Wednesday Mar 05, 2008

Double Standard Watch: British intelligence smarter than US' - and than Gary Hart

Posted by Alan M. Dershowitz
Comments: 46
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Anyone who doubts that Iran is determined to develop deliverable nuclear weapons should not be in position of decision making or influence. The evidence is as clear as can be, despite the "fog of peace" artificially constructed by the recent National Intelligence Estimate issued by our government's collective intelligence agencies. It may be true, as the estimate concludes, that in 2003 the Iranian shifted from a single track approach to a duel track approach - from taking direct steps toward building the bomb to taking indirect steps that have both civilian and military applications. But it does not follow that either the goal of the program, or even its schedule, has changed significantly. 

As I demonstrated in a previous blog, nothing has really changed with regard to the Iranian nuclear threat since 2003 except that Iran is closer today than it was then to developing a nuclear bomb. 

Yet our intelligence community seems to have fallen for Iran's version of two-card monte. Either that, or they are deliberately trying to pull the wool over the eyes of the American public in order to discourage what they believed was a drum-beat for a preemptive attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.

One prominent public figure who seems entirely willing to pull the wool over his own eyes, and those of his readers, is former senator and former presidential hopeful Gary Hart. 

Hart defends the National Intelligence Estimate and castigates me for questioning its Poliana-ish conclusion. He compares those who are concerned about Iran with old-time cold warriors who are trying to fight "the Cold War all over again." He went so far as to call my concern about Iran's nuclear ambitions "not only hysterical but almost catatonic" (He must mean "paranoid" since catatonics manifest their illness by immobility and inaction.)

Well, now my concerns about Iran have been echoed by the British Parliaments' Foreign Affairs Committee, and the Chief United Nations nuclear inspector.

Here is how the British Committee's chairman put it, following a visit to Iran and based on the extensive evidence received by the group:

There is a strong possibility that Iran could establish a "breakout" nuclear weapons capability by 2015." A "breakout capability" is the ability to manufacture a nuclear device within a short period of time by virtue of its nonmilitary nuclear technical capabilities and assets.

Precisely what I, and other critics of the National Intelligence Estimate have been saying! Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the President of Iran, seems to agree. Last Friday he boasted that Iran "will have the final victory in the nuclear arena." This doesn't sound he's talking about a peaceful nuclear alternative energy source in his oil-soaked nation. 

Last week the chief United Nations nuclear inspection provided new evidence, including video from Iran's own military laboratories, showing work "not consistent with any application other than the development of a nuclear weapon." The Iranian representative shouted out that the new evidence consisted of "baseless fabrications." No one believed him. 

No one except Gary Hart, who has a clear conflict of interest when it comes to the Iranian nuclear program. For years now, Hart has been a mouthpiece for the former Soviet Union, especially in the area of alternative energy. He is a founder of the United States-Russia investment fund. It is Russia which exports much of the material necessary for Iran’s nuclear program. If Iran were forced to end its nuclear program, Russia would suffer and so would Gary Hart.

Despite this obvious conflict of interest, which Hart failed to disclose, he has the temerity to accuse others of harboring hidden agendas. This is what he wrote:

The real question is this: What is Professor Dershowitz's agenda here? Many bloggers automatically assumed is has to do with Israel. But Professor Dershowitz does not say so and, having known and respected him for many years, I presume if he is angry because the intelligence report undermines his broader purpose, he would have the courage to simply say so.
Until he does, one must shake one's head in sadness at a fine mind longing for the Cold War, or for a new villain to justify a wrong-headed empirial militancy in the Middle East, or who knows what.
Perhaps now is the time for everyone to put their cards on the table.

Well my cards are on the table. Yes, I worry that an Iran with nuclear weapons, that it has already threatened to use against Israel, would become the first nation in the mid-East to use its nuclear arsenal, not only against Israel but against American interests. I worry that if Iran gets the bomb, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other mid-East nations will feel it necessary to go nuclear as well. I worry that Iran may hand off nuclear material to its surrogates, including Hizbullah.  I worry that the deeply flawed and misleading National Intelligence Agency will make a preemptive attack against Iran more, not less likely, because it will weaken the case for sanctions, as it already has, and embolden Iran to move even more quickly toward developing nuclear weapons. I strongly prefer diplomacy and sanctions to a preemptive military strike.  That too is why I am so critical of the highly politicized and misleading National Intelligence Estimate. I am certainly not a cold warrior, that too is why I don’t want to see a nuclear Iran. A cold war with a nuclear Iran would be even more dangerous than the one we had with the Soviet Union, because of Iran's suicidal and apocalyptic leadership. 

So Gary Hart, my cards are on the table. Now let's see yours!

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1  |  Melvin Gilbert Jr. lavergne tn., Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
if Iran gets their nuke and is stupid enough to try using it on Israel then they deserve what they will get! Professor Dershowitz should remember that Israel is protected by GOD and HE has promised to protect HIS chosen people and the country of Israel ! Fear not for GOD is with you!!!
2  |  Guran Walker, Bronzewalia, Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
If Iran proceeds all the way to producing a nuclear weapon, it WILL be used regardless of consequences. That may not, by then, be appreciably worse than the culmination of matters that are getting out of hand now, in the ME and elsewhere. War is inevitable and since about 40 years ago it's been clear, the weapons of choice really do include nuclear, chemical and biological. It's not going to be pretty. Nor is the Civil War that already is breaking out Globally. Eating next of kin for survival becomes just a matter of - SURVIVAL. You have to wonder at the juvenile level of current debate.
3  |  elvira, Israel, Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
spot on.
4  |  omarA, Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
Once Iran aquires nuke weapons it will black mail the west, It will have the jocker card that can be used any where it wants.Israel will have to think many times before it can defend it self incase of an attack. Any comment by a senior Iranian officil could send the west's stock market up or down.All the arab country's will have to aquire nukes within a short time of Irans aquring it, abit like Pakistan and India. Not much people in the west understand Iran's mentality. Iran has to be stoped from getting nukes at any cost.
5  |  Evan Smith Salt Lake, UT, Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
I truly believe that the National Intelligence Estimate was politically motivated, and it did a great disservice in convincing the world to press on with UN sanctions against Iran. Thanks to this and other recent events I believe the world will be an extremely different place in 2015 or before. My heart goes out to the people of Israel as they are surrounded, and live in constant fear. Hopefully some closure will come soon to this situation.
6  |  Yishai ben Moshe, Toronto, Canada, Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
Applause, Professor. Weak international diplomacy has always been a major factor in the widening and deepening of conflict in this world. Unintended though the consequences of such dereliction may be, the results are certainly no less regrettable because the death and damage were not clearly foreseen. We must stop equating confrontation with provocation. And we must do it soon or risk adding to our growing list of tragic regrets. Shalom
7  |  samish, Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
Alan, I disagree with you about the idea that sanctions and diplomacy are better alternatives to preemptive strike. Diplomacy has not worked and it will not. I beleive that the case of a strike of Iran's nuclear facilities is even more desirable right now. Most Arabs leaders would object but they would breath a sight of relief to see fundamentalist Shiism be slowed in a region prone to religious sectarianism and for which their regimes are targeted. It would undermine the political structure of Iran itself, because Iranians are not war mongers, it is their theocratic regime.
8  |  Yuri, Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
The NIE Report was made to get the Administration out of any obligation to go against Mullah's of Iran alone. In additin, there are countries like Austria that openly break sanction and are Mullah's proxies in Europe. The far left also is in the pocket of Mullah's. Lock, stock and barrel. All determined to have Mullah's get their bomb.
9  |  Bruce Warner USA, Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
Ask yourself this question: Can Israel survive a "Pearl Harbor" style nuclear attack from Iran? Can you spell pre-emptive?
10  |  Bruce Warner USA, Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
The appeasement of Hitler in the 1930's gave us the Second World War in the 1940's. History repeats itself because the mistakes of the past are forgotten!
11  |  Bruce Warner USA, Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
It is erie how the events in Europe from 1938 thru December 7, 1941 are being parralled by the events in the Middle East exactly 70 years later from 2008 thru 2011.
12  |  john mackie, Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
it is precisely BECAUSE Iran has oil in abundance that it needs the weaponry to protect itself from those who covet it.... surrounded as it is, in an extremely dangerous part of the world. Multiple wars have been fought over this in the last 100 years. Israel's excuse for having nukes is that everybody hates the Jews. Which is also true.
13  |  Yakov, New Jersey, Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
I can't help thinking that Bush has made a deal with the Ayatollah. The deal consists of exchanging Iranian nukes for Iranian help in Iraq. If not granting Iran the nukes outright, then just quitting the game for now, until the end of Bush's term. This must have been the only way for Bush to get out of the noose.
14  |  Jo Ellen Davey Cohen Oak Park, IL, Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
Gary Hart, Al Gore and Jimmy Carter, as the worldwide champions of alternative energy, and as the vessels of hot air global warming, must lead by example: 1. redesign the gas guzzling Mercury motor on the private boat MONKEY BUSINESS, 2. retool the private jet engines to meet/exceed green standards, 3. reestablish the PLAINS PEANUT plantation production of organic oil for Palestinian lanterns. The three Amigos...put your money where your mouth is....
15  |  Eric NYC, Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
To those who doubt that diplomacy works, all I can say is look at Darfur, look at Bosnia, look at Israel, look at Munich(1938?). After looking at these and MANY other instances of diplomacy, how can you say diplomacy doesn't work? It works to fatten the coffers of arms dealers, and despots.
16  |  Avraham, Thursday Mar 06, 2008
Every basketball coach knows that the best defense is a strong offence: Said that, our main hope of defending ourselves from suicidal jihadists like Iran who are intent in enslaving mankind with their Bizarre ideas is to hasten their suicidal desires and destroy them now before they destroy us! G-d save us from our enemies and from any of our confused leaders. Avraham
17  |  anthony bheir, Thursday Mar 06, 2008
Who can stop the third World War. We must prepare for the inevitable. The America leadership will fail the people ,the West and the World. A change in Foreign Policy that promotes concessions to Terrorist states will lead to a perceived weakness by adversaries like Iran,Venezuela,China and Russia. They will extend their military globally and form an Alliance that will divide this world. Strong U.S leadership is critically important for a safe and peaceful world. Remember who struck first should be a call to all Americans since 9/11.Those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it.
18  |  Jon MacArthur, Thursday Mar 06, 2008
Iranians, whether the current leadership or expatriates in the US, firmly believe that their country has a right to equal footing in global affairs with the US, Russia, China, India, Pakistan and Europe. Nuclear weapons are an essential element. No amount of non-military coercion will change that course. The next real nuclear war will be on the Arabian pennisula.
19  |  AlanRockville USA, Thursday Mar 06, 2008
I respect Dershowitz.But we cannot under nor overestimate.There are 2 issues, nuclear power,the Bomb.Denying Iran the former will fan extremist flames.Latter must be dealt with by U.N. and moderate MiddleEast, saying former is OK, latter not.Offer reconciliation (Iran rightwing mistrusts the West for 50 years).Iran’s people will reject Ahmadinejad.Ayatollah is not insane enoght to not listen.War is too costly, please be rational.
20  |  ralph, Thursday Mar 06, 2008
how can we keep abreast of this continuing conversation and read what gary hart has to say for himself?
21  |  Clark Freese, Thursday Mar 06, 2008
While we need to recognize anothers right to self determinism. It ends however when it infringes on security. Both internal and external. It was great sport to attack Bush's intelligence apparatus until it agreed with you and started playing politics with iintelligence via the NIE. Now the pot wants to call the kettle black. Gary Hart was dubious when he was in office abd along with Dershowitz they both need to be taken with chunks of Salt.
22  |  Raoul, Thursday Mar 06, 2008
The world didn't believe, or preferred to look the other way, in the case of Hitler, with disastrous global results. And now we have a repetition of a similar scenario with far greater apocalyptic implications.
23  |  David Katcoff, Jericho, Vt, Thursday Mar 06, 2008
I always wondered what ever became of Gary "Monkey Business" Hart. After reading about his stupid allegations and dumb beliefs, I'm glad he faded away. Imagine the damage if that idiot became president! Russia today is a major ally of Iran, Syria, Hebollah and Hamas. Hart is a Jihad collaborator and a fool.
24  |  Barry NJ, Thursday Mar 06, 2008
It depends on whether the insanity of Iran is real or staged, they can if they use a nuclear missle perhaps kill (I hate to say it) 100,000 Jews. But their whole country will be annhilated: Israel has 100s of nuclear weapons w/ far more accurate delivery systems and some submarine based misslles as well.