Sunday Dec 28, 2008
Posted by Ira Sharkansky
As I was drafting this note, I heard the first news of Israel's attack on Gaza. It had to come sooner or later. Two days ago Hamas and its friends fired 80 missiles and mortars toward Israeli civilians. There are extensive casualties in Gaza, as well as the ritual of protests and calls for international intervention, and threats of massive retaliation from Gaza.
When this will be over, we shall still share uncertainty and worse from the economic crisis that I was beginning to write about.
It was depressing to watch the fall of bonds and banks in September. Now it is even more depressing to read about America's indebtedness to China, and what it may mean for the world as we know it. The trigger of this catastrophe may have been free houses for those unable to pay, but it was compounded by money schemes too complex for those who invented them and those who invested in them. Now we read that the huge bubble was financed by the Chinese. According to several commentators, they enticed Americans to overspend for cheap goods, and then bought many of the bonds that financed America's debts. The Chinese hold a mortgage on America. Will they be content to accept re-financing at reasonable rates, or will they demand an early return of their capital? If the latter, we can expect political as well as economic upheaval.
Monday Dec 08, 2008
Posted by Ira Sharkansky
If I may be so bold as to issue some advice to President-Elect Barack Obama, it is to be cautious in the extreme about two issues on his agenda: Afghanistan and Israel-Palestine.
His campaign rhetoric included proclamations that Afghanistan is "the right war" "It's time to heed the call...for more troops...and "I'd send at least two or three additional combat brigades to Afghanistan."
Since then, Obama has been cautioned by a variety of experts. There are no clear signals as to his intentions as president.
Thursday Dec 04, 2008
Posted by Ira Sharkansky
After 60 years as an independent state, Israel is far from a united society.
We should expect nothing else. The Arabs are 20 percent of the population, and the Jews have come from diverse cultures. Some Diaspora communities existed for more than two thousand years. Migrants and their children have included the overtly secular and intensely religious. Among the religious are those who view the State of Israel as a creation with theological significance, and others who see it as an affront to the Almighty.
Currently the Jews of Israel are wrestling with their diversities. One story comes out of the tragedy at the Chabad Center in Mumbai. Another is still evolving around a contested building in Hebron.
Wednesday Dec 03, 2008
Posted by Ira Sharkansky
The once mighty Israel Labor Party has descended into a deep crisis, and may even be twitching in its final moments. It led the Jewish community of Palestine and then Israel unchallenged from before statehood until the election of 1977. It came as close as any party to winning an absolute majority in a national election when it gained 56 seats in the 120 member Knesset chosen in 1969.
Latest polls show it winning as few as seven or even six seats in the coming election. There are conversations that could join what remains of Labor with the Kadima party. The party may go the way of the Wachovia Bank, that is also poised to disappear into a merger meant to save something from annihilation.
Sunday Nov 02, 2008
Posted by Ira Sharkansky
While the American election is reaching a boil, Israeli elections are beginning to simmer. We go to the polls to select local mayors and councils on November 11, and again on February 10 to select a new Knesset.
Israeli polls are showing a close race between Binyamin Netanyahu's Likud and Tzipi Livni's Kadima, with Ehud Barak's Labor in danger of falling into the dustbin. Neither of the major parties seem likely to get more than a quarter of the vote, so there will be a lot of work after the election to put together a coalition.
Sunday Oct 12, 2008
Posted by Ira Sharkansky
No officials have declared an end to the second intifada, which began in September 2000. It is reasonable to conclude, however, that it has petered out with another catastrophic loss for the Palestinians.
Estimates are that more than 5,300 Palestinians have died, along with 1,100 Israelis, and 64 foreigners caught in the cross-fire.
As with much that deals with the Palestinians, the numbers are not precise. Also, it is not clear how many died as the result of fighting among Palestinians, and how many died while making or transporting munitions.
Thursday Oct 02, 2008
Posted by Ira Sharkansky
We often know what politicians are saying, and sometimes what they are doing. It is far more rare to know why. It is easy to ascribe motives, but usually impossible to be certain of them.
I thought of this classic problem when reading the headline in Yedioth Aharonot on the eve of the New Year. In what was described as a farewell interview, Ehud Olmert spoke of withdrawing from almost all of the West Bank, from the Golan Heights, and Jerusalem. The headline did not say so, but as I looked for the entire interview I presumed that he meant withdrawal from only part of Jerusalem.
Sunday Jul 06, 2008
Posted by Ira Sharkansky
There are signs of a political earthquake in Israel.
They have nothing to do with charges of corruption against the prime minister, or the maneuvering of aspirants to seek advantage in the expected collapse of Olmert's government, or the election that will follow it.
The shock appears in comments of the national peacemaker, President Shimon Peres. He said that there is no chance of peace with the Palestinians.
Monday Jun 30, 2008
Posted by Ira Sharkansky
The government has completed one decision with high emotional costs, and it is coming up to another that will be even more difficult.
It has decided to accept a deal with Hizbullah. Israel will release a terrorist responsible for the deaths in 1979 of two young children, their father and another adult, as well as some Hizbullah fighters captured during the fighting in 2006, several dead bodies and an unknown number of Palestinians. In exchange, Israel will receive what is likely to be the bodies of two Israeli soldiers captured in 2006, and some information about an airman who parachuted into Lebanon in 1986, and subsequently disappeared.
Sunday Jun 15, 2008
Posted by Ira Sharkansky
For all major decisions, including perhaps an invasion of Gaza, Olmert is waiting on the cross-examination of the witness who testified to some activities that look like deception, violation of duties, and perhaps money laundering, tax evasion, and acceptance of bribes. That witness seems flakey, and sometimes worse. He may fall apart in a cross examination.
If that happens, the electoral calculations of Kadima, Labor, and Likud may go back to where they were some time ago.
There is no reliable way of concluding what is the importance of each of the elements causing a delay with respect to a major operation in Gaza. Virtually everyone is saying that it is inevitable. Virtually no one is saying what form it will take, or that it will happen soon.
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Window on Israel
Hebrew University Political Science professor evaluates the latest happenings in Israel.
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Recent Comments
Laine Frajberg Montreal: Response to John R #10,
Why not set an example John and return the southwest to Mexico which Pres. Polk STOLE fron Mexico in 1847?You Americans called it "manifest destiny".The rest of the world called it THEFT.
Till then you have no right to criticize Israel for taking-and keeping- land in a DEFENSIVE WAR.Now go away!
Laine Frajberg Montreal: Response to EdB #1,
Hey Ed,didn't your country steal northern Georgia from the Cherokee in 1838?You did this even though the Cherokee were at peace with you and your own Supreme Court declared that the Cherokee had a right to retain their land.Didn't make any difference.General Winfield Scott expelled them anyway-and over a quarter died on the way to their new homes.Contrast this with Israel,which
took east Jerusalem after being attacked by Jordan on June 5,1967-so indeed Israel's Jews have every right to build anywhere they want in Jerusalem.
David USA: Just when did Gilo become part of Jerusalem? Surely not at the time of David hamelech. When and by whose idea was Gilo "Jerusalemized "? Pretty soon Maale Adumin will also be Jerusalem. And why not Ariel ?? The sky is the limit when it comes to gerrymandering. (For instance, Montreal could become New York just at some poltician's say-so, even if Canada objects).
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