Sunday Dec 28, 2008
Posted by Ira Sharkansky
As I was drafting this note, I heard the first news of Israel's attack on Gaza. It had to come sooner or later. Two days ago Hamas and its friends fired 80 missiles and mortars toward Israeli civilians. There are extensive casualties in Gaza, as well as the ritual of protests and calls for international intervention, and threats of massive retaliation from Gaza.
When this will be over, we shall still share uncertainty and worse from the economic crisis that I was beginning to write about.
It was depressing to watch the fall of bonds and banks in September. Now it is even more depressing to read about America's indebtedness to China, and what it may mean for the world as we know it. The trigger of this catastrophe may have been free houses for those unable to pay, but it was compounded by money schemes too complex for those who invented them and those who invested in them. Now we read that the huge bubble was financed by the Chinese. According to several commentators, they enticed Americans to overspend for cheap goods, and then bought many of the bonds that financed America's debts. The Chinese hold a mortgage on America. Will they be content to accept re-financing at reasonable rates, or will they demand an early return of their capital? If the latter, we can expect political as well as economic upheaval.
Monday Dec 08, 2008
Posted by Ira Sharkansky
If I may be so bold as to issue some advice to President-Elect Barack Obama, it is to be cautious in the extreme about two issues on his agenda: Afghanistan and Israel-Palestine.
His campaign rhetoric included proclamations that Afghanistan is "the right war" "It's time to heed the call...for more troops...and "I'd send at least two or three additional combat brigades to Afghanistan."
Since then, Obama has been cautioned by a variety of experts. There are no clear signals as to his intentions as president.
Wednesday Jun 18, 2008
One definition of a good agreement is that no partner really likes it. That pretty much sums up how Israel and Hamas are viewing the terms of a cease fire for Gaza.
Sunday Jun 15, 2008
Posted by Ira Sharkansky
For all major decisions, including perhaps an invasion of Gaza, Olmert is waiting on the cross-examination of the witness who testified to some activities that look like deception, violation of duties, and perhaps money laundering, tax evasion, and acceptance of bribes. That witness seems flakey, and sometimes worse. He may fall apart in a cross examination.
If that happens, the electoral calculations of Kadima, Labor, and Likud may go back to where they were some time ago.
There is no reliable way of concluding what is the importance of each of the elements causing a delay with respect to a major operation in Gaza. Virtually everyone is saying that it is inevitable. Virtually no one is saying what form it will take, or that it will happen soon.
Wednesday Jun 11, 2008
Posted by Ira Sharkansky
Remember Yassir Arafat?
Until he was confined to a heavily damaged headquarters by the Israeli army, he traveled the world. He consulted with the Saudi king, with the princes of the Gulf Emirates, with Saddam Hussein and other Arab presidents, with European heads of state, and whoever was supposed to be in charge of the United Nations. News about those meetings dealt with one or another option the Palestinian leader was exploring at the time, and his pursuit of financial aid.
In the final analysis those trips did not seem to help the Palestinians or Arafat. When he died, his successors had to clean a few square meters of rubble from the courtyard of his headquarters in order to bury him.
Sunday Mar 02, 2008
Posted by Ira Sharkansky
The Secretary General of the United Nations has condemned Palestinians for directing their rockets against Israeli civilians, and Israel for a disproportionate response.
Both condemnations are appropriate. Israel's response is disproportionately light. Seven years ago the IDF should have begun sending one artillery shell into a neighborhood of Gaza for every missile that landed in an Israeli settlement.
Better late than never.
The operation began with the killing of a student at Sapir College, alongside Sderot, and the use of more accurate and powerful missiles that began landing in the city of Ashkelon. Those missiles came to Gaza from the international market, through the Sinai and nominal Egyptian control of Gaza's southern borders.
Tuesday Feb 26, 2008
Posted by Ira Sharkansky
We began reading in the press last week about the IDF's preparation for a Palestinian effort to break through the border from Gaza and into Israel. This was against the background of their destroying the southern border crossing, and pouring by the tens of thousands over several days into Egypt.
Palestinian aspirations were for upwards of 40,000 school children and others to join hands in a human chain from the southern to the northern boundaries of Gaza. The purpose was to call international attention to the suffering of Gaza under the Israeli blockade. Organizers said that it would be a peaceful demonstration, but the Palestinians themselves said that some groups were planning to break through into Israel.
Monday Feb 04, 2008
Posted by Ira Sharkansky
Two groups of Israelis should be celebrating the problems of their antagonists. There is not necessarily an overlap between them, but the coincidence warrants some discussion.
The largest group of Israelis that can celebrate is that which does not want a Palestinian state. The Palestinians have created two tiny enclaves, pretty much at war with one another.
The Gaza portion, under the control of Hamas, seems inclined to attach itself to Egypt for supplies, but the Egyptians are showing traditional coolness. They have erected one kind of barrier or another between themselves and the Palestinians of Gaza since 1948; and now the antipathy is made even greater by the Hamas regime and its affinity with the Muslim Brotherhood. It is those chaps we frequently see in courtroom cages while being tried for one or another kind of rebellion against the Egyptian government.
Monday Jan 21, 2008
Posted by Ira Sharkansky
You have probably seen pictures of families in Gaza sitting in the dark, and heard of five or more patients who have died in hospital due to the lack of electricity, as well as many thousands who are hungry.
It is a lovely campaign, that has already brought demands for Israel to stop the embargo of supplies to Gaza. The calls come from within Israel as well as from Europe and Arab governments, the United Nations, and humanitarian organizations.
The problem is that the image of suffering is in large part bluff, created by Palestinians who are exploiting an opportunity to obtain sympathy and support. Electricity continues to flow to Gaza from Israeli and Egyptian sources. Overall power is less than normally available, insofar as Palestinian officials are not using fuel still available to supplement imports of power with their own generating station. According to Israeli sources, there is enough electricity to allow the functioning of hospitals. The people who have died when life support has been shut off should be recorded as involuntary suicides for the sake of Palestine. They were killed by Palestinians in pursuit of public support.
Sunday Jan 20, 2008
Posted by Ira Sharkansky
"Wow!" is the only response possible to a headline from news.walla.co.il. "Fatah Threatens: We Will End the Cease Fire with Israel."
I had not noticed that there was a cease fire.
It did not seem like a cease fire when a gang of Palestinians, members of one of the several security forces supposedly directed by Fatah President Mahmoud Abbas, killed two Israeli hikers three weeks ago. Nor is it a cease fire that brings the IDF into cities of the West Bank, presumably controlled by Fatah, to deal with people wanted for violence against Israeli civilians.
Further down in the same article was the news that Abbas was threatening to resign as President of the Palestine National Authority, and end the peace process if Israel did not stop attacking fellow Palestinians in Gaza.
Does this mean that Israel should accept more than 50 missiles per day fired at its civilians, and not take any action?
Yesterday there was a report that Abbas complained to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and said that President Bush's dream of peace in the Middle East was in danger because of Israeli attacks. The report, from Palestinian sources, said that the Secretary of State would pressure the Israelis to stop the attacks.
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Window on Israel
Hebrew University Political Science professor evaluates the latest happenings in Israel.
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Recent Comments
Laine Frajberg Montreal: Response to John R #10,
Why not set an example John and return the southwest to Mexico which Pres. Polk STOLE fron Mexico in 1847?You Americans called it "manifest destiny".The rest of the world called it THEFT.
Till then you have no right to criticize Israel for taking-and keeping- land in a DEFENSIVE WAR.Now go away!
Laine Frajberg Montreal: Response to EdB #1,
Hey Ed,didn't your country steal northern Georgia from the Cherokee in 1838?You did this even though the Cherokee were at peace with you and your own Supreme Court declared that the Cherokee had a right to retain their land.Didn't make any difference.General Winfield Scott expelled them anyway-and over a quarter died on the way to their new homes.Contrast this with Israel,which
took east Jerusalem after being attacked by Jordan on June 5,1967-so indeed Israel's Jews have every right to build anywhere they want in Jerusalem.
David USA: Just when did Gilo become part of Jerusalem? Surely not at the time of David hamelech. When and by whose idea was Gilo "Jerusalemized "? Pretty soon Maale Adumin will also be Jerusalem. And why not Ariel ?? The sky is the limit when it comes to gerrymandering. (For instance, Montreal could become New York just at some poltician's say-so, even if Canada objects).
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