Window on Israel: 'We know better'

Is Iran pursuing the development of nuclear weapons or not?
 
Someone outside of the Iranian loop is not likely to find a clear answer .
 
Israeli officials are close to wetting their pants due to the change in United States intelligence estimates. Now it looks like the United States will not be attacking Iranian nuclear sites, and may not even be able to obtain any multi-national agreement to increase the weight of sanctions.
 
Mohammad El Baradei, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, is crowing that "we told you so," and has reaffirmed Iran's certificate of kashrut.
 
One suspects that more than a few Europeans, as well as Russians and Chinese, are happy to see a bit of egg on George W. Bush's face. The president who invaded Iraq on the basis of flawed intelligence is left with a sea change in his own intelligence on Iran. Reports are that the intelligence on Iraq was not simply flawed, but the product of an Iraqi who successfully pursued a scam on American operatives. As a result, there are several portions of egg on the face of the unpopular president.
 
Controversy about these changes in estimates may be academic for Americans, Europeans and others who are not on Iran's publicly announced list for annihilation. If the Americans got it wrong in 2003, and/or 2007, it is not too important. They have survived nuclear weapons in the hands of the Soviet Union/Russia, China, North Korea, India, Pakistan, and almost Libya. They will find a way to live with nuclear weapons in Iranian hands, if or when it comes to that.
 
What about Israel? Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is noted for denying the Holocaust, saying that if it did occur European countries must provide room for Israelis, because it is necessary to wipe Israel off the map.
 
I do not know for sure that Israeli policymakers are wetting their pants, but several of them have expressed something in the range of dismay, frustration, and indecision on account of the latest American intelligence estimate. Jewish activists are more forceful. One item that found its way to my mailbox this morning, from an American who calls herself the Founder and President of the Israeli Project:

New press reports today about the recently released National Intelligence Estimate report on Iran lead readers and viewers to believe that the Islamic Republic has ended its nuclear weapons program. We know better.

"We know better" consigns this message to my fat file labeled "Jewish junk." It is the kind of mindless panic that feeds skepticism about the Israeli enterprise.

Which does not mean that there is no cause for Israeli concern.

Shimon Peres is more cogent, prestigious, and persuasive than the Founder and President of the Israeli Project. He comes to this issue as President of Israel, holder of a Nobel Peace Prize, and several decades of being to the left of the Israeli center, an optimistic, tireless and often tiring worker for peace. He is less than impressed with the latest American intelligence estimate. If it is true, he asks, then why has Iran invested so heavily in developing long range missiles that can carry nuclear warheads?

In this and other intelligence estimates, there is nothing approaching certainty. The latest American estimate has provoked a number of inquiries far more profound than "We know better." I do not think we will see an American attack on Iran during the coming days, or a heavier set of economic sanctions against Iran. We can expect further inquiries about this intelligence estimate.