Why the stalemate?

Headline in Friday's Ha'aretz:  "Abu Mazen [Mahmoud Abbas] is losing hope: 'I sense that Netanyahu has not changed since 1996'"
 
A headline on an inside page in the same edition: "Paralysis at the summit of coordination between the government and the territories." That story goes on to say that things are not happening in the policy to advance "economic peace" on account of the failure of Israeli government to make appointments to key positions in the program.
 
Elsewhere in the news we hear that negotiations about freeing Gilad Schalit are moving at the speed of a crippled snail. International donors are complaining that Gazans are still living amid the rubble because Israel will not open the borders to the supplies and equipment that their contributions will provide.
 
Let me offer explanations for these disparate items, summed up in some pithy epigrams:

• There is no free lunch in international relations
• You screw us, we'll screw you
• "Do unto others as you would have them do unto you" may be a spiritual ideal, but the more popular norm in international politics is the simpler "Do unto others."

Israel can live well enough without solving the problem of Palestine. The Palestinians may pride themselves in their willingness to die for their national cause, but they have committed national suicide. There will be no Palestinian state as long as key factions persist with the dreams of turning back the clock to 1967, to 1947, or to the mid-19th century before Jews began coming to this area.
 
I perceive that Netanyahu has changed since 1996. He appears to be wiser, and more skilled in expressing what he demands as conditions for moving forward with a peace process.
 
Abu Mazen's problem is that he has not changed. From the information available to the public, I see no signs of flexibility in his position. No matter what Israel has offered, it is not enough.

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Political aggression and its consequences

Excerpts from an official United Nations summary of the Human Rights Council resolution on the Goldstone Report:

. . . while the Israeli Government sought to portray its operations as a response to rocket attacks in the exercise of its right to self defence, the Israeli plan had been directed, at least in part, at the people of Gaza as a whole ... the treatment of many civilians detained or killed while trying to surrender [is] one manifestation of the way in which the effective rules of engagement, standard operating procedures and instructions to the troops on the ground appeared to have been framed to create an environment in which due regard for civilian lives and basic human dignity was replaced with a disregard for basic international humanitarian law.... The destruction of food supply installations, water sanitation systems, concrete factories and residential houses had been the result of a deliberate and systematic policy by the Israeli armed forces and not because those objects had presented a military threat ... other Israeli activities, particularly in Jerusalem, including ... limits to Palestinian access to properties and holy sites based on national origin, religion, sex, age or other grounds ... a grave violation of the Palestinian people's civil, political, economic, social and cultural rights ... Israeli violations of human rights in occupied East Jerusalem, particularly the confiscation of lands and properties, the demolishing of houses, the construction and expansion of settlements, the continuing construction of the separation wall built in part on land Israel occupied in the 1967 war, and the continuous digging and excavation works in and around Al-Aqsa mosque and its vicinity.... The Council demanded that Israel allow Palestinian citizens and worshippers unhindered access to their properties and religious sites in the occupied Palestinian territory, cease immediately all digging and excavations beneath and around the mosque, and refrain from any acts may endanger the structure or change the nature of Christian and Islamic holy sites."

What to do?

An obvious option is to persuade friendly and neutral governments that the resolution is one-sided, distorted or false, and a threat against Israel's elementary right to defend itself. Israel will work with its friends to assure that other United Nations forums, the courts and governments of individual countries do not respond to the Human Rights Council resolution with any concrete actions against Israel, its citizens, officials, or soldiers.

The most obvious falsehood is the claim that Israel is digging and excavating in, around, or beneath the Al-Aqsa mosque. The closest Israeli excavations are outside the large elevated area on which the mosque sits. The one-sided nature of the resolution is evident in that 10 out of 11 paragraphs deal with Israel's alleged violations, while only a "by the way" paragraph deals with allegations about Hamas:

(The Report) also found that Palestinian armed groups caused terror within Israel's civilian population through the launch of thousands of rockets and mortars into Israel since April 2001, determining that both sides may thus have committed serious war crimes and possible crimes against humanity."

Some Israeli politicians are blaming the resolution on the lack of sufficient efforts by Israel to explain its actions. More and better explanation is their solution.

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The same old Middle East

Iran is again putting several members of the persecuted Bahai faith on trial, this time on charges of attempting to destabilize the country on behalf of Israel.

In Gaza, 30 people were killed and more than 100 wounded in a battle in and around a mosque between Hamas and Jund Ansar Allah, a group said to be inspired by al-Qaida.
 
Nervous Jews are already fearing that the Obama administration will buy into Hamas's story: that it's really a moderate organization, concerned with keeping the extremists from gaining power in Gaza.
 
The Gaza dust-up is one more indication that the Palestinians are a long way from being a nation. While disputes over doctrine mark some conflicts, others are between factions defined by family and village. They all have a substantial "us against them" component.

When tensions peak, the men (and some of the women) reach for their guns and knives. The latest clash involved machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades. One of the leaders killed himself with a vest packed with explosives, also killing a mediator who came in an effort to stop the fighting.
 
Among the dead is an 11 year old girl.
 
Human rights groups have not accused either side of overreaction.

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Despite the quiet, peace is not on the horizon

Both the West Bank and Gaza have been quiet recently. An occasional rocket has come from Gaza, there have been roadside explosives planted near the fence and some firefights along the border. Several Israeli soldiers have been punished for falling asleep on guard duty.

Attacks in the West Bank have been small-scale and mostly unsuccessful, judged to be the actions of enraged or unstable individuals not connected with organizations.

There has been more violence among Palestinians organizations that between Palestinians and Israel, and more Israelis have suffered from crime, domestic violence and traffic accidents.

The grass isn't greener on Hamas's side of the fence

Marathon efforts to free captive Israeli soldier Gilad Schalit have failed. According to Israel, Hamas hardened its conditions and withdrew concessions they had accepted earlier.

Perhaps the campaign mounted by the Schalit family backfired. The indications of wide support among Israelis for freeing prisoners "with blood on their hands" may have led Hamas to refuse compromise, or even to increase their demands. Hamas denies those charges however,  and blames Israel for the failure of negotiations.

Gilad's father Noam Schalit blames Olmert.

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Considering the aftermath

Gaza did not fix everything. Our part of the world is still upside down.
 
Hamas fighters are strutting on the main streets with their weapons, while their leaders proclaim victory from underground shelters.
 
Like Hassan Nasrallah, their counterpart in Lebanon, they may stay underground for the indefinite future. Perhaps they fear Israel if they peek out to the sunlight, or dare hold a victory rally in the open. Or they may fear the people of Gaza, faced with the rubble of wild promises.

What about the propaganda war?

The IDF has destroyed a considerable part of Hamas facilities, its munitions, and the homes of its leaders. It has killed more than 750 people, and injured more than 2,500.
 
What about the propaganda war?
 
Israeli officials, as well as countless Jews and other friends explain the IDF's actions. They may convince those already committed to Israel. They cannot convince those committed to the Palestinian narrative. The pictures and statistics make it difficult to reach people in the middle, including those who seldom pay attention to Israel, but are revolted by disproportionate death and destruction.
 
Israeli sources note the practice of Hamas to use human shields for their evil work, and to delight in publicity given to pictures of dead women and children. Media friendly to the Palestinians have shown films from years ago as if they were current.

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A change of tune for Peres?

There are signs of a political earthquake in Israel.
 
They have nothing to do with charges of corruption against the prime minister, or the maneuvering of aspirants to seek advantage in the expected collapse of Olmert's government, or the election that will follow it.
 
The shock appears in comments of the national peacemaker, President Shimon Peres. He said that there is no chance of peace with the Palestinians.

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From one crisis to another

One definition of a good agreement is that no partner really likes it. That pretty much sums up how Israel and Hamas are viewing the terms of a cease fire for Gaza.

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Hamas has a suicide wish

Hamas is now claiming responsibility for nine attacks that killed 26 Israelis from 2002 to 2005. 
 
Hamas says that it has kept quiet about its role in these attacks until now "for security reasons." Other organizations claimed responsibility for the attacks at the time. Occasionally several groups boast about the same deed, and it may not be clear who really participated.
 
What can we learn from this latest revelation?
 
That an organization that engaged in suicide bombings has a wish for suicide.
 
Other indications come from each of the homemade rockets, mortar shells and katusha missiles imported from Iran through the sieve-like Egyptian control of Gaza's southern border that Hamas is firing toward Israel.

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