Sunday Nov 23, 2008

The Warped Mirror: Palestinian strategic options

Posted by Petra Marquardt-Bigman
Comments: 13
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Judging from some of the talkbacks, the recent Jerusalem Post editorial that welcomed the Palestinian Authority's advertisement of the 2002 Saudi-inspired Arab League peace initiative under the title Yes to 'salam' didn't really qualify as a crowd pleaser. By contrast, there was quite a bit of talkback applause for an article by Louis Rene Beres, a professor of International Law, who argued that "the so-called 'Palestinian Territories' are not occupied by Israel" and that "a Palestinian state would severely threaten the very existence of Israel."

Given the experience after Israel's disengagement from Gaza, it is obviously not very difficult to make the case that further withdrawals could pose grave security risks to Israel. But anybody who is ready to argue that it is therefore in Israel's best interest to hold on to the territories beyond the 1967 borders would do well to have a look at a recent report issued by the Palestine Strategy Study Group (PDF version ).

The group, whose work was financed by a grant from the European Union, outlines what its members consider the most promising "strategic options" available to the Palestinians. These options include a call to abandon negotiations once and for all, and to then proceed to dissolve the Palestinian Authority in order to force Israel to bear the "full burden of the costs of occupation". In addition, there is the proposal to work "to maximise the cost of continuing occupation for Israel, and to make the whole prospect of unilateral separation unworkable;" ultimately, the goal would be to "shift from a two state outcome to a (bi-national or unitary democratic) single state outcome as Palestinians' preferred strategic goal. This reopens a challenge to the existence of the State of Israel in its present form, but in an entirely new and more effective way than was the case before 1988."

To be sure, those who hope to mount "a challenge to the existence of the State of Israel in its present form" have widely divergent hopes and motivations: some want to see an Islamic state to take the place of Israel, others hope that, by forcing Israel to absorb the Palestinians, it would be possible to simultaneously put an end to the detested Jewish state and to avoid the emergence of a Palestinian Islamic state.

But what is perhaps most striking is that these Palestinian "strategists" talk so openly about forcing Israel to bear the "full burden of the costs of occupation" - after all, Palestinian activists usually describe the occupation as benefitting Israel.

In this context, it's worthwhile to check out how the Electronic Intifada's Ali Abunimah comments on the strategy paper: He notes approvingly that the paper "calls on Palestinians to reject and expose the deceptive language of 'peacemaking' and 'state-building' that have been used to conceal and perpetuate a lived reality of expulsion, domination and occupation at IsraelÂ’s hands." Abunimah is of course an ardent advocate of the so-called "one-state solution", and clearly enough, "peacemaking" and "state-building" are nothing he wants to see happening. What is quite intriguing is that he points out that there are "major, substantive discrepancies between the English and Arabic versions" of the strategy paper; according to Abunimah, the Arabic version uses "firmer language in line with long-standing official Palestinian positions" - no surprise here...

Abunimah questions in the title of his commentary if the paper really advocates a "new Palestinian strategy or the same failed one." For him, the only worthwhile "new Palestinian strategy" would be an unequivocal call for a "one-state solution." But the fact of the matter is that the Palestinians rejected "peacemaking" and "state-building" long before there was any Israeli occupation - indeed, they rejected it long before there was Israel.

So while this is clearly an old strategy, once Israel was established, the main purpose of this rejection was to deny Israel its legitimacy - and again, this hasn't changed. Those who argue that Israel should accept the Palestinian reluctance to show a serious commitment to "peacemaking" and "state-building" risk to inadvertently support those who hope that the occupation will last long enough, and that settlements will spread far enough to make a "one-state solution" inevitable.

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1  |  Rivka Mostow, Sunday Nov 23, 2008
Nothing new in their attitude. The big question is when are WE going to open our ears, face the real music and do something about the players.
2  |  Avi R, Monday Nov 24, 2008
A brilliant, timely article laying the realities bare. Thanks.
3  |  Gary Sutton, Monday Nov 24, 2008
Another state between the river and Israel is not viable, geopolitically, economically and in a military sense.militarily. It will never happenfor the Arabs must be governed by arabs. Even though Jordan is, by international law, a country created superficially with no rights whatsoever, but given as a gift for alleged services rendered to the British empire to a Saudi "prince", it is the only political entity capable to absorb territories in the West Bank populated with their own people. Since Jordan depends on Israel for its security this solution is within reach if and when vigouresly pursued.
4  |  akus md USA, Monday Nov 24, 2008
Petra - there's something messed up about the link to the PSG article -use the HTM version. Significant is their dismissal of the Egypt/Jordanian option, which is the only sensible, workable, solution. They conveniently overlook recent Palestinian polls showing 40% support for this solution. I would guess the number is higher on the WB than Gaza, but the data I have seen do not break down the responses by territory. The call to abandon negotiations is nothing other than a suggestion that a third intifada will somehow improve the Palestinians ability to force Israel to give them what they want.
5  |  Said, London, Monday Nov 24, 2008
Gary Sutton: "Even though Jordan is, by international law, a country created superficially with no rights whatsoever.." An interesting comment, given that Israel was created the same way. By the way, who gave the British the right to parcel out land when they didn't even own it? A Mandate is something you administer for the benefit of the population until thyey can take over. Clearly, dividing the land to give 55% of it to a minority of, at most, 30% is NOT beneficial to the people - and 60 years of bloodshed is the proof. It seems legitimacy is only conferred to one's friends, not universally
6  |  david singer, Tuesday Nov 25, 2008
Said: The Mandate given to Britain by the League of Nations in 1922 was to reconstitute the Jewish National Home in Palestine which at that time included what is today called Israel ,Gaza, the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) and Jordan. This was to be done without prejudice to the civil and religious rights of the non-Jewish communities living there. Arab self determination was to be granted in the other 99.99% of the lands freed from the Ottoman Empire by Britain and France in World War 1. Jordan remains the key to resolving the citizenship of the Arabs in the West Bank and Gaza.
7  |  L.W, Tuesday Nov 25, 2008
Great article, Petra, the Ali Abunimah link is astonishing. Heartened that you along with the other "big hitters" kept your distance depriving the babble that followed the Andrea Becker article, of credibility.
8  |  Harold F USA, Tuesday Nov 25, 2008
There will be a Palestinian state when Said converts to Judaism! He's probably already circumsized, so hes; halfway home. After all, there is no Islam with Judasim! Copy cats! As for 60 yrs of bloodshed...whose fault is that...Said, I'll tell you..its called RADICAL ISLAM!
9  |  Petra, Bat Yam, Wednesday Nov 26, 2008
AKUS: You're right to point out that the Jordanian option is considerably more realistic than the "one-state solution" these European-financed Palestinian "strategists" seem to prefer; yet, there are also quite a few serious problems with the Jordanian option, among them e.g. how to avoid destabilizing Jordan if its Palestinian population will be the absolutely overwhelming majority; 2) how to solve the 1:1 landswap to which Israel is all but committed if Gaza is not part of the deal.
10  |  Petra, Bat Yam, Wednesday Nov 26, 2008
LW--I'm traveling, and have a lousy internet connection on the road, so I didn't spent much time on the net these past few days, and didn't know at first what you meant with the "Andrea Becker article" -- now I know... Well, one thing is clear: it pays in terms of comments to publish straightforward Hamas propaganda...
11  |  akus md USA, Wednesday Nov 26, 2008
Petra - I'm not that sure about destabilizing Jordan - the WBers have very strong traditional ties to Jordan, and I believe that a solid majority would welcome being part of a larger, stable confederation. I thin Giora Eiland's discussion of this option is extremely enlightening, and he has, I would think, excellent contacts among leading WBers to be accurate in his assessments. Looks like I'm being super-moderated on CIF today - too many parrot jokes during the night!
12  |  david singer, Thursday Nov 27, 2008
Petra #9 The only solution that has any chance of working is the redrawing of the boundaries between Jordan,Israel and Egypt as determined in trilateral negotiations between those three states. The heavily populated Arab areas of the West Bank would become part of Jordan, the heavily polulated Jewish areas would become part of Israel. Under this proposal no Arab or Jew would need to leave his existing home. Egypt and Gaza would decide who should be given sovereignty in Gaza. The creation of a new Arab state between Israel,Jordan and Egypt has no basis in history,geography or demography.
13  |  DisgustedNFedup, Saturday Nov 29, 2008
We have Olmert who is on a life-support-system,and at the same time is having a fire sale of Israeli assets.With leaders like Olmert no wonder we have Gilad Shalit still rotting in Gaza,just a few Ks from our border,we have the ISM running riot all over the place,Peace now calling the shots, and a new boat service that is running between Gaza and Cyprus and now Libya has opened a branch and a new route to Gaza,the High Court and Meni Mazuz are running the country.Why should we need to worry,after all it is only 15 to midnight.
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