Window on Israel: The shape of things to come

Israel's election took place on February 10, and the results were known the next day. 

Remember that the Likud won fewer seats than Kadima, but President Shimon Peres, along with much of the population, concluded that the Likud would have a better chance of putting together a coalition that would get the support of a Knesset majority. So far, agreements have been reached with Israel Beiteinu, Labor, Shas and Habayit Hayehudi. Together with the Likud, they amount to 69 seats, a clear majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Negotiations continue with United Torah Judaism and National Unity.

Some Labor MKs may be angry enough with party leader Ehud Barak for joining Prime Minister-designate Binyamin Netanyahu's government that they will not support the coalition. Some members of the Likud may be angry enough with Netanyahu for giving away prized appointments that their support will be tepid. Individual Likud MKs may work subtly - or not so subtly - to undermine Netanyahu in the hope an early election can be brought about.

Coalition arithmetic begins with the number of Knesset seats held by each potential partner, and the goodies the prime minister-designate can trade for support. Prominent among these are ministerial positions and chairs of Knesset committees, commitments for expenditures on favored items and support for other policy issues.

The election results produced the following array of likely coalition partners:

Likud: 27 seats

Israel Beiteinu: 15

Labor: 13

Shas: 11

United Torah Judaism: 5

National Unity: 4

Habayit Hayehudi: 3

It is conventional to rank the ministries by prestige. There is some dispute at the margins, but the rankings look more or less like as follows. (The modest rankings of Health and Education reflect the importance of the Finance Ministry in setting expenditures, salaries, and service levels, the weight of Health Maintenance Organizations and teachers’ unions, and the autonomy of higher education.)

There are opportunities for dividing ministries to produce even more appointments, and to appoint deputy ministers and ministers without portfolio with vague or non-existent responsibilities.

The ministries likely to exist in Netanyahu's government, grouped by prestige, are:

Group I: Prime Minister; Defense; Finance; Foreign Affairs

Group II: Justice; Interior; Industry and Trade; Public Security; Transportation; Construction and Housing

Group III: Education; Health; Communications; Agriculture

Group IV: Labor; Welfare; Immigrant Absorption; Infrastructure; Culture; Tourism; Science; Environmental Protection; Religions; Minorities; Development of the Negev and Galilee; Minister in the Office of the Prime Minister (This is an extra, which may carry few if any significant duties.)

It has become conventional to appoint a Deputy Prime Minister. The title of Deputy Prime Minister carries prestige, and few if any duties except to act as the prime minister when the prime minister is out of the country or otherwise indisposed, and to assume the office upon death or resignation, until the Knesset acts otherwise. The designation may come along with a ministerial appointment, or can be an extra if there aren’t enough ministries to meet the demand.

Bibi's challenge was to win the support of several middle-sized or small parties, to reach a number of MKs as over 60 as possible. Each potential partner knew its importance, and demanded appointments and other benefits.

Parties and ministries as of now, with summary prestige indications:

Labor: Defense, Industry and Trade, Agriculture, Welfare, Minorities.

(That is, 1 Group I; 1 Group II, 1 Group III, 2 Group IV)

Israel Beiteinu: Foreign Affairs, Domestic Security, Infrastructure, Tourism, Immigrant Absorption.

(1 Group I, 1 Group II, 3 Group IV)

Shas: Interior, Construction and Housing, Religions. and minister in the prime minister’s office

(2 Group II, 2 Group IV)

Habayit Hayehudi: Science

(1 Group IV)

Likud: As of now, what's left over, along with the premiership, of course, is:  Finance, Justice, Transportation, Education, Health, Communications, Tourism, Environmental Protection, Culture, Sport, Minorities, Development of the Negev and Galilee.

(2 Group I, 1 Group II, 3 Group III, 6 Group IV)

There are also appointments as heads of Knesset Committees. Here, too, there are differences in prestige, the leading ones being Foreign Affairs and Defense, Finance, Constitution Law and Justice, Knesset Committee and State Audit. There are also sub-committees, some of which have greater prestige than full committees. There are traditions of appointing members of the opposition as chairs of certain committees. A prominent example is the Committee on State Audit, which focuses on the Office of the State Comptroller and its criticism of governmental bodies.

Beside ministerial appointments, the achievements of the coalition partners include:

Israel Beiteinu received the chair of the Knesset Committee of Constitution Law and Judiciary, a representative on the committee to appoint judges, and a commitment to find a solution for the problem of marriages involving individuals not recognized as Jewish by the Rabbinate.

Shas received a commitment to increase family allowances, i.e. monthly payments to families according to the number of children under the age of 18.

Labor received a period of rotation as chair of the Knesset Committee on Foreign Relations and Defense, and a commitment to increase old age pensions.

Habayit Hayehudi received a period of rotation as chairs of Knesset Committees of Education, and Children's Rights

Promised increases in family allowances and old age pensions, if delivered, will be expensive. Agreements to both required Netanyahu to slip aside from his often touted claim as being the finance minister in an earlier government who saved the economy by reducing welfare entitlements. It will also crimp his current promise to reduce taxes, already in trouble due to a reduction in tax collections as a result of the economic recession. Clips of Netanyahu criticizing the Olmert government for the expense of 25 ministers and deputy ministers appear along with prospects that his government will have 33.

There is a rough equivalence between the number of appointments received by each party and the number of seats won in the election. What will complicate Netanyahu's work among Likud members is the scarcity of key appointments left unfilled, and the number of  Likud MKs who think themselves especially worthy. Some of these were recruited to Likud by Netanyahu shortly before the election, seemingly with indications that they would be important members of his government. Netanyahu may also want to keep for himself the most prized of the as yet unfilled positions: minister of finance.

The Likud MKs likely to be expecting prized appointments are:

Silvan Shalom - prominent MK and former minister both of Finance and Foreign Affairs, and also a rival of Netanyahu's for party leadership

Moshe Ayalon - former Commander of the IDF, and one of Bibi's recruits to the Likud list

Benny Begin - son of the former prime minister, a politician in his own right, a former MK and minister, and one of Bibi's recruits to the Likud's list

Limor Livnat - prominent MK and former minister, and the highest ranking woman among Likud MKs

Don Meridor - former minister of finance and justice, and one of Bibi’s recruits to Likud’s list

Yosi Peled - retired general and prominent media commentator, and one of Bibi’s recruits to Likud’s list

Miri Regev - one of Bibi's recruits to Likud's list, and a former spokeswoman of the IDF who came to prominence during the 2006 Lebanon war

Ruby Rivlin - former chair of the Knesset, destined for that position again

Yuval Shteinitz, Gilad Ardon, Michael Eitan, Israel Katz and Gidon Sa'ar - prominent MKs

Still hanging are United Torah Judaism and National Unity. Together they would provide nine additional seats to the coalition, as well as additional problems. Torah Judaism would dig in its heels against provisions to ease the process of conversion to Judaism, and add to Shas's adamant posture against anything that facilitated the marriage of Jews to non-Jews, and even civil marriage for non-Jews. Israel Beiteinu depends on the support of Russian-speaking immigrants, among whom these items are high priority.

National unity might fit well with Israel Beiteinu on political negotiations with Palestinians and the rights and responsibilities of Israel's Arab citizens, but it would cause significant problems on these issues for Labor.

Bibi is likely to present his government for Knesset approval within a few days. Israeli law provides that it may serve a bit longer than four years. It has been a while since any government has served that long, and it is too early to bet on the life-span of this one.