Window on Israel: On the value of realism

What does the future hold?

Who knows? In Jewish tradition, Malachi was the last prophet, i.e., the last person to hear the word of God. He died  2,500 years ago. All else is speculation, whether colored by ideology, what the speculator would like to happen, or what is thought to be inevitable.

There are many who think that unless Israel shows more flexibility, its future will be nasty, brutal and short. It is likely that the Arabs will continue to multiply. Soon, if not already, they will be a majority between the Jordan and the Mediterranean. Their power will increase in international forums, not only because of numbers and oil, but because American and European governments will tire of Israel's stubbornness.

The settlements, in particular, are a problem. They must go, or at least be frozen, to satisfy the current demands of the Palestinians. Insofar as the Palestinian prime minister has said there will be state in two years, Israel must work hard to salvage what it can.

Dream on, those of you who forget, or who would not like to reckon with the element of power in international politics.

The Palestinians and their friends, including Americans and Europeans, have lost the Israeli Left. Meretz and Labor declined to their lowest polls ever in the previous election. Since then, the Labor leadership has coalesced with right-of-center Likud.

The Israeli government, and the dominant Jewish population, hold the keys to Israel's future. The country has a preponderance of military power in the area of conflict. It inflicted severe damage on Lebanon and Gaza in the most recent conflicts, and destroyed Syria's nuclear facility without a response. Greater powers have shown no signs of imposing their will.

Things do change, but no one knows the future. In the absence of certain knowledge, it is wise to assume that present realities will continue. Dreamers and ideologues may be right, but theirs is a risky bet.

While European and North American leftists, along with moderate allies, do not feel comfortable with what Israel has done, their governments have shown an understanding of the Israeli rationale.

No doubt the United Nations is firmly in the Palestinian camp. The most recent indication is the Secretary General's condemnation of Israel for its violation of Palestinian rights in east Jerusalem.

After an court ruled that a Jewish family was the owner of a disputed property, the police implemented the order, removed the Palestinian family, and allowed the Jewish family to move in. Palestinian neighbors scuffled with police while trying to block the transfer, and the UN Secretary General expressed his views.

When an Arab family moved into this building in French Hill, it did not require a court order, there was no demonstration by neighbors and the Secretary General of the UN did not take notice of the event.

And what if the Palestinians have, or acquire, a majority between the Jordan and the sea? Who will make Israel accept a one-state solution with majority rule? It is most likely that those who suffer from an increase in population and congestion in Palestine will be the Palestinians.

The security barrier being built between Israel and the West Bank may remain for fewer or more years than the Berlin Wall or the Great Wall of China.

It does not seem likely that the Israeli public will warm to the idea of removing settlements. The Palestinians have themselves to thank for that reluctance, due to all those rockets fired to Israel from Gaza, before and after the removal of settlements.

Nobody knows what God has in store for us. And nobody knows the future of international politics. That will depend on numerous events, some already seen but others to unfold tomorrow, next year and later, beyond anyone's capacity to predict.

Israel's advantages may not last forever. The British, French, Dutch, Portuguese, Belgian, German, Spanish, and Soviet empires are no longer with us. The United States is changing in its cultures and economy, and the greatness of its power is no more assured than that of all those empires.

We would all be wiser if we left the future out of the conversation, and concentrated on what is likely to make the present more tolerable.

Israeli leaders have made decent offers to Palestinians, in 2000 and 2008. Now it is time to hear from the Palestinians, other than their unchanging demands for "More."