Window on Israel: Israel knows how to say no

The new administration in Washington is down on the floor wrestling with economic problems that are world class and historic in their severity.

Along with that, the campaign theme of Change, some of the new people in Washington and a host of wannabes have sought to refresh some old slogans about the Middle East. They may assert their support for Israel and concern for its future, but they talk about tough love and pressuring Israel to accommodate what they see as essential facts.

Chief among these is their perception that Jewish settlements in the West Bank are a key - perhaps the key - to accommodation. There is also certainty about the trends of Jewish and Arab growth in the area between the Jordan and the Mediterranean. If there is no agreement, in their view, Arabs will overcome the Jews demographically. The best result imaginable will be one state. The Jews will be a minority, sooner or later the place will be called Palestine, and there will be another Jewish migration.

A few words on trend lines, usually considered important in projecting what is likely to happen.

Compare China and the United States on the one hand, and Palestine and Israel on the other hand.

Trend analysis indicates that the United States has more to worry about than Israel. The sleeping giant has woken up. China is getting stronger. It has acquired enough leverage on United States Government bonds to make some Americans worry about their independence.

Am I predicting that China will overtake the US in the near future? No.

The distant future? Also no, but that is an open question. It depends on too many things capable of confounding a prediction.

Trend lines show a weaker case for predicting Israel's collapse. Looking backward to the 1930s when the Jews of Palestine began to accept territorial compromises they considered unpleasant, Palestinians and other Arabs rejected them in the expectations of overcoming the Jews. In the almost 80 years since that began, there has been a growth in Israel's economic and military capacity, along with stagnating or diminishing Palestinian well-being and strength. Most recently, the political split in Palestine, civil violence, poverty, destruction, and dependence on outside aid are most prominent in Gaza. The West Bank is in better shape, but it depends on Israeli security actions against Hamas inroads. If Hamas succeeds in its aspirations, the West Bank might become like Gaza.

Does this assure Israel's safety? No.

Prediction is risky. Lots of variables, some of them not currently on the screen, will influence what happens. Only the naive are certain of their predictions. Nonetheless, projections from the recent past are useful. Trends do not always continue, but they usually do.

There are several points to make about Israeli resilience.

It is strengthened by a willingness to accommodate international pressure, shown most notably by Oslo in 1993, and Camp David and Taba in 2000.

It has shown a capacity to reject some of the demands coming from Palestinians and others.

Under this heading we can place the most recent rejection of demands from Hamas and much of the Israeli public to "pay any price" for the release of the Israeli prisoner. The government was ready to release a number of prisoners with "blood on their hands," but not those involved in the most heinous of actions. Individuals might quarrel about the willingness to release X and not Y, but the important point is that Israel knows how to say no.

It has also overlooked sweeping demands to withdraw Jewish settlements from the West Bank. A positive response seems unlikely after the withdrawal from Gaza produced several thousand rocket attacks against Israeli civilians.

The demographic threat of Palestine is real, but those likely to suffer are Palestinians. Israel knows how to defend its borders. The growth in population threatens Palestinians with continued poverty.

The Holocaust, and the persecution of Jews in Arab lands, are often used as moral justifications of Israel's existence.

They are also useful as explanations of Israel's continuing resistance to pressure from western governments.

Survivors of the Holocaust and refugees from Arab lands have pretty much left the scene. However, their children and grandchildren are running the country. If you want to see tough, look again at those pictures from Gaza. Some Israelis disagreed about the operation and expressed dismay at the death and destruction. Jews tolerate dispute, but the support for the action remains considerable.

Prime Minister-designate Binyamin Netanyahu has talked about shelving the idea of a Palestinian state. That has brought expressions of shock and dismay, as well as threats, from Western capitals. The words suggest that Israel may have voted itself into an unpleasant corner.

Those who know Netanyahu well realize that he often acts more pragmatically than he speaks. Moreover, his capacity to create a government is not certain, nor is his ability to keep it going with a thin majority in the Knesset and tensions in his own party. But all those threats and expressions of dismay about what he has said may be nothing more than lip service. When western diplomats look at the record of Palestinian rejection and infighting, they see something other than political enlightenment.

Take another look at those trend lines. There is no indication that Israel is falling apart. They do not assure continued prosperity or survival. They do justify optimism among Israelis and those who claim to be its friends.