Not a typical week in Israel

What's on our agenda this week?

• Israel's 60th anniversary.
• Intelligence officials are saying that various Palestinian groups are planning a major incidence of violence to spoil the celebration.
• George W. Bush is scheduled to come. We'll have to stay off the roads.
• Condoleezza Rice is already here, demanding that we be nicer to the Palestinians.
• Palestinians are seeking international help for their insistence that Israel recognize the pre-1967 borders as the starting point of any decisions about borders between the two countries. They are also saying that Israel does not allow the Palestinians to acquire enough weapons in order to show that they can govern themselves; and that Israel is wrong in coming into their cities in order to seize people it suspects of wrongdoing.

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The power of external factors

It is tempting to yearn for the good old days of warfare, when the forces of one state fought against the forces of another, until those leading the governments decided that they had enough. Most fighters did what they were told, and few journalists or non-governmental organizations muddied the issues with their pictures and demands.
 
Current wars are complicated by so many players, and more confusion than clarity in the nature of the conflicts, and what it may take to end them.
 
Perhaps the geniuses directing American combat in Afghanistan or Iraq can figure out who they are fighting and how to end it.

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Better late than never

The Secretary General of the United Nations has condemned Palestinians for directing their rockets against Israeli civilians, and Israel for a disproportionate response.
 
Both condemnations are appropriate. Israel's response is disproportionately light. Seven years ago the IDF should have begun sending one artillery shell into a neighborhood of Gaza for every missile that landed in an Israeli settlement.
 
Better late than never.
 
The operation began with the killing of a student at Sapir College, alongside Sderot, and the use of more accurate and powerful missiles that began landing in the city of Ashkelon. Those missiles came to Gaza from the international market, through the Sinai and nominal Egyptian control of Gaza's southern borders.

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Prospects for Palestinian state gloomy

Two groups of Israelis should be celebrating the problems of their antagonists. There is not necessarily an overlap between them, but the coincidence warrants some discussion.
 
The largest group of Israelis that can celebrate is that which does not want a Palestinian state. The Palestinians have created two tiny enclaves, pretty much at war with one another.
 
The Gaza portion, under the control of Hamas, seems inclined to attach itself to Egypt for supplies, but the Egyptians are showing traditional coolness. They have erected one kind of barrier or another between themselves and the Palestinians of Gaza since 1948; and now the antipathy is made even greater by the Hamas regime and its affinity with the Muslim Brotherhood. It is those chaps we frequently see in courtroom cages while being tried for one or another kind of rebellion against the Egyptian government.

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Ceasefire? What ceasefire?

"Wow!" is the only response possible to a headline from news.walla.co.il. "Fatah Threatens: We Will End the Cease Fire with Israel."
 
I had not noticed that there was a cease fire.
 
It did not seem like a cease fire when a gang of Palestinians, members of one of the several security forces supposedly directed by Fatah President Mahmoud Abbas, killed two Israeli hikers three weeks ago. Nor is it a cease fire that brings the IDF into cities of the West Bank, presumably controlled by Fatah, to deal with people wanted for violence against Israeli civilians.
 
Further down in the same article was the news that Abbas was threatening to resign as President of the Palestine National Authority, and end the peace process if Israel did not stop attacking fellow Palestinians in Gaza.
 
Does this mean that Israel should accept more than 50 missiles per day fired at its civilians, and not take any action?
 
Yesterday there was a report that Abbas complained to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and said that President Bush's dream of peace in the Middle East was in danger because of Israeli attacks. The report, from Palestinian sources, said that the Secretary of State would pressure the Israelis to stop the attacks.

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Virtual negotiations

I am ambivalent about writing this note.
 
One reason is that I might be wrong.
 
Another reason is that, whether I am right or wrong, or even partly right, what follows may add to the reputation of Jews as being slippery and somewhat deceitful.
 
Part of me says that is all right. Jewish history has taught us to use our brains to avoid trouble. Israel's condition is not enviable. Our enemies are vicious. By comparison, slippery and deceitful are admirable qualities.
 
My purpose is to explain, to myself and others, what is happening in the peace process.

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Arguing in favor of settlements

Once again American officials are pressing Israelis to limit the construction of housing for Jews over the pre-1967 border, and to dismantle existing settlements, especially the "illegal" ones established without the approval of the Israeli government. Without those actions, according to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and others, Israel will not build confidence among the Palestinians. The lack of Palestinian confidence will threaten the peace process.

Some time ago, an American friend asked me to summarize for him the arguments in favor of the settlements.

There are no good general arguments. The devil is in the details. In my view, Israel had a right to settle, if only to pressure Palestinians and other Arabs who refused for years after 1967 to negotiate the future with Israel. Some settlements are too large and established to consider giving up. Holding others is more difficult to justify.

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