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Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
Double Standard Watch: British intelligence smarter than US' - and than Gary Hart Posted by Alan M. Dershowitz
Comments: 48
Anyone who doubts that Iran is determined to develop deliverable nuclear weapons should not be in position of decision making or influence. The evidence is as clear as can be, despite the "fog of peace" artificially constructed by the recent National Intelligence Estimate issued by our government's collective intelligence agencies. It may be true, as the estimate concludes, that in 2003 the Iranian shifted from a single track approach to a duel track approach - from taking direct steps toward building the bomb to taking indirect steps that have both civilian and military applications. But it does not follow that either the goal of the program, or even its schedule, has changed significantly. As I demonstrated in a previous blog, nothing has really changed with regard to the Iranian nuclear threat since 2003 except that Iran is closer today than it was then to developing a nuclear bomb. Yet our intelligence community seems to have fallen for Iran's version of two-card monte. Either that, or they are deliberately trying to pull the wool over the eyes of the American public in order to discourage what they believed was a drum-beat for a preemptive attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. One prominent public figure who seems entirely willing to pull the wool over his own eyes, and those of his readers, is former senator and former presidential hopeful Gary Hart. Hart defends the National Intelligence Estimate and castigates me for questioning its Poliana-ish conclusion. He compares those who are concerned about Iran with old-time cold warriors who are trying to fight "the Cold War all over again." He went so far as to call my concern about Iran's nuclear ambitions "not only hysterical but almost catatonic" (He must mean "paranoid" since catatonics manifest their illness by immobility and inaction.) Well, now my concerns about Iran have been echoed by the British Parliaments' Foreign Affairs Committee, and the Chief United Nations nuclear inspector. Here is how the British Committee's chairman put it, following a visit to Iran and based on the extensive evidence received by the group: There is a strong possibility that Iran could establish a "breakout" nuclear weapons capability by 2015." A "breakout capability" is the ability to manufacture a nuclear device within a short period of time by virtue of its nonmilitary nuclear technical capabilities and assets.
Precisely what I, and other critics of the National Intelligence Estimate have been saying! Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the President of Iran, seems to agree. Last Friday he boasted that Iran "will have the final victory in the nuclear arena." This doesn't sound he's talking about a peaceful nuclear alternative energy source in his oil-soaked nation. Last week the chief United Nations nuclear inspection provided new evidence, including video from Iran's own military laboratories, showing work "not consistent with any application other than the development of a nuclear weapon." The Iranian representative shouted out that the new evidence consisted of "baseless fabrications." No one believed him. No one except Gary Hart, who has a clear conflict of interest when it comes to the Iranian nuclear program. For years now, Hart has been a mouthpiece for the former Soviet Union, especially in the area of alternative energy. He is a founder of the United States-Russia investment fund. It is Russia which exports much of the material necessary for Irans nuclear program. If Iran were forced to end its nuclear program, Russia would suffer and so would Gary Hart. Despite this obvious conflict of interest, which Hart failed to disclose, he has the temerity to accuse others of harboring hidden agendas. This is what he wrote: The real question is this: What is Professor Dershowitz's agenda here? Many bloggers automatically assumed is has to do with Israel. But Professor Dershowitz does not say so and, having known and respected him for many years, I presume if he is angry because the intelligence report undermines his broader purpose, he would have the courage to simply say so.
Until he does, one must shake one's head in sadness at a fine mind longing for the Cold War, or for a new villain to justify a wrong-headed empirial militancy in the Middle East, or who knows what.
Perhaps now is the time for everyone to put their cards on the table.
Well my cards are on the table. Yes, I worry that an Iran with nuclear weapons, that it has already threatened to use against Israel, would become the first nation in the mid-East to use its nuclear arsenal, not only against Israel but against American interests. I worry that if Iran gets the bomb, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other mid-East nations will feel it necessary to go nuclear as well. I worry that Iran may hand off nuclear material to its surrogates, including Hizbullah. I worry that the deeply flawed and misleading National Intelligence Agency will make a preemptive attack against Iran more, not less likely, because it will weaken the case for sanctions, as it already has, and embolden Iran to move even more quickly toward developing nuclear weapons. I strongly prefer diplomacy and sanctions to a preemptive military strike. That too is why I am so critical of the highly politicized and misleading National Intelligence Estimate. I am certainly not a cold warrior, that too is why I dont want to see a nuclear Iran. A cold war with a nuclear Iran would be even more dangerous than the one we had with the Soviet Union, because of Iran's suicidal and apocalyptic leadership. So Gary Hart, my cards are on the table. Now let's see yours!
1 |
Melvin Gilbert Jr. lavergne tn.,
Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
if Iran gets their nuke and is stupid enough to try using it on Israel then they deserve what they will get! Professor Dershowitz should remember that Israel is protected by GOD and HE has promised to protect HIS chosen people and the country of Israel ! Fear not for GOD is with you!!!
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Guran Walker, Bronzewalia,
Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
If Iran proceeds all the way to producing a nuclear weapon, it WILL be used regardless of consequences. That may not, by then, be appreciably worse than the culmination of matters that are getting out of hand now, in the ME and elsewhere. War is inevitable and since about 40 years ago it's been clear, the weapons of choice really do include nuclear, chemical and biological. It's not going to be pretty. Nor is the Civil War that already is breaking out Globally. Eating next of kin for survival becomes just a matter of - SURVIVAL. You have to wonder at the juvenile level of current debate.
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elvira, Israel,
Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
spot on.
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omarA,
Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
Once Iran aquires nuke weapons it will black mail the west, It will have the jocker card that can be used any where it wants.Israel will have to think many times before it can defend it self incase of an attack. Any comment by a senior Iranian officil could send the west's stock market up or down.All the arab country's will have to aquire nukes within a short time of Irans aquring it, abit like Pakistan and India. Not much people in the west understand Iran's mentality. Iran has to be stoped from getting nukes at any cost.
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Evan Smith Salt Lake, UT,
Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
I truly believe that the National Intelligence Estimate was politically motivated, and it did a great disservice in convincing the world to press on with UN sanctions against Iran. Thanks to this and other recent events I believe the world will be an extremely different place in 2015 or before. My heart goes out to the people of Israel as they are surrounded, and live in constant fear. Hopefully some closure will come soon to this situation.
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Yishai ben Moshe, Toronto, Canada,
Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
Applause, Professor. Weak international diplomacy has always been a major factor in the widening and deepening of conflict in this world. Unintended though the consequences of such dereliction may be, the results are certainly no less regrettable because the death and damage were not clearly foreseen. We must stop equating confrontation with provocation. And we must do it soon or risk adding to our growing list of tragic regrets. Shalom
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samish,
Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
Alan,
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Yuri,
Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
The NIE Report was made to get the Administration out of any obligation to go against Mullah's of Iran alone. In additin, there are countries like Austria that openly break sanction and are Mullah's proxies in Europe. The far left also is in the pocket of Mullah's. Lock, stock and barrel. All determined to have Mullah's get their bomb.
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Bruce Warner USA,
Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
Ask yourself this question: Can Israel survive a "Pearl Harbor" style nuclear attack from Iran? Can you spell pre-emptive?
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Bruce Warner USA,
Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
The appeasement of Hitler in the 1930's gave us the Second World War in the 1940's. History repeats itself because the mistakes of the past are forgotten!
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Bruce Warner USA,
Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
It is erie how the events in Europe from 1938 thru December 7, 1941 are being parralled by the events in the Middle East exactly 70 years later from 2008 thru 2011.
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john mackie,
Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
it is precisely BECAUSE Iran has oil in abundance that it needs the weaponry to protect itself from those who covet it.... surrounded as it is, in an extremely dangerous part of the world. Multiple wars have been fought over this in the last 100 years. Israel's excuse for having nukes is that everybody hates the Jews. Which is also true.
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Yakov, New Jersey,
Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
I can't help thinking that Bush has made a deal with the Ayatollah. The deal consists of exchanging Iranian nukes for Iranian help in Iraq. If not granting Iran the nukes outright, then just quitting the game for now, until the end of Bush's term. This must have been the only way for Bush to get out of the noose.
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Jo Ellen Davey Cohen Oak Park, IL,
Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
Gary Hart, Al Gore and Jimmy Carter, as the worldwide champions of alternative energy,
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Eric NYC,
Wednesday Mar 05, 2008
To those who doubt that diplomacy works, all I can say is look at Darfur, look at Bosnia, look at Israel, look at Munich(1938?). After looking at these and MANY other instances of diplomacy, how can you say diplomacy doesn't work? It works to fatten the coffers of arms dealers, and despots.
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Avraham,
Thursday Mar 06, 2008
Every basketball coach knows that the best defense is a strong offence: Said that, our main hope of defending ourselves from suicidal jihadists like Iran who are intent in enslaving mankind with their Bizarre ideas is to hasten their suicidal desires and destroy them now before they destroy us! G-d save us from our enemies and from any of our confused leaders. Avraham
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anthony bheir,
Thursday Mar 06, 2008
Who can stop the third World War. We must prepare for the inevitable. The America leadership will fail the people ,the West and the World. A change in Foreign Policy that promotes concessions to Terrorist states will lead to a perceived weakness by adversaries like Iran,Venezuela,China and Russia. They will extend their military globally and form an Alliance that will divide this world.
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Jon MacArthur,
Thursday Mar 06, 2008
Iranians, whether the current leadership or expatriates in the US, firmly believe that their country has a right to equal footing in global affairs with the US, Russia, China, India, Pakistan and Europe. Nuclear weapons are an essential element. No amount of non-military coercion will change that course. The next real nuclear war will be on the Arabian pennisula.
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AlanRockville USA,
Thursday Mar 06, 2008
I respect Dershowitz.But we cannot under nor overestimate.There are 2 issues, nuclear power,the Bomb.Denying Iran the former will fan extremist flames.Latter must be dealt with by U.N. and moderate MiddleEast, saying former is OK, latter not.Offer reconciliation (Iran rightwing mistrusts the West for 50 years).Irans people will reject Ahmadinejad.Ayatollah is not insane enoght to not listen.War is too costly, please be rational.
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ralph,
Thursday Mar 06, 2008
how can we keep abreast of this continuing conversation and read what gary hart has to say for himself?
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Clark Freese,
Thursday Mar 06, 2008
While we need to recognize anothers right to self determinism. It ends however when it infringes on security. Both internal and external. It was great sport to attack Bush's intelligence apparatus until it agreed with you and started playing politics with iintelligence via the NIE. Now the pot wants to call the kettle black. Gary Hart was dubious when he was in office abd along with Dershowitz they both need to be taken with chunks of Salt.
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Raoul,
Thursday Mar 06, 2008
The world didn't believe, or preferred to look the other way, in the case of Hitler, with disastrous global results. And now we have a repetition of a similar scenario with far greater apocalyptic implications.
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David Katcoff, Jericho, Vt,
Thursday Mar 06, 2008
I always wondered what ever became of Gary "Monkey Business" Hart. After reading about his stupid allegations and dumb beliefs, I'm glad he faded away. Imagine the damage if that idiot became president!
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Barry NJ,
Thursday Mar 06, 2008
It depends on whether the insanity of Iran is real or staged, they can if they use a nuclear missle perhaps kill (I hate to say it) 100,000 Jews. But their whole country will be annhilated: Israel has 100s of nuclear weapons w/ far more accurate delivery systems and some submarine based misslles as well.
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Ned Terini,
Thursday Mar 06, 2008
Do you really think Iranian leaders are that stupid to invade Israel? The people in charge of the country are bunch of thieves who dont do anything to jeopardize their control of power. All the tough talks by demagogue Iranian leaders are for naïve masses who can be entertained by hollow slogans.
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Mark, NY,
Thursday Mar 06, 2008
There is no such thing as US leadership. The US is as or more corrupt as any other country, never won a war and not capable to stop terrorism.
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Carl Sesar USA,
Thursday Mar 06, 2008
Predicting 2015 when Iran'll have the bomb is nonsense. They'll have it by US election time this year. No? So what? A preemptive strike settles the matter. But Israel will be no more right quick, bomb or no bomb, when Judea and Samaria are ethnically cleansed of Jews and Jewish life, and Ahmadinejad's and Dersh's dearly beloved terrorist "Palestinian state" is planted there instead.
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michael,
Friday Mar 07, 2008
I disagree with you that sanctions and diplomacy are better alternatives to preemptive strike.
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michael,
Friday Mar 07, 2008
One of the reason Iran is building a nuclear arsenal is that they have the money. Money is no object for Iran. They financed Arafat (remember the boat that was seized ?), they finance Hizbollah and Hamas, they help Syria, etc. My suggestion, when you do attack destroy also their oil refineries because again the problem with Iran is that they have too much money. Make it so that the only thing they will be able to export is pistachios !
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Bruce Warner USA,
Friday Mar 07, 2008
Luke 21:20
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Carl Sesar USA,
Friday Mar 07, 2008
Predicting 2015 when Iran'll have the bomb is nonsense. They'll have it by US election time this year. No? So what? A preemptive strike settles the matter. But Israel will be no more right quick, bomb or no bomb, when Judea and Samaria are ethnically cleansed of Jews and Jewish life, and Ahmadinejad's and Dersh's dearly beloved terrorist "Palestinian state" is planted there instead.
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Bruce Warner USA,
Friday Mar 07, 2008
Can you imagine what this world would be like today if Hitler or Japan had a nuclear bomb in 1941? Here we go again, only this time it will be a lot worse!
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Levs. Suva Fiji,
Friday Mar 07, 2008
The Americans choosing to go to war against Iraq has made the Iranian stronger. Anyway the recent pleading by the Iranian Ambassador to the UN ,to stop Israel carrying out a pre-emptive strike on Irans nuclear facility is evidence enough of Iran trying to protect its ugly baby(Nuclear ambition).History shows that people,countries,kings,terrorist have tried and trying to wipe out the nation of Israel but hae failed and they will again fail.
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Juan Cassidy,
Friday Mar 07, 2008
Alan Derkowitz is just a mouthpiece and one egotistical person. Anything he says we are supposed to take as defacto based on his shield of Harvard ( which has long tired of his blowhardness and overuse of their good name ).
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Peter Canada,
Friday Mar 07, 2008
Wikipedia: Patients with catatonia may experience an extreme loss of motor ability or constant hyperactive motor activity. Catatonic patients will sometimes hold rigid poses for hours and will ignore any external stimuli. Patients with catatonic excitement can die of exhaustion if not treated.
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Michael Parsont, Fort Lee, New Jersey, USA,
Friday Mar 07, 2008
In the same vein as Professor Dershowitz corrected Gary Hart's misuse of the word "catatonic" I wish to point out that the child heroine in the novel by Eleanor Hodgman Porter was named Pollyanna -- not "Poliana", as it appeared in Professor Dershowitz's brilliant article.
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JKF/Ott/Cnd,
Friday Mar 07, 2008
Come on everyone, wake up to the new reality. A few days ago Ahmedj.. flew from Theran to Baghdad through US controlled airspace, and was not shot down. In the past US policy was to negate airspace use to its enemies. So that tells the entire story. The price was for the Iranian proxi (Mehdi army/Sadr's terrorists) to renew its ceasefire for another 6 months. Essentially, a deal is underway.....
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michael,
Friday Mar 07, 2008
One of the reason Iran is building a nuclear arsenal is that they have the money. Money is no object for Iran. They financed Arafat (remember the boat that was seized ?), they finance Hizbollah and Hamas, they help Syria, etc. My suggestion, when you do attack destroy also their oil refineries because again the problem with Iran is that they have too much money. Make it so that the only thing they will be able to export is pistachios !
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michael,
Friday Mar 07, 2008
I disagree with you that sanctions and diplomacy are better alternatives to preemptive strike.
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Vesper Quaffen,
Friday Mar 07, 2008
Think, WW 2, the German Heavy Water Plant in Norway, the Allies knew the Germans would use the bomb if they had it , therefore they pulled out all the stops to bomb the heavy water plant in Norway. There were a lot of Norwegians put at risk by this operation and many Norwegian schoolchildren on the ferry that was blown up, were drowned when the ferry was blown up, but the Allied High Command gave this top priority. If Churchill, Roosevelt, or Eisenhower was still around, the nuclear sites in Iran would all have been rubble several years ago,
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Bobby Peace, Chicago,
Friday Mar 07, 2008
The Brits were wrong on the danger Iraq posed. Second, so what if Iran gets nuclear weapons? We can pretend every nation that doesn't like what Israel does is the Boogeyman, but Iraq has its own survival interests. But, I forgot! The Iranians are soooo different than Israelis and Americans; an appeal to xenophobia is always good for starting an unnecessary war. Iraq. Iraq. Iraq.
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Cohen, NYC,
Friday Mar 07, 2008
People are paranoid about Iran. Before Pakistan & India acquire nuke, everyone cried foul, it's a dangerous world! The world will be awashed with Nuke again. Not really, we are living with nuked India & Pakistan. Even Iran goes nuke, I don;t think dynamics will change. Getting few nukes, will not change the geo-political tantra in that region. We are obsessed and transfixed with Nuclear Iran, trust me, it would not be more dangerous than we are now. Lets bring peace and hope, the most vital ingredient to live as a good neighbor.
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Vinegarhill, Spain.,
Friday Mar 07, 2008
Vesper Quaffen how can you equate WW 2 with the attempt by Iran to develop nuclear energy for domestic purposes? You have an amazing imagination!
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harvey berman boston,
Friday Mar 07, 2008
Why is it so difficult for people to understand that nuclear war heads in the hands of imbalanced and narcissistic leaders can only lead to potential disaster for the entire world.? Professor Dershowitz understands the threat to all humankind.
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Bruce Warner USA,
Friday Mar 07, 2008
Just prior to Hitler's Germany invasion of Russia, Hitler flew to Stalingrad and signed a "peace treaty" with Stalin. Then Hitler flew home and immediately began making war preparations to invade Russia while Stalin felt safe and made no war preparations. Get it?
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paul david swinford Christian truck driver,
Friday Mar 07, 2008
Gary Hart is deaf idiot. He can't hear a word that comes out of the mouth of Ahmadinejad.
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Marco, Italy,
Tuesday Jan 13, 2009
I support Israel but if you live by the sword, you die by the sword. This situation is unsustainable in the long run. Israel will not continue to exist I feel, because the hate that surrounds is far too great. You see, army generals, professional killers, and terrorists, cannot bring peace, no way. Unfortunately, the Arab Palestinian culture needs to produce a man of peace, like Ghandi, who like he did, will create an evolved dialogue with Israel. Unfortunately this is not happening. Israel should learn from India - they did not retaliate against Pakistan in all these years and it was better.
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antonio campanelli napoli italy,
Sunday Jan 18, 2009
Dear friends from Israel,
I really apologize about the commentings of some european newspapers and televisions about the war.
Many people understand now that Israel is not the devil,and has got many reasons for her behaving.
I 'm 50 and when i was young i was protesting against Israel but I've been very much shooked,few years ago, when a 18 years old girl ,from palestina,exploded in a discoteque of Israel,killing many other youngs like her.
There i understood that we must also to consider that Israel has got her reasons,and we must support in Europe to consider both the reasons
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