Window on Israel: Netanyahu vs Livni, Obama vs McCain

While the American election is reaching a boil, Israeli elections are beginning to simmer. We go to the polls to select local mayors and councils on November 11, and again on February 10 to select a new Knesset.
  
Israeli polls are showing a close race between Binyamin Netanyahu's Likud and Tzipi Livni's Kadima, with Ehud Barak's Labor in danger of falling into the dustbin. Neither of the major parties seem likely to get more than a quarter of the vote, so there will be a lot of work after the election to put together a coalition.
 
Nothing on the horizon speaks of major change. The ultra-Orthodox parties will get their 10-12 percent of the vote; the Arab parties 8 percent or so, whether or not their talk of uniting amounts to anything; National Religious and other right wing parties, also talking about uniting, will get 10-12 percent; left-wing Meretz perhaps 5 percent. The once mighty Labor may be left with less than 10 percent.
 
Polls are showing that the Pensioners' Party will disappear. It rode into the Knesset for the first and perhaps last time as a vehicle of protest against all the other parties. This time Netanyahu has reinvigorated Likud, and Livni has made herself a symbol of clean government. There may not be enough voters protesting everything to give the Pensioners' a chance.
 
We have yet to hear from the Marijuana Party, the Taxi Drivers' Party, the Party of Endangered Males concerned with better deals in divorce, or a host of ethnic parties (Romanian, Russian, Ethiopian, Georgian) that pop up to assert that their people on the lists of the major parties are not good enough.
 
Ehud Olmert is showing signs of being an active caretaker. He made a generous decision concerning money for the universities that will allow their presidents to cancel a planned closure and begin the academic year. Olmert's decision angered the Minister of Finance and key members of his bureaucracy ("He gave the universities more than they asked for.") An Israeli should always wait for the actual delivery of the cash. Bureaucrats have more than a few ways to delay, reduce, or even veto the decisions of politicians. I will begin my seminar on schedule as a volunteering pensioner, but not guarantee that the university's doors will remain open throughout the semester.
 
Olmert is also saying that he will continue negotiations with the Syrians and Palestinians. "Not kosher" are the responses from a leader of an ultra-Orthodox party and from Tzipi Livni, who is currently the Foreign Minister. The rules are that a transitional government (sitting when an election is scheduled) is to continue existing policies, deal with emergencies, but not to take steps that will commit the next government. There are threats to enlist the Attorney General in order to keep Olmert in line. The Attorney General can rule that the sitting prime minister cannot engage in substantive talks, or he can issue an indictment against the prime minister for criminal violations. Israel's justice system moves with the speed of an injured snail. It may be time to push things along.
 
Two other lame ducks may be encouraging Olmert in order to get them all a better hearing from historians. George W. Bush and Condoleezza Rice have scheduled meetings with Olmert, and Ms Rice with Mahmoud Abbas. It is not yet the end of the year in which they wanted a deal between Israel and the Palestinians.
 
There are also sparks coming out of Israel's municipal elections. They produce more light than heat, insofar as governing is largely in the hands of national ministries. Jerusalem's contest is focusing on the efforts of a secular figure to take the mayor's office from the ultra-Orthodox. Tel Aviv finds a socialist-environmentalist, who won a seat in the Knesset as the one Jew high on the list of a largely Arab party, running against the Labor Party mayor.
 
Will the outcome of the American election affect Israeli politics? Israelis generally are not enthusiastic about Barack Obama. Americans in Israel are said to be voting heavily in favor of McCain, which reflects the large incidence of Orthodox Jews among recent immigrants from the United States. Officials stick to the line that they do not interfere in another country's election by stating a preference, and can work with whoever wins. News from America is that 70 percent of Jews are in Obama's camp, along with some intense opposition to him from other Jews. 
 
Obama and McCain have said they will devote increased energy to settling the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. That makes Israelis nervous about both candidates. If there is any good coming out of the global financial crisis, it may be that it keeps whoever governs the United States busy at home with economic issues, and overseas with the big players in international finance. Those do not include the Jews of this small place.