes, we will be doomed to endure an endless repetition of the cause and effect of poor management systems. Also, the French author Charles Pinot Duclos, observed: ?We see on the theater of the world a certain number of scenes which succeed each other in endless repetition: where we see the same faults followed regularly by the same misfortunes, we may reasonably think that if we could have known the first we might have avoided the others. The past should enlighten us on the future.? That the ?divinely-directed? Mullahs are ruling Iran with rock-solid resolve to carry out their ?divine plan? of imposing their brand of Islam on the world with the help of the Bomb is a very scary thought. To frustrate the fanatical Mullahs and defeat their existential threat, we need to understand how their minds work as well as the methods they use to achieve their deadly objective. There have been many recommendations from the so-called experts. These expert recommendations and a myriad of others suffer from one fundamental flaw: the failure to fully understand and take into account the mindset of the Mullahs, since many of their ideas are based on little more than divining information from the ether while seated comfortably in their ivory tower offices thousands of miles away from the-on-the ground reality where the enemy schemes and operates. For nearly two decades, the Islamic Republic pursued a clandestine nuclear program. It came partially to light in 2002, mostly through information from exiles, and has led to U.N. inspections, sanctions and a standoff. The Islamic regime insists its program is for civilian power generation only. That is what they are saying. Nonetheless, Mullahs cannot possibly survive without the bomb. This is the last measure of an exhausted, illegitimate government to exist via deterrence. That is their last card to play. Despite the recent report from NIE, there is absolutely no question that the Mullahs are working around the clock to make the bomb. This accusation routinely comes almost every day from U.S. officials: Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon, sponsoring terrorism, killing Americans in Iraq and intent on Israel's destruction. Yet, some U.S. officials add, the Islamic government will collapse if only given a push. And a little push is exactly what the Iranian people have been craving for nearly 29 years. Yet, there has not been one single push, and now most Iranians seem to be convinced that the U.S. is in cahoots with the Islamic regime, and that the rhetoric coming from the U.S. and its Western allies is simply an orchestrated show of deceit. President Bush, in a speech at the American Legion's national convention, on August 28 said, "Iran's active pursuit of technology that could lead to nuclear weapons threatens to put a region already known for instability and violence under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust. Iran's actions threaten the security of nations everywhere." These Islamists go by their 1400-year-old charter of Allah --the Qur'an-- the same charter that they hold in one hand while slashing the throat of an innocent infidel and yelling joyously "Allah is the greatest" the whole time. And as for Iran's mullahs' unyielding drive to acquire the ultimate weapon, it is in obedience to the command of the Quran: Qur'an 8:59 "The infidels should not think that they can get away from us. Prepare against them whatever arms and weaponry you can muster so that you may terrorize them. They are your enemy and Allah's enemy." And for those who advocate retreating to the safety of "fortress America," the following warning should dispel their vain hope. Europe is already partly invaded, and America and other infidel lands are next. For those misguided advocates of working a deal with the Islamic Republic: The Islamic Republic has been denying and violating a long-suffering people all its human rights. They are guilty of beating, imprisoning and torturing hundreds of women who braved participating in a peaceful demonstration pleading for equal family rights, on the recent International Day of Women. The regime has systematically beaten, imprisoned, and tortured all manners of citizens, from school teachers to students to union workers, for daring to raise their voices against the plight to which they have subjected them. The Islamic regime has savagely beat and hauled to its dungeons of torture and death over a thousand of the tens of thousands of teachers who had recently gathered in front of the parliament requesting nothing more than their back pay and living wages. They have directed systematic genocidal measures against all non-Shi?a religious minorities, with Baha'is as their prime target. They arrest some Christians -- whom even their Quran calls "People of the Book? -- for observing Christmas. They have implemented barbaric practices of stoning, hanging and amputations for those who are convicted of crimes in their kangaroo courts without due process. They even imprison those few lawyers who rise in the defense of the innocent. They have plundered, mismanaged and doled out Iran's national wealth with the result that the great majority of the people are living in poverty. They have forced the Iranian women into prostitution to survive or simply are sold as sex slaves in Persian Gulf states. They spend a fortune on the nuclear program that they claim is only aimed for peaceful purposes, while turning Iran into little more than a gas station nation, with its precious oil wealth squandered and its facilities on the verge of collapse through neglect. They have created a suffocating social atmosphere that has driven masses of the people to the use of hard drugs as a way of numbing their pain. They look far and wide to support any and all terrorists. The Islamic Republic?s delusional theology mandates the creation of horrific conditions in the world so that the Hidden Imam is compelled to appear and establish his rule. They spared no efforts at sabotaging any settlement between the Palestinians and Israelis. They arm and train all Palestinian factions such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and any and all that come. They direct similar criminal schemes on their eastern flank, in Afghanistan. They consider any democratic system as the enemy of Islamofascism, and rightfully so. They have worked ceaselessly to expand Iran's stolen funds, and do all they can in support of Shi?a co-fascists Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Islamic Republic?s hands are dripping with the blood of thousands of Iraqis, victims of its bloodthirsty kin mercenaries aiming to kill a budding democracy in Iraq next door. They have supplied and continue to supply their mercenaries with armor-piercing projectiles for killing and maiming the coalition forces in Iraq. They are cowardly killing by proxy, using these roadside-planted bombs that have taken the lives of hundreds of Americans. A final quote from the late Ayatollah Khomeini, the founding father of the Islamic Revolution, should suffice since his words are still considered authoritative in Iran: ?We do not worship Iran, we worship Allah. For patriotism is another name for paganism. I say let this land [Iran] burn. I say let this land go up in smoke, provided Islam emerges triumphant in the rest of the world.? Now, which words do you still believe in: acquiesce, capitulate, surrender, or just give up? Amil Imani is an Iranian-born American citizen and pro-democracy activist residing in the United States of America. Imani is a columnist, literary translator, novelist and an essayist, who has been writing and speaking out for the struggling people of his native land, Iran. He maintains a website at Amil Imani